wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What did nam say for long island before that blizzard? Strangely curious to see if it verified anywhere in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS not budging. Either it has the right idea or it will burn It it is. It's slowing catching on to the other models. I disagree..this is a 2-4 event over by midnight Sunday morning...still going to be nice with cold temps to follow How can you make a forecast when the gfs has been shifting south? H5 looks better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ill take real money or fake money bets that GFS will cave soon It's starting to slowly cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A MUCH better precipitation field for NE and LI has snow linger much longer than 18Z, I still think 3-6 is attainable for our area but with those winds and temperatures I'll take 2-3 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's starting to slowly cave.i really think so. This has 3-6 written if not more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I disagree..this is a 2-4 event over by midnight Sunday morning...still going to be nice with cold temps to follow the only model showing me getting only 2-4 is the gfs...which by the way is the biggest joke model around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 i really think so. This has 3-6 written if not more! Agree. GFS still shows several inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 i really think so. This has 3-6 written if not more! Where do you live? This is not 3-6 for NYC. The track is so wonky, and these tiny changes aren't going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2M winds look very impressive for the coast on the GFS, that low really goes to town just east of CC, I can see us gusting close to 55-60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where do you live? This is not 3-6 for NYC. The track is so wonky, and these tiny changes aren't going to get it done. You do know that the GFS is the only model showing this solution. Every other model is south of NYC with the low. Given the RGEM, I bet the GGEM shows a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Where do you live? This is not 3-6 for NYC. The track is so wonky, and these tiny changes aren't going to get it done.3-6 for nyc is the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You do know that the GFS is the only model showing this solution. Every other model is south of NYC with the low. Given the RGEM, I bet the GGEM shows a monster. I agree it shows a monster, not sure if it's the actual solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The .25 line shifted about 30 miles west and had the looking at how CT fares you can tell how a slight shift SW can make a difference. This isn't all about the INV. Trough anymore and I don't see why 3-6 is such a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eastern LI is now .50+ on every model, I think they are a lock for a 5-10 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS is very close to a better outcome. Notice how the snow tries to wrap back towards NYC as the closed 500 low goes just underneath. I'd think that continues to improve if the closed 500 low takes a track though southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks better out this way, getting closer 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lee Goldberg has just upped his totals on ABC News from 1 to 3 to 3-6 for New York City and 6 to 12 for eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2/13 0z QPF Amounts for Select Locations: ABE: 0.27" ALB: 0.41" BDR: 0.47" BGR: 0.87" BLM: 0.15" BOS: 0.96" DXR: 0.45" EWR: 0.18" FOK: 0.45" GON: 0.58" HPN: 0.30" HVN: 0.54" ISP: 0.37" JFK: 0.21" LGA: 0.20" MMU: 0.22" NYC: 0.18" ORH: 0.88" POU: 0.37" PVD: 0.69" PWM: 1.17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, NE forum is rocking over the GFS. What a great solution for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GGEM is a tad less impressive than 12z but still a nice hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GGEM is drier than 12z about .4 for NYC...definitely backed off from its robust run of earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, NE forum is rocking over the GFS. What a great solution for them. It's definitely a pattern for them. Redevelopers and the overrunning storms we've been having are their wheelhouse. This winter's been much more of a Nina-type winter than Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, NE forum is rocking over the GFS. What a great solution for them. Great solution for weather enthusiasts. In the real world, given what's transpired in Boston, I'd say it's not so great overall. Looks like some wind advisories or warnings may be flying in parts of the region on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, NE forum is rocking over the GFS. What a great solution for them. Nearly every model run for the last 4 or so storms has consistently shown a great solution for them (SNE). No waivering, no borderline scenarios, no "please move further south/north/whatever, just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC out to 72, looks very similar to 12z at H5 at 60 hrs maybe a bit south. Sfc about the same but QPF isn't as generous across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And now the GGEM is drier. Weenies are about to jump soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep ggem cut back big time. Still has the vort going south just everything is shunted east...2-4 type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC out to 72, looks very similar to 12z at H5 at 60 hrs maybe a bit south. Sfc about the same but QPF isn't as generous across the area. H5 still looks great. Precip is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yep ggem cut back big time. Still has the vort going south just everything is shunted east...2-4 type dealLol GFS may be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And now the GGEM is drier. Weenies are about to jump soon. No reason to. These troughs are really tricky. GGEM still shows several inches for the area. H5 still looks great so not a bad run at all despite the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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