tomcatct Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-4 is more likely with windswept snow.Hopefully the trough sets up shop over the area so we can all get buried. Man, I wish I lived in SNE. Another 12+ for them and possibly more next week.I love snow too Ant, but they're situation up there from Boston to Maine is becoming seriously disruptive and life threatening...definitely historic but dangerous...any the added extreme cold won't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD135 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/VORTEX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES ANDNORTHEAST......INTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NEW ENGLAND ON SUN...PREFERENCE: NON-GEM CONSENSUSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEON THE LARGER SCALE...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON APOWERFUL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ANDTHROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. THEGUIDANCE SHOWS AN INTENSE VORTEX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHCROSSES THE REGION...AND THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AVERY INTENSE LOW CENTER DEVELOPING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND ON SUN.AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z UKMET TEND TO BE A BITFASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM WITH THE HEIGHT FALLEVOLUTION. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLYGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF A VERY INTENSE LOW CENTER WRAPPINGUP CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND THEN LIFTING NORTH TO NEARTHE GULF OF MAINE SUN MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT LEFT OFTHE NAM AND UKMET...WITH THE GEM BECOMING A BIT OF AN OUTLIER INBEING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THELATEST SPREAD WITHIN THE GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS FAVORS THE IDEA OFGOING WITH A NON-GEM CONSENSUS...OR ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THENAM/GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 New SREF is another bump south and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 09z SREF mean just made a major shift southwest. Just about entire area 0.25"+. Exception is southwest of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 09z SREF mean just made a major shift southwest. Just about entire area 0.25"+. Exception is southwest of the city. EWR in the 0.25"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EWR in the 0.25"+? Real close, right on the line. It cuts the 5 boroughs in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any word on Nam ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any word on Nam ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM is digging more than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM is digging more than 06z. ..and a little more downstream ridging. The trend to dig this more is relentless, this will not be as big of a south move as we saw at 00z last night, but it is another clear tick south and sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 995mb on the Central NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any chance of this being a 6 + snowfall for coastal Monmouth county? Thoughts please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not much change on the track of the 500mb low, right over the southern half of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any chance of this being a 6 + snowfall for coastal Monmouth county? Thoughts please No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The trough had less of a negative tilt so even though the track of the 500mb low was about the same this was a drier run. Low takes longer to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not much change on the track of the 500mb low, right over the southern half of NJ. Yup...pretty close to 06z run, but sharpness of the trough may help it go negative a bit sooner. height lines made a nice bump west over the New England coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Boston almost gets the shaft this run, heaviest snows to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SV maps show 2-4" over a lot of the area. 3-5" for NW NJ and 5"+ for Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 West of the city this is a 6-8hr burst of steady light to moderate snow. Over Long Island it could last well into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 West of the city this is a 6-8hr burst of steady light to moderate snow. Over Long Island it could last well into Sunday morning. Starting to come into a consensus. Light to moderate snow event with howling winds. The NAM digs the 500mb low ever so slightly further south but it isn't enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM wants to bring through a lot of moisture with the initial 500mb low, that's why NW areas do slightly better than the city. And then the city almost gets dry slotted as the mid-level centers pass closebye before the inverted trough takes over for LI. A lot of SNE gets the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Starting to come into a consensus. Light to moderate snow event with howling winds. The NAM digs the 500mb low ever so slightly further south but it isn't enoughYeah, about 2-4 area wide and perhaps a little more out on long island and the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big shaft zone in Western and Southern New England. The coastal is too far offshore and the inverted trough goes towards LI and the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where ever that norlun like feature/convergence zone sets up (picked up nicely on the NAM) probably will get close to 6".... from Union County/NW looks like a general 2-4"..with more inside the norlun feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Brilliant sir jest brilliant The watch watch has been upgraded to a watch warning. This means a watch is imminent or already in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 here ya go. 2-4 for most folks total qpf for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Solid warning criteria snowfall for the Eastern Hudson Valley and the Eastern 2/3rds of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Solid warning criteria snowfall for the Eastern Hudson Valley and the Eastern 2/3rds of Long Island. and a good chunk of SWCT. NAM gives the above area more than Boston...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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