tdp146 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nope, PB GFI is correct here. And that redbanknj guy is a troll So two posters say PB is correct and two say Yanks is correct. I sitll dont know what to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nope, PB GFI is correct here. And that redbanknj guy is a troll Do you know how to read a 500mb map? Your 500mb low here is well into Upstate NY and then ends up near Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will post this 1 last time . Yes the mean is N of KNYC , but the spread is to the south which means that the model is likely to correct there . So watch and see how this probably corrects south and fall in line with the Euro and GGEM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will post this 1 last time . Yes the mean is N of KNYC , but the spread is to the south which means that the model is likely to correct there . So watch and see how this probably corrects south and fall in line with the Euro and GGEM . When I hear mean I think of average, which would mean the consensus is north over the ensembles. But yet your saying the spread is south...are different members weighted differently, otherwise that doesn't make sense (this is the computer scientist in me talking), I'm still a WX newb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Do you know how to read a 500mb map? Your 500mb low here is well into Upstate NY and then ends up near Boston that's not the argument here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 When I hear mean I think of average, which would mean the consensus is north over the ensembles. But yet your saying the spread is south...are different members weighted differently, otherwise that doesn't make sense (this is the computer scientist in me talking), I'm still a WX newbYes the mean is the average per say, however, members really far off can skew it. For example if you wanted the mean of 1,2,3,4, 100; the 100 would significantly skew the mean, yet the spread would be favoring to the 1,2,3,4.Edit : So what he is saying is that the majority of the ensembles are towards the south, but the mean is being skewed by a couple of Northern members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes the mean is the average per say, however, members really far off can skew it. For example if you wanted the mean is 1,2,3,4, 100; the 100 would significantly skew the mean, yet the spread would be favoring to the 1,2,3,4. Edit : So what he is saying is that the majority of the ensembles are towards the south, but the mean is being skewed by a couple of Northern members. Understood, then would it be safe to say that the northern models are either weighted more heavily, or that they are radically north....is there anyway to view the individual members that make up the ensembles, I think it would be interesting from a math / comp sci standpoint to see how they derive a final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's not the argument here For the good of the board I am just going to let this one go. Unless the 500mb low tracks southwest of NYC, and preferably southwest of Philly it's going to be very difficult to inject enough moisture into the system until it's too far gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes the mean is the average per say, however, members really far off can skew it. For example if you wanted the mean of 1,2,3,4, 100; the 100 would significantly skew the mean, yet the spread would be favoring to the 1,2,3,4. Edit : So what he is saying is that the majority of the ensembles are towards the south, but the mean is being skewed by a couple of Northern members. so they are both right. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Understood, then would it be safe to say that the northern models are either weighted more heavily, or that they are radically north....is there anyway to view the individual members that make up the ensembles, I think it would be interesting from a math / comp sci standpoint to see how they derive a final solution http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any news on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 When I hear mean I think of average, which would mean the consensus is north over the ensembles. But yet your saying the spread is south...are different members weighted differently, otherwise that doesn't make sense (this is the computer scientist in me talking), I'm still a WX newbthe "spread" is more like the median, in that more members have it south of that position but there are likely some outliers skewing the mean north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 well add the canadian model to the party folks.n.y.c and l.i up to boston gets smacked pretty good with the norlun and the ccb in the same system.!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any news on the NAM H5 closed low travels thru PA and then just south of LI. Positive trend for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 500 millibar lows typically follow the greatest positive vorticity advection. On the 18 z NAM at hour 60 you clearly see the greatest vorticity advection south of NYC. I would have to believe that the 500 millibar low based on what is shown will end up south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 500 millibar lows typically follow the greatest positive vorticity advection. On the 18 z NAM at hour 60 you clearly see the greatest vorticity advection south of NYC. I would have to believe that the 500 millibar low based on what is shown will end up south of NYC. and so long as that 500 MB is south of us we are looking good for at least a burst of heavy snow correct? Most importantly there seem to be some positive trends with slight shifts SW to the SLP on all major models ( at the very least nothing has shifted North) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like about 0.2" LE for most, maybe 3" or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM looks like a light snowfall for many of us. a pretty nice hit for eastern LI, better for Boston than last run and best for downeast Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 and so long as that 500 MB is south of us we are looking good for at least a burst of heavy snow correct? Most importantly there seem to be some positive trends with slight shifts SW to the SLP on all major models ( at the very least nothing has shifted North) There are some positive trends today, and yes if the 500 mb low is south then the surface low will be slightly further southwest allowing the surface low to get better organized to give us a shot of some mod/heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM looks like a light snowfall for many of us. a pretty nice hit for eastern LI, better for Boston than last run and best for downeast Maineshocker!! i like a general 1-3". more as you head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z NAM continues with a trend toward sharper/steeper trough. QPF responded with an upward tick. Also, winds on Sunday are going to be HWW worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 shocker!! i like a general 1-3". more as you head east. Hah yeah I feel like we've been down this road before, eh? I'm thinking 2-4" for most of us, 4-8" eastern LI, 10-15" Boston area and 24"+ for parts of coastal Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Since he had Long Island raining during the clipper ( there was 1 to 2 ) and the one that followed early Feb where he declared Long Island was rain for 85 % of the storm I had 8 for KNYC and 6 to 9 fell , its up to you who you believe .I don't care who's right on this, but you've had your busts as well. You were trying to talk everyone off the ledge by the "blizzard" because we had the Euro And were sure it would be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hah yeah I feel like we've been down this road before, eh? I'm thinking 2-4" for most of us, 4-8" eastern LI, 10-15" Boston area and 24"+ for parts of coastal MaineThat's reasonable but it'll be interesting if a subltle southward trend at 500mb will translate to something slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's reasonable but it'll be interesting if a subltle southward trend at 500mb will translate to something slightly better.It's possible, but at this point no model is putting out snowfall amounts that are wildly different and higher than that, so no reason to go higher. I think we've walked ourself right into the wall of disappointment by banking on things changing and the hope that if "this" does "that", then it'd be more snow, when in reality if "that" does "this", it would lead to even less snow than the lower end of many forecasts.....that is the reason why many situations (such as the one occurring right now) turns from a modeled light snowfall into the thinking that it could be much more (if things change for the better), but ultimately can end up changing for the worst and be less than even the light snowfall originally modeled. Funny how many of the complaints are in regards to the models being wrong and busting, and while clearly they are wrong many times, especially the further out in time you go, if we were to take a combination of the models especially when they form a consensus, they would not be really that bad when it comes to what we see in terms of snowfall accumulations. It is when we step in and decide "wait, this model is doing this wrong.....so this should mean much more snow with high ratios, etc etc.....so the 2-4 it shows is wrong and should be 4-8" that we end up ultimately disappointed (and blame the models anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's possible, but at this point no model is putting out snowfall amounts that are wildly different and higher than that, so no reason to go higher. I think we've walked ourself right into the wall of disappointment by banking on things changing and the hope that if "this" does "that", then it'd be more snow, when in reality if "that" does "this", it would lead to even less snow than the lower end of many forecasts.....that is the reason why many situations (such as the one occurring right now) turns from a modeled light snowfall into the thinking that it could be much more (if things change for the better), but ultimately can end up changing for the worst and be less than even the light snowfall originally modeled Euro EPS mean is in the 2-3" NNJ into metro NYC/WLI (at 10:1 ratio, you pick your own) 2 of the 51 member are near or just over 6" for CPK and there are about 13 with 1-2". Still think a 1-3" or 2-4" fcst is way to go right now. Mean SLP does have suggestion of weak norlun across L.I. into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blizz watch in ME...what a time up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I didn't see a huge change on the nam not that you really even trust that model, however I think we are getting close to consensus. Should be consensus or close to it tonight at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hah yeah I feel like we've been down this road before, eh? I'm thinking 2-4" for most of us, 4-8" eastern LI, 10-15" Boston area and 24"+ for parts of coastal Mainesadly we have been down this road all winter. boston and maine just so happened to be having one for the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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