forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Was it not GFS against the world during the blizzard, and they came out on top?it was the euro/nam vs the world. i'm cautiously optimistic about the ggem being so consistent combined with the gfs coming south since yesterday's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow gfs cut back amounts. Upton is actually going with the GFS on this one. They didn't even mention the ggem in their latest discussion and they even said the euro is a southern outlier. They weighed gfs, srefs and the nam in their 4:15 discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is so close to something much bigger for the NYC area. Overall sounds like good trends so far. Hopefully they continue tonight as the pieces become sampled better and today's storm locks into place. It'd be nice to get in on the action some others - not to be named - are having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow gfs cut back amounts. Upton is actually going with the GFS on this one. They didn't even mention the ggem in their latest discussion and they even said the euro is a southern outlier. They weighed gfs, srefs and the nam I their 4:15 discussionYou do this every run, the amounts look about the same (although it's just .1-.25 to begin with) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS has been rock solid on a northern solution and always less than 2" or so in the area, it is just not budging. NAM is in the same camp, although a little better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You do this every run, the amounts look about the same (although it's just .1-.25 to begin with)A red tagger just said it cut back amounts too, look a few posts back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS has been rock solid on a northern solution and always less than 2" or so in the area, it is just not budging. NAM is in the same camp, although a little better..The ukmet is in the same camp too along with the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A red tagger just said it cut back amounts too, look a few posts back 12z 18z It's very similar. "Model noise" as they say. Was not a big hit and is still not a big hit. No better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wouldn't be so concerned about the precip amounts. The evolution is what matters and the Gfs is trending towards something better. This is a very potent system one of the most dynamic this season. Even though I lean towards 1-3/2-4" it wouldn't be shocking to see something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Those LE's were not accurate. They may be straight from ASOS. I had 1.64" here and considerably less snow depth than ISP I had about 7 or 8 inches of snow and half inch ice no plain rain on that clipped r you guys were referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we still see this GFS, NAM, UKMET, SREFS vs. GGEM RGEM EURO at 0z, then it will become "eenie meenie miny moe" as to which one to go with for a forecast. I would not want to be Upton or Mt. Holly in that situation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Shocked a little,Upton hasn't issued watches for some yet..probably in morning if it warrants Oh yeah,my God is like a blizzard out right now.... Snowing so heavily and everything's now whiter .....Shocked to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Has anyone looked at the updated maps snow wise? They don't match,but I imagine the snow map lasts till this snow ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Shocked a little,Upton hasn't issued watches for some yet..probably in morning if it warrants Oh yeah,my God is like a blizzard out right now.... Snowing so heavily and everything's now whiter .....Shocked to say the least What watch exactly? We are not getting a Blizzard, and it is still too unpredictable to place a storm warning here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I had about 7 or 8 inches of snow and half inch ice no plain rain on that clipped r you guys were referring to I was referring to the Blizzard. I had 8" of snow and a wee bit of rain / freezing rain from the storm a week later, but the temperature did not get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What watch exactly? We are not getting a Blizzard, and it is still too unpredictable to place a storm warning here either. winter storm watch is what I'm referring to, ct/Rhode island has one, Suffolk county likely could benefit a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we still see this GFS, NAM, UKMET, SREFS vs. GGEM RGEM EURO at 0z, then it will become "eenie meenie miny moe" as to which one to go with for a forecast. I would not want to be Upton or Mt. Holly in that situation.... I would consider the NAM in the RGEM/Euro group, its definitely south of the GFS. The SREFs have been north on almost every event this year beyond 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Shocked a little,Upton hasn't issued watches for some yet..probably in morning if it warrants Oh yeah,my God is like a blizzard out right now.... Snowing so heavily and everything's now whiter .....Shocked to say the least Upton is favoring the GFS, UKMET, NAM, SREF camp right now that's why. The forecast for Rockland at least is less than half an inch of snow during the day saturday and 1-3 Saturday evening and night, ending around midnight. That doesn't even warrant an advisory for that area, they are calling for the same for NYC. Haven't looked at Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 winter storm watch is what I'm referring to, ct/Rhode island has one, Suffolk county likely could benefit a watch They have to be concerned of 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours to issue a watch. If they are going GFS, there isn't a concern for that, so no watch will be issued. Watches can get issued 24-48 hours in advance and it's 48 now, so there's still plenty of time if the 0z suite comes in snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Upton is favoring the GFS, UKMET, NAM, SREF camp right now that's why. The forecast for Rockland at least is less than half an inch of snow during the day saturday and 1-3 Saturday evening and night, ending around midnight. That doesn't even warrant an advisory for that area, they are calling for the same for NYC. Haven't looked at Long Island Upton has the same forcast for western Long Island!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Click point, Upton has me greeting maybe 6 inches and I'm on east end... .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion -- ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ENDS BY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 1/3 AND 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID QPF IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS E. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 They have to be concerned of 6" in 12 hours or 8" in 24 hours to issue a watch. If they are going GFS, there isn't a concern for that, so no watch will be issued. Watches can get issued 24-48 hours in advance and it's 48 now, so there's still plenty of time if the 0z suite comes in snowier. I know of no one forecasting more than at most 2-4 for the nyc area right now, a lot of 1-3 on the local forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Click point, Upton has me greeting maybe 6 inches and I'm on east end... .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion -- ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ENDS BY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 1/3 AND 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID QPF IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS E. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED. -- End Changed Discussion -- You are now under a Watch Watch for the possibility of a Watch being issued. Should a Watch be issued, the Watch Watch would be converted to a Watch Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any word on GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Any word on GFS ensemblesMatches the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Matches the OP Tic SW 12z GEFS 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You are now under a Watch Watch for the possibility of a Watch being issued. Should a Watch be issued, the Watch Watch would be converted to a Watch Warning. Brilliant sir jest brilliant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tic SW 12z GEFS 12zgfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_11.png 18z GEFS 18zgfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_10.png That's a good trend on the mean, but it's close to the 18z GFS OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tic SW 12z GEFS 12zgfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_11.png 18z GEFS 18zgfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_10.png Looks more consolidated. You are now under a Watch Watch for the possibility of a Watch being issued. Should a Watch be issued, the Watch Watch would be converted to a Watch Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gefs south of op and srefs ae heading towards canadian/euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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