SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 One storm at a time Getting both in such a short time frame would be very difficult it's either going to be Thursday's storm or this storm if we even get a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 One storm at a time I have the ability to look at more then one in a single model session Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Getting both in such a short time frame would be very difficult it's either going to be Thursday's storm or this storm if we even get a storm at all.Yes, getting both is very hard to do. Teleconnections for this storm are not nearly as promising as the Thursday potential. PNA remains positive, but to the tune of around +1.5sd. The AO is forecast to spike to around +1.5-2sd. The NAO is also forecast spike to a similar level. Yes the EPO goes pretty negative, but teleconnections are not overall that favorable for a big storm in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro seems to be the mega hype model now. If the weenie wants to see a blizzard on the map, all he has to do is look at Euro. I wonder what happened to the Euro, it used to be great. It has been overhyping things though. I've lost count of the number of times it has shown 1 to 2 feet of snow for NYC this winter. Models don't "hype" - people do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What's the gfs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still no go on the gfs. Real light snow and frigid temps. System does not dig enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Strike 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Strike 2 Wrong. It shows some snow and also, h5 is a nod to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If the Thursday storm is weak, the second system would be stronger and likely to impact the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If the Thursday storm is weak, the second system would be stronger and likely to impact the region. This is Joe Cioffi's thinking. We shall see. This has been said several times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's why we need this to stay closed off like a bowling ball rolling through the Great Lakes to the coast. The ensemble mean is more like the UKMET which opens up east of the GL and the surface low slips too far east before deepening. But the OP and mean are pretty close through 120. 120.gif 144.gif The progressive nature of the pattern with bad NAO and AO means this has to perfectly thread the needle for a significant impact. Initially there's something of a 50-50 feature but it's transient. Everything is being pushed off the coast-the trough is positively tilted over the Great Lakes and only becomes neutrally tilted near the coast. The trough has to be further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS headed towards the Euro trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The progressive nature of the pattern with bad NAO and AO means this has to perfectly thread the needle for a significant impact. Initially there's something of a 50-50 feature but it's transient. Everything is being pushed off the coast-the trough is positively tilted over the Great Lakes and only becomes neutrally tilted near the coast. The trough has to be further west. the amount of snow ive seen over the last 3 years WITHOUT a neg nao tells me that according to you "threading the needle" is pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 H5 looked great on the GFS for the weekend storm. The surface should have been way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 the amount of snow ive seen over the last 3 years WITHOUT a neg nao tells me that according to you "threading the needle" is pretty common.It's not just the NAO here though. As I said a few posts back, teleconnections for this storm are poor. A lack of a negative NAO can be overcome, but when you have an AO also trending towards +1.5-2sd, there's nothing to slow this storm down. Yes, you can have the storm close off perfectly and plaster the area, and that has happened, but it's what jm said, thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's not just the nao here though. As I said a few posts back, teleconnections for this storm are poor. A lack of a negative NAO can be overcome, but when you have an AO also trending towards +1.5-2sd, there's nothing to slow this storm down. Yes, you can have the storm close of perfectly and plaster the area, and that has happened, but it's what jm said, thread the needle. i was reffering to the nao which is BY FAR the most overated teleconnection...this isnt wasington dc ive had two 20+ inch storms in the past two years wth a positive nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 H5 looked great on the GFS for the weekend storm. The surface should have been way better. It runs a piece of vorticity ahead of the main trough so it doesn't consolidate until the storm is well east. I was a little surprised to see a 498dm low just SE of NYC with the MSLP being 750 miles east of Cape Cod, but the trough does have neutral tilt and that energy is just a hair too late to consolidate. Going to be a close call, though. Definitely a lot of vorticity and baroclinicity to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 the amount of snow ive seen over the last 3 years WITHOUT a neg nao tells me that according to you "threading the needle" is pretty common. Eastern Long Island can be a different story with a redeveloping storm as we just saw, but the overall pattern with no blocking and a positively tilted to neutrally tilted trough isn't ideal for a big storm around NYC, that's for sure. Something has to slow the pattern down, or else yes, the area is on a razor's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 But wow, whether the big storm happens in time or not, holy **** at the cold behind it. Would be an absolutely brutal 48 hours behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 But wow, whether the big storm happens in time or not, holy **** at the cold behind it. Would be an absolutely brutal 48 hours behind that. Would be a brutal 2 weeks if you believe the GFS. The last several runs have been consistently frigid. We'll be ice skating on the Sound if that verifies. February 1934 comes to mind, minus 2/9. Shades of 2/79 also, but without the post freeze torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Would be a brutal 2 weeks if you believe the GFS. The last several runs have been consistently frigid. We'll be ice skating on the Sound if that verifies. February 1934 comes to mind, minus 2/9. Shades of 2/79 also, but without the post freeze torch. This could very well be a wild ride. Latest Euro indicates the storm is on to some extent, though the surface could be better. But the combination of wind, brutal cold, and some snow at the very least, could be historic. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Artic blast is so strong that it will push any system OTS. Yes it's frustrating but it's the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This could very well be a wild ride. Latest Euro indicates the storm is on to some extent, though the surface could be better. But the combination of wind, brutal cold, and some snow at the very least, could be historic. WX/PT Oh here we go with the historic talk. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Oh here we go with the historic talk. Sent from my iPhone If it ends up that cold it would be historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Heck of a winter better late than never make sure your humidifier is working hate those nosebleeds and static electricity and maybe some snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Did the euro/ggem have anything for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 06Z GFS is much closer with this storm but not quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Oh here we go with the historic talk. Sent from my iPhone Hes right. If we do get this storm, it might be històric with very high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hes right. If we do get this storm, it might be històric with very high ratios. You guys throw that term around way to freely Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You guys throw that term around way to freely Sent from my iPhone As modeled, the combination of cold and snow would be. It's not a prediction or a forecast, it's analyzing the model depiction. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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