PB GFI Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hour 72 GEM BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Light snow at 06z Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anybody got a handy link to the current models so I can view them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy snow at hr 69 on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hr 72 continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big snowstorm on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .5+ for northeast nj and nyc so far...all of long island also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That model shoot be taken out the woodshed and shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ggem's solution looks slightly south of its 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .5 ends up in western nj. .75+ for northeast nj and Nyc. Long island 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That model shoot be taken out the woodshed and shot...I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Ukmet and Euro show nothing like this. The canadian has been in a world of its own several times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 500mb low tracks to almost Baltimore, on the 00z run it was over SE PA. It was indeed a southwest shift. Great sign. You didn't want to see it continue to tick Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't even remember the last time the GGEM had a correct verification so this run means nada to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Honestly I can't even remember the last time the GGEM had a correct verification so this run means nada to me It nailed Feb 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .5 ends up in western nj. .75+ for northeast nj and Nyc. Long island 12+ which would translate with ratios to 12-15 inches in NYC metro. if that happens Ill happily call this God forsaken model the King from now on. Definition of an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't even remember the last time the GGEM had a correct verification so this run means nada to me it was in the east camp with the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it was in the east camp with the blizzard It has done okay this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Look at how the GGEM generates all of that LE. It is a classic, strong norlun signature. Not saying it won't or can't happen but I would not hang my hat on that loose nail 66-72 hours out. Also its surface depiction looks suspect with two sfc features. I agree with prior poster, don't think UKMET or especially euro will show LE like GGEM is showing. For metro NYC this is a 1-3 or maybe 2-4" event unless there is a "norlun surprise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It has done okay this winter. the ggem is a good model these days. this isn't 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Except the Euro has shown this with the GGEM and the ukmet not to far behind the past few runs.The euro has not been showing 12-18 inches of snow neither has the ukmet, not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You can really tell the negativos vs the optimists. The GEM has been consistent with its southern solutions as well, but no mention of that. Only the GFS is given credit for consistency. In addition, the GFS ticked south at 0z and 12z - not by much, but there is some movement. (And the GFS consistently stunk the past few storms.) I don't profess to know what will occur, but when looking at one side of the coin, you should probably look at the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Look at how the GGEM generates all of that LE. It is a classic, strong norlun signature. Not saying it won't or can't happen but I would not hang my hat on that loose nail 66-72 hours out. Also its surface depiction looks suspect with two sfc features. I agree with prior poster, don't think UKMET or especially euro will show LE like GGEM is showing. For metro NYC this is a 1-3 or maybe 2-4" event unless there is a "norlun surprise". youll be wrong this won't be a 1-3 inches. This is a much more amplified system and redeveloping to our south which will mean the heaviest precip will pass right through our region. This is easily a 3-6 inch snow event. Fyi ggem has done well the last two years yes it's erratic sometimes but all models have shown to be erratic at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The euro has not been showing 12-18 inches of snow neither has the ukmet, not even close this is the first ggem run to show high amounts. wait for the rest of the models to come in before making proclamations. btw, there have been a few impressive euro runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The UKIE looks like the GFS, looks like 1-2" with 4 plus once over eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't even remember the last time the GGEM had a correct verification so this run means nada to me LOL. It was arguably even more locked in than any other model to the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the ggem is a good model these days. this isn't 2005 http://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the 12z gfs looked a good deal better than the 06z run at least. It looked really good for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I thought the 12z gfs looked a good deal better than the 06z run at least. It looked really good for SNE. Agreed... .50+ much farther SW... would only take another 30-50 miles and then would be over NYC and NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The bottom line is if the 500mb low goes underneath you, the odds for heavy snow go up significantly. If it goes north of you or over you, at most it will be snow showers. It's very important this dig as far as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we get a nurlun in the NYC metro area, NAM should start to sniff it out soon. I like the idea of 1 to max 4 inches in the area. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.