SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agreed... .50+ much farther SW... would only take another 30-50 miles and then would be over NYC and NNJ Will have much better sampling by tomorrow's afternoon run so that'll likely be the deal breaker with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The bottom line is if the 500mb low goes underneath you, the odds for heavy snow go up significantly. If it goes north of you or over you, at most it will be snow showers. It's very important this dig as far as it can. I agree this means everything in this setup. The last storm (not the current clipper) was a pretty huge bust with uptons 90% lowest snow accumulations verifying 12 hours out. If the 500 goes north something similar (though we still get more then that mess) could happen. I really have to go with the trend right now as it's been rock solid. Boston slammed by what in any given winter would be the block buster storm, DCA nada and NYC somewhere in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we get a nurlun in the NYC metro area, NAM should start to sniff it out soon. I like the idea of 1 to max 4 inches in the area. Best Nam, hrrr, rgem, and rap would be the ones to pinpoint the location of any norlun trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 H5 really digging this run on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Vort goes just under central nj. Still a compromise between ggem and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's the qpf now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .25+ this run for all....compromise between ggem and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .25+ this run for all....compromise between ggem and gfs Isnt that the same if not more than 0z? EURO only spit out 3"-4" last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston .75+ Central LI .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .25+ this run for all....compromise between ggem and gfs OK even that with ratios is still 4-8 inches... also EURO does have the tendency to downplay QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IVT on the Euro. If that doesn't work out then we are left with snow showers with maybe a period of accumulating snow for eastern LI IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .25+ this run for all....compromise between ggem and gfs2-4"? And wow did the qpf dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Isnt that the same if not more than 0z? EURO only spit out 3"-4" last night Yes exactly the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 10-1 ratio sv maps 2-4 nyc-west Central long island 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 2-4"? And wow did the qpf dry up need to factor in ratios... so it would be more than 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 east of NYC does better per the Euro, closer to .5 All models have this Inverted trough pointed right at NYC or something close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro says 2-4 inches and onwards to next storm for NYC . SNE- LI special , makes sense with IVT in play. but yet agin we miss out on the main show up north. this is a Boston Winter. May they enjoy, our turn will come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's a good run from EWR and points East. West of there is a bit dicey. Have to hope that high ratios make up for less moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SV maps still show 2-4" for the entire area except on LI where the amounts gradually go up. 6-8" for the far East end this run. I think you will see Watches hoisted for at least Suffolk County this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 SV maps still show 2-4" for the entire area except on LI where the amounts gradually go up. 6-8" for the far East end this run. I think you will see Watches hoisted for at least Suffolk County this afternoon. Yes but like I said a few posts up... .25-.50" LE can be 4-8 inches depending on where you are with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run isn't much drier at all for the NYC area, Down east Maine is like 2 feet though with insane winds. Even for us the winds will be very impressing with such a huge pressure gradient between the storm and HP to our west, low is the mid 960's on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The colder locations west of nyc will get better ratios even though a bit less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IVT on the Euro. If that doesn't work out then we are left with snow showers with maybe a period of accumulating snow for eastern LI IMO. Agree, no IVT and euro is high on LE. Even w/o INV I think 1-2" windblown stuff would be a good possibility. That INV has time to wiggle north or south, more likely north but finer details on that not likely until 00Z run tomorrow. Overall euro very consistent with 00Z run. GGEM is outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's a good run from EWR and points East. West of there is a bit dicey. Have to hope that high ratios make up for less moisture.Maybe a general 1-4 inches for the area, minus Long Island? I think the nw of the city may have the least and it goes up gradually from the city east imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run is .37" for LGA (NYC). That's wetter then last night's run and 4"-7" with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The colder locations west of nyc will get better ratios even though a bit less qpfthats a myth man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The .25 line is on a NW to SE line from about Binghamton to Toms River, the .50 line pretty much disencts LI. All in all, growing confidence for a 3-6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agree, no IVT and euro is high on LE. Even w/o INV I think 1-2" windblown stuff would be a good possibility. That INV has time to wiggle north or south, more likely north but finer details on that not likely until 00Z run tomorrow. Overall euro very consistent with 00Z run. GGEM is outlier at this point. no model shows 1-2 inches! They all show 2-4 or higher! Ratios will be in play so I'd say 3-6 is a very good possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This run is .37" for LGA (NYC). That's wetter then last night's run and 4"-7" with ratios. Never bank on ratios until game time in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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