mob1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There's also more separation on most modela between the Thursday low and this one, I believe one of the 2 strorms will give UA at least advisory level snows but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hopefully by "paying the price" for enduing brutal cold, we get rewarded with snow, tho unfortunately Mother Nature isn't always that kind. Gonna be an interesting week or 2 for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Upton FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTSWITH MODELS UNCERTAIN ON WHERE THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK. THE ONEMAIN DIFFERENCE THOUGH IS THE CLIPPER LOW MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKENDAND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG HIGH TOWORK WITH MOVING INTO MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. THAT IS A CRUCIALINGREDIENT IN MANY POTENTIAL WINTER STORMS. RIGHT NOW...SOME CURRENTMODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AROUND 6-7 INCHES OF SNOWWITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF FLUCTUATION BETWEENMODEL RUNS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING THE GFSSNOW TO QPF RATIOS...THE RATIOS ARE CLOSE TO 17 TO 1...DUE TO THESIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIRMASS WITHIN THE REGION. THERE IS FORECAST TOBE A WIDER AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS LOW DUE TO THE INCREASEDBAROCLINICITY SHOWN IN THE THERMAL FIELDS AS WELL AS LESSPROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPINGWEST OF THE REGION.THE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE PORTRAYED WITHIN THE VARIABLE TRACKS OF THELOW. IF THE TROUGH CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE LOW FARTHEROFFSHORE...TRENDS WILL BE LESS WITH SNOW WITH THE WEEKEND CLIPPERSYSTEM BUT PROBABLY THERE WILL BE COLDER AMBIENT TEMPERATURESLOCALLY. IF THE TROUGH DOES NOT DEEPEN ENOUGH THOUGH AND THERE IS ASLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES...THE TRACK COULD BEVERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOWCENTER CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO FEATURE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH SO SNOWWILL BE ONLY PRECIP TYPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Do we have any idea on timing of this potential system....was planning a trip down to AC Sunday - Monday with some friends since we all have off for president's day....hoping that we don't get snowed out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Do we have any idea on timing of this potential system....was planning a trip down to AC Sunday - Monday with some friends since we all have off for president's day....hoping that we don't get snowed out.. This storm looks to be Saturday into Sunday... so unless the timing changes then your trip should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This storm looks to be Saturday into Sunday... so unless the timing changes then your trip should be OK. Well we would be leaving Sunday morning. Too far out still and with Thursday's threat possibly monkeying up the works, I'll hold tight until we get a cleaner picture. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well we would be leaving Sunday morning. Too far out still and with Thursday's threat possibly monkeying up the works, I'll hold tight until we get a cleaner picture. Thanks! Yea the more separation we can get between the two storms would benefit us... but with such a progressive pattern we need something to slow it down for us so the coastal can develop further WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 First storm screws second storm as per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We have a closed 500mb low over Washington DC and almost no precip to show for it outside of an inverted trough that nails Philly and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 First storm screws second storm as per GFS. Take a look at h5. It looks great. We need a little more amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We have a closed 500mb low over Washington DC and almost no precip to show for it outside of an inverted trough that nails Philly and SNJ. Yup it basically puts us in a snow hole if the Gfs is right. That would be something if it verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yup it basically puts us in a snow hole if the Gfs is right. That would be something if it verified good thing there is zero percent chance it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 One of the better mid level maps you will see , however the SLP has taken off 300 miles to it`s NE . Aloft you could not ask for better ,we have some time to sort that out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Kind of odd to have the surface jump so east with this setup aloft. The PNA is going to reach its highest amplitude around this time so something is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hard to keep hopes up when nothing has come together for NYC this winter. Things looked good for Thursday until they didn't. Maybe this storm holds something different, but it's hard to stay optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This event still had upside...if anything need to watch for inv trough as they like to trend north east as we get closer...h5 look is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 good thing there is zero percent chance it will It's winter 2015. Of course it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Per Tip in the NE thread: NCEP made the salient point this morning that it's majority is of arctic origin, relaying over the arctic ocean from Siberia... I do think there is some chance that the heights in the west Atlantic are not responding enough to the forcing as these systems hit the bottom of the trough. Ex, prior to the blizzard, which was also bumped E for a while, this was also evidence inside of 72 hours, when the isopleths began "bending" more anticyclonic S of Nova Scotia. Another way to look at this is what I was just discussing in the other thread. The flow seems too stretched in having an anchored western ridge axis... It may be hard to get the imagination around a correction of this nature, but this could all be bumped back west for that alone, and it would really only take what? 2 ... 3 deg of longitude -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM/UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM/UKIE? miss and miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM/UKIE? Canadian is wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Per Tip in the NE thread: NCEP made the salient point this morning that it's majority is of arctic origin, relaying over the arctic ocean from Siberia... I do think there is some chance that the heights in the west Atlantic are not responding enough to the forcing as these systems hit the bottom of the trough. Ex, prior to the blizzard, which was also bumped E for a while, this was also evidence inside of 72 hours, when the isopleths began "bending" more anticyclonic S of Nova Scotia. Another way to look at this is what I was just discussing in the other thread. The flow seems too stretched in having an anchored western ridge axis... It may be hard to get the imagination around a correction of this nature, but this could all be bumped back west for that alone, and it would really only take what? 2 ... 3 deg of longitude -- Certainly on the table. A few of the events last year (especially the 2 on the arctic waves) came back within 48 hrs. Wouldn't count on it, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Norlun feature is interesting the gfs has had it for a while but we know how those things usually work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Norlun feature is interesting the gfs has had it for a while but we know how those things usually work out. It's a great set up for one, but will bounce around a lot until Saturday. Ggem had it and prints out .5 for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Slowly losing this one also outside some light snow. Euro digging less...light snow Saturday after noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 2-4 for the area from light snow and inv trough on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Def a powder keg on the Euro...would be like 4-5 of feathers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 the short wave ahead of the system on friday needs to not be there if you want a consolidated snowstorm to hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Def a powder keg on the Euro...would be like 4-5 of feathers All the ingredients are still there - this is going to take a few more days to finalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All the ingredients are still there - this is going to take a few more days to finalize. It's trending in the wrong direction on par for seasonal trends. This is a 1-3/2-4 type event now with bitter temps at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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