Blizzardo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but don't strong winds really hurt ratios too? Yes, kills the ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Our January storms last year had pretty good snow growth ratios. We also had a clipper type system I think back in 2004 or 2005 in January that dumped like 6-10 on our area with really high ratios. With this kind of setup it's doable and really our need in order to get a plowable snowfall more so than what Maine and E. Mass has to work with. in jan 2004 we had a clipper that gave 4-8" with around .25" LE. we had zero wind though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Usually when its high ratio, its a very light QPF clipper that swings through and dumps a couple inches of powder. You'll never see a high ratio in a Miller A/B or hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rarely ever see a snow ratio higher then 12:1 around here. Don't ever count on it being higher. from a depth perspective, high ratio snow is overrated anyway. 6 inches rapidly settles to 3 inches before you can even pee in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 from a depth perspective, high ratio snow is overrated anyway. 6 inches rapidly settles to 3 inches before you can even pee in it. Lol. Ag3 disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 in jan 2004 we had a clipper that gave 4-8" with around .25" LE. we had zero wind though Yes that's the one. Good point on the wind. I picked up around 8 or 9 inches on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Our January storms last year had pretty good snow growth ratios. We also had a clipper type system I think back in 2004 or 2005 in January that dumped like 6-10 on our area with really high ratios. With this kind of setup it's doable and really our need in order to get a plowable snowfall more so than what Maine and E. Mass has to work with. That was right on the Arctic front. The front end of PD2 was also great. NYC 21 0.46 11.0 22 0.02 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You do realize that this year's blizzard bust - which verified as a blizzard in NE and I believe LI - dumped 26 inches on 1.1 LE in Boston. Islip had an even greater ratio. So the suggestion that you can't get high ratio snows during high wind events is not true (though the winds aloft may limit ratios somewhat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SREFS are beautiful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SREFS are beautiful . UMMM elaborate?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Best look at 500 . Looks like the GEM . You want this to come off to your south . This would get it done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SREFS are beautiful . Huh, the mean is under 0.25" for all areas except the East half of LI and portions of Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SREFS are beautiful . Disagree the mean brings the h5 vort north of nyc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Best look at 500 . Looks like the GEM . You want this to come off to your south . This would get it done . That's not where the 500mb low is. It doesn't even close off until near Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Huh, the mean is under 0.25" for all areas except the East half of LI and portions of Upstate NY. At 500 . Not looking at the qpf . Could be some dry members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Remember, if it's very windy, that will offset, to some extent, the higher ratios one would expect from the good nucleation and snow crystal growth in the snow growth region aloft, as the wind promotes particle-particle collisions and breakage, which leads to lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At 500 . Not looking at the qpf . Could be some dry members No, the 500mb low tracks over Upstate NY and then Central New England. I try to give you the benefit of the doubt but this is just awful analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The lean west here is as good as the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The lean west here is as good as the GEM The reason is because you have duel low pressure systems on a lot of the modeling. One that is East and evenutally takes over and another closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, the 500mb low tracks over Upstate NY and then Central New England. I try to give you the benefit of the doubt but this is just awful analysis. Look at the lean . There are so many stronger members south of the mean . Look at the spread . I don`t know if I have seen you be right over the last 2 weeks .What an awful interpretation of the look of that spread that I have ever seen here . With that spread what does the correction look like ? What are the stronger members hinting at ? I expect that from the accuweather kids , but you miss that look ? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Look at the lean . There are so many stronger members south of the mean . Look at the spread . I don`t know if I have seen you be right over the last 2 weeks .What an awful interpretation of the look of that spread that I have ever seen here . With that spread what does the correction look like ? What are the stronger members hinting at ? I expect that from the accuweather kids , but you miss that look ? wow one thing is clear you each think the other has awful analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, the 500mb low tracks over Upstate NY and then Central New England. I try to give you the benefit of the doubt but this is just awful analysis.I was going to say, the 500mb low track looks way north on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes, strong winds aloft ruin dendrite growth. Coastal Maine won't see the same ratios as we will down here. Even if there good growth, the winds help crush them into little bits of ice at the surface. Think of those tumblers used to polish rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 one thing is clear you each think the other has awful analysis. Since he had Long Island raining during the clipper ( there was 1 to 2 ) and the one that followed early Feb where he declared Long Island was rain for 85 % of the storm I had 8 for KNYC and 6 to 9 fell , its up to you who you believe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Since he had Long Island raining during the clipper ( there was 1 to 2 ) and the one that followed early Feb where he declared Long Island was rain for 85 % of the storm I had 8 for KNYC and 6 to 9 fell , its up to you who you believe . For the last time, the lean is because of a secondary low pressure system that develops off the coast while the main system moves into New England. Enough of this crap already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You do realize that this year's blizzard bust - which verified as a blizzard in NE and I believe LI - dumped 26 inches on 1.1 LE in Boston. Islip had an even greater ratio. So the suggestion that you can't get high ratio snows during high wind events is not true (though the winds aloft may limit ratios somewhat). Those LE's were not accurate. They may be straight from ASOS. I had 1.64" here and considerably less snow depth than ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Look at the lean . There are so many stronger members south of the mean . Look at the spread . I don`t know if I have seen you be right over the last 2 weeks .What an awful interpretation of the look of that spread that I have ever seen here . With that spread what does the correction look like ? What are the stronger members hinting at ? I expect that from the accuweather kids , but you miss that look ? wow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLZubB22edw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the ensembles look good per the NE forum...idk how that translate to us...can someone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, the 500mb low tracks over Upstate NY and then Central New England. I try to give you the benefit of the doubt but this is just awful analysis. Nope, PB GFI is correct here. And that redbanknj guy is a troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM's running now-back to the program folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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