Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'd say 12:1. Anything higher is a gift. Winds are screaming. I'm inclined to agree but I don't want to answer in definites if I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, just curious wonder what snow rates well be liking at, ill be plowing and hopefully don't have to go to any fire/ rescue calls. With talks of big winds, epic cold, as some say, power outages be concerning Not to mention snow drifts, etc etc. Gotta love mother nature when she's mad she's mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Happy medium of the2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Happy medium of the2?Honestly, Rjay is correct and I shouldn't be answering with such confidence on the ratios. At the end of the day, ratios are incredibly hard to predict as not only are they poorly understood, but an incredible amount of factors play into them. The winds look like they will be screaming, but temperatures look pretty primed for optimal snow growth. Vertical Velocities also look favorable for significant snow growth and higher ratios, so things look good in that department. Yet liquid equivalent itself may even play a limiting favor role. All things considered I would expect about 12/13:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm really torn over this storm. Usually I am always rooting for more snow. I love snow and snow for me is money. If this epic period in Boston hit Columbia instead of Harvard I would pay for a get together for this subform. (Assuming I was alive!!!!) The reason I am apprehensive for larger amounts I would have to be outside for long periods in what will be just insane cold. Everyone knows what the buildings in Manhattan do to wind. So personally I hope LI (home) scores I'm ok with the city not this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00Z Friday GEM-LAM radar valid at 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00Z Friday RGEM ensemble MSLP map valid at 12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 00Z Friday RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People shouldn't write this off just yet based on the overall model outcomes this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 High Wind Watches Up Upton URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY400 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY...CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-132200-/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.150215T0500Z-150215T2300Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-400 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...NEWYORK CITY...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHWESTERNCONNECTICUT.* HAZARDS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYAFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES...AND MAKE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES. BLOWING SNOW MAYMAKE TRAVEL AND SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS DIFFICULT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUSHIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS.&& Mt.Holly URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ416 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...A POSSIBLY DAMAGING HIGH WIND EVENT COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHTINTO SUNDAY...NJZ009-010-012>015-018>020-026-027-PAZ060-070-071-101>106-132200-/O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0001.150215T0300Z-150215T1900Z/HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN416 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYAFTERNOON...* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TIMING...THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES, POSSIBLY LASTING FORMORE THAN 24 HOURS. DO NOT PARK VEHICLES WHERE TREES CAN FALL ONTHEM. MAKE SURE ALL CELL PHONE AND ELECTRONIC DEVICES ARE FULLYCHARGED. IF YOU HAVE GENERATORS, PLEASE MAKE SURE THEY AREWORKING PROPERLY AND PROPERLY VENTILATED. EXPECT BRIDGERESTRICTIONS.* SNOW...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOONINTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A BURST OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WITHINAN HOUR IS POSSIBLE AROUND DINNER TIME SATURDAY. THE WIND WILLCAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PROBLEMS.* WIND CHILLS...AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUSHIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great read on why this is not a norlun trough. http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 all the talk about high ratios... rendered irrelevant with 60 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Very close for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 all the talk about high ratios... rendered irrelevant with 60 mph wind gusts.The winds aloft are going to totally kill high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 People in NE thread said that the new GFS has come more SW again. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know it is not in range but the 4k NAM looks good for long island. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015021306/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know it is not in range but the 4k NAM looks good for long island. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015021306/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png People in NE thread said that the new GFS has come more SW again. Thoughts? Yes, the low moved from around the Edison area. To Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Today's runs are the dealio. The board will be hoppin and boppin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Today's runs are the dealio. The board will be hoppin and boppinWhat are we looking at here ?? 2-4" im more concerned with the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UPTON IN GENERAL...LOOKING AT A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NYC/NJMETRO...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...ANDCENTRAL/WESTERN LI WITH EITHER HIGHER QPF(EAST) AND/OR BETTER SNOWRATIOS (NORTH). POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERNLI...PARTICULARLY TWIN FORKS...AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WITHLONGER BANDING POTENTIAL.IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THESE MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS...ALWAYSUNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND WHERE HEAVY SNOWBANDING WILL DEVELOP/AND SIT. TYPICALLY THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCEAND A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF BANDING...SO LIKELY SOMESTRONG SNOW GRADIENTS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FORMULATED BY STAYINGCLOSE TO GENERAL OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICPLACEMENT AND OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE QPF PLACEMENT...IN COORDINATIONWITH WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS.IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASESATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM W TO E. WITH OPERATIONALMODELS INDICATING 950 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH STEEPLOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON BACKSIDE OF BOMBING LOW LATE SAT NIGHTINTO SUNDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 55 KT GUST POTENTIAL INTHE AVERAGED MIXED LAYER WINDS...WITH 60 TO 65 KT AT TOP OF MIXEDLAYER. GIVES POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITHGUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ISSUEDHIGH WIND WATCH BASED ON THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UPTON IN GENERAL...LOOKING AT A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN LI WITH EITHER HIGHER QPF(EAST) AND/OR BETTER SNOW RATIOS (NORTH). POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN LI...PARTICULARLY TWIN FORKS...AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WITH LONGER BANDING POTENTIAL. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THESE MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS...ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDING WILL DEVELOP/AND SIT. TYPICALLY THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE AND A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF BANDING...SO LIKELY SOME STRONG SNOW GRADIENTS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FORMULATED BY STAYING CLOSE TO GENERAL OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC PLACEMENT AND OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE QPF PLACEMENT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM W TO E. WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING 950 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON BACKSIDE OF BOMBING LOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 55 KT GUST POTENTIAL IN THE AVERAGED MIXED LAYER WINDS...WITH 60 TO 65 KT AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER. GIVES POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH BASED ON THIS.[/quo I think it does not include higher ratios 3 to 6 would be better call for NYC to Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What are we looking at here ?? 2-4" im more concerned with the wind. yup, a quick hittle 1-3/2-4 type event, more over long island. wind and cold will be the bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For us e majority of the snow will prob fall before the winds really pick up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What are we looking at here ?? 2-4" im more concerned with the wind. 2-4/3-6 inches for the NYC metro area with more towards Eastern LI. Todays runs are going to be big to see where the trough sets up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2-4/3-6 inches for the NYC metro area with more towards Eastern LI. Todays runs are going to be big to see where the trough sets up shop. It's probably a 3 to 4 event for KNYC with 40 mph winds. 6 probably starts at the NS border This is off to your east. Think smaller totals man. So you are not disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's probably a 3 to 4 event for KNYC with 40 mph winds. 6 probably starts at the NS boarder This is off to your east. Think smaller totals man. So you are not disappointed 2-4 is more likely with windswept snow.Hopefully the trough sets up shop over the area so we can all get buried. Man, I wish I lived in SNE. Another 12+ for them and possibly more next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS shows gusts to 70 MPH for the city, likely overdone but winds should still be very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UPTON IN GENERAL...LOOKING AT A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN LI WITH EITHER HIGHER QPF(EAST) AND/OR BETTER SNOW RATIOS (NORTH). POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN LI...PARTICULARLY TWIN FORKS...AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WITH LONGER BANDING POTENTIAL. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THESE MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEMS...ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND WHERE HEAVY SNOW BANDING WILL DEVELOP/AND SIT. TYPICALLY THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE AND A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF BANDING...SO LIKELY SOME STRONG SNOW GRADIENTS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS WERE FORMULATED BY STAYING CLOSE TO GENERAL OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC PLACEMENT AND OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE QPF PLACEMENT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM W TO E. WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING 950 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON BACKSIDE OF BOMBING LOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 55 KT GUST POTENTIAL IN THE AVERAGED MIXED LAYER WINDS...WITH 60 TO 65 KT AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER. GIVES POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH BASED ON THIS.[/quo I think it does not include higher ratios 3 to 6 would be better call for NYC to Monmouth Rossi. Winds kill snow growth. You are probably looking at 12 to 1 ratios The guidance suggest you are at .3. If you get 4 inches of snow with 40 mph winds you probably will not be able to tell the difference between 4 or 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll say it again, never bank on higher then 12:1 ratio. This type of storm if it pans out.. 2-10" You may see spots with little snow but up to 8-10 maybe from blowing and drifts. It actually makes a small storm decent even with little QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 One of the strongest winter negative 500 mb anomalies in quite some time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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