MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no model shows 1-2 inches! They all show 2-4 or higher! Ratios will be in play so I'd say 3-6 is a very good possibility! Did you read my post? I said IF euro is off on INV then 1-2". With 100% INV verification then yes 2-4 or 5. I'm just not buying into that attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no model shows 1-2 inches! They all show 2-4 or higher! Ratios will be in play so I'd say 3-6 is a very good possibility! Again we're relying on an IVT but please keep weenieing out and telling a met that they are wrong without any meteorological reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Does anyone have the exact QPF for EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Again we're relying on an IVT but please keep weenieing out and telling a met that they are wrong without any meteorological reasoning.Exactly. Do people realize how crazy rare it is to have a norlun trough setup right over our area? If that doesn't happen, this could easily only be an inch and just an arctic cold front passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Does anyone have the exact QPF for EWR?.26" per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm still hoping the exiting storm today can get help get the coastal tucked in closer to the coast. That's probably unlikely, but that's the biggest chance we have at a big snowstorm here. And why does everyone feel the need to say how well Boston does in every run? I'm truly sick of hearing about that city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Those are some strong winds on the Euro for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 no model shows 1-2 inches! They all show 2-4 or higher! Ratios will be in play so I'd say 3-6 is a very good possibility! Good ratios always enhance snowfall, it depends on how much colder the temperatures are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Holy moly stop overdoing ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Blend of all the guidance is about 2-4" for the metro, except LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Holy moly stop overdoing ratios Ratio`s are closer to 15 to 1 His .4 should be 5 to 6 , He is not far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Holy moly stop overdoing ratios Mount holly THEN ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW BURST, AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS BRING PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS TO 45-55 AND INDICATE SLANTWISE (AT SEVERAL LEVELS) CONVECTION. THERE IS PREDICTED OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION, MORE SO NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NORLUN TROF FORMATION WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE SNOW. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND THE TRIED BUT TRUE EXPRESSION THAT THERE IS ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER A CLOSED LOW. WE WERE BULLISH BEYOND THE MODEL PREDICTED QPF WITH THE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That is the mt holly discussion from the 0z models this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mt holly is right, if the upper low is south of NY there is a potential of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mt holly is right, if the upper low is south of NY there is a potential of heavy snow. Well NAM/GFS/UKIE track it over NYC GGEM Well south EURO just to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Does anyone have the exact QPF for EWR? 0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ratios conservatively would be at least 12-1, more likely about 14-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is .27 and 3.9" for Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is .27 and 3.9" for Islip And a Low Temp of -7 by 12Z monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mt holly is right, if the upper low is south of NY there is a potential of heavy snow. big if there...time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rarely ever see a snow ratio higher then 12:1 around here. Don't ever count on it being higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rarely ever see a snow ratio higher then 12:1 around here. Don't ever count on it being higher. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rarely ever see a snow ratio higher then 12:1 around here. Don't ever count on it being higher. We are also talking about potentially historically cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rarely ever see a snow ratio higher then 12:1 around here. Don't ever count on it being higher. I do have to agree. Especially if one is thinking that with 0.20" of moisture, ratios could bring it to 4-5".....and then we end up with 0.15" and lower/normal ratios.....that 4-5" could very easily be only 2" or so. Never bank on ratios being high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You can get higher ratios though yes rare..and it's not just Boston's winter, long island,Boston etc. Everyone's having a great winter overall NYC and long island. Just imagine a few winters ago when it was warm and no snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 TruthCorrect me if I'm wrong but don't strong winds really hurt ratios too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS has 1.9" of snow at LGA on 0.12" LE. That's an average ratio of 15.84:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but don't strong winds really hurt ratios too? Yes, strong winds aloft ruin dendrite growth. Coastal Maine won't see the same ratios as we will down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but don't strong winds really hurt ratios too? Hurts snowflake growth and better dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Our January storms last year had pretty good snow growth ratios. We also had a clipper type system I think back in 2004 or 2005 in January that dumped like 6-10 on our area with really high ratios. With this kind of setup it's doable and really our need in order to get a plowable snowfall more so than what Maine and E. Mass has to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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