IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 2:59 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Every model save the GGEM has us in 1"-4" now, my map from early yesterday still looks spot on, very high confidence with the forecast. The SV maps for the Euro had the entire area in the 2-4" range and they are highly conservative. 850mb temps are going to be at least -12 to -16C by Saturday night. Ratios are going to be very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the coastal areas see the big winners this winter thus far. Long island, Rhode island, and north even parts of Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like 1-3 type deal now....next week will probably end up being our 6+ event. Gfs has been deadly with the northern stream this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:07 PM, Allsnow said: Looks like 1-3 type deal now....next week will probably end up being our 6+ event. Gfs has been deadly with the northern stream this winter. Agreed the main story this weekend will be the strong winds (close to High Wind criteria) and bitterly cold wind chills. There will probably be a strong burst of snow delivering like you said 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 1-3" event, possible 2-4". take it and run, anyone expecting 15"+ every storm better find a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:10 PM, Snowlover11 said: 1-3" event, possible 2-4". take it and run, anyone expecting 15"+ every storm better find a new hobby. I agree! Look forward to a pack refresher....we are running out of time so I will take what I can get. Hopefully next week we get 6 and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 1/9/1996 has been showing up a lot on the analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:13 PM, Allsnow said: I agree! Look forward to a pack refresher....we are running out of time so I will take what I can get. Hopefully next week we get 6 and ice I'll wait for the Euro to cave before declaring victory for the GFS. At two days out we still have plenty of time for things to change. The energy responsible for this is still near the Arctic Circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:13 PM, Allsnow said: I agree! Look forward to a pack refresher....we are running out of time so I will take what I can get. Hopefully next week we get 6 and iceI agree allsnow, let's enjoy the next upcoming 2 weeks, after that we will be into March and the curtain starts to fall on snow chances. I'll be happy with a 1-3 of powder and unmodified arctic cold afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:16 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'll wait for the Euro to cave before declaring victory for the GFS. At two days out we still have plenty of time for things to change. The energy responsible for this is still near the Arctic Circle. Me too but it could be the opposite as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:16 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'll wait for the Euro to cave before declaring victory for the GFS. At two days out we still have plenty of time for things to change. The energy responsible for this is still near the Arctic Circle. So far the NAM and GFS have been caving to the Euro at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:25 PM, SnowGoose69 said: So far the NAM and GFS have been caving to the Euro at 500 The NAM is a joke, we all know this. The jury is still out on the GFS although it has been good with Northern stream systems this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At initilization the energy responsible is just coming into the picture in the far NW territories of Canada. Eskimo country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:16 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'll wait for the Euro to cave before declaring victory for the GFS. At two days out we still have plenty of time for things to change. The energy responsible for this is still near the Arctic Circle. LOL THIS...am i really seeing pretty much evryone give the gfs the win wen he euro and ggem havent caved yet....LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:31 PM, Nygmen said: LOL THIS...am i really seeing pretty much evryone give the gfs the win wen he euro and ggem havent caved yet....LMAOnot yet but the GFS is deadly lately especially the last 2 years with northern stream systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Outside of the blizzard the GFS is actually still behind the Euro I believe in terms of verification inside of 60 hrs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:36 PM, SleetStormNJ said: Outside of the blizzard the GFS is actually still behind the Euro I believe in terms of verification inside of 60 hrs this winter.yeah I mean it's 1 for 3 since the upgrade so it's been right 33% of the time... Let's see what's up... Yanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Euro has had a bad run lately, but so has most of the rest of the guidance. The overall numbers don't lie. Save a horse, ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:14 PM, IsentropicLift said: 1/9/1996 has been showing up a lot on the analogs that's bizarre looking...that's a day or so after the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:47 PM, killabud said: that's bizarre looking...that's a day or so after the blizzard? I think it was that Fri and if I remember correctly that was a deal where we turned to rain after 4 inches or so. in CPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Slight tick SW by the GFS but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:51 PM, IsentropicLift said: Slight tick SW by the GFS but not enough This is at the end of its run or the beginning and your are projecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:53 PM, nyblizz44 said: This is at the end of its run or the beginning and your are projecting?I'm past it now, out to hr 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:53 PM, IsentropicLift said: I'm past it now, out to hr 75 It won't dig the 500mb low enough...it's been extremely consistent. Time is running out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs 1-3...just a arctic front pretty much.... Vort continues to go north of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS can be consistent for 5 runs in a row and still cave. Means nothing. Let's see what the GGEM and Euro have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:56 PM, Neblizzard said: It won't dig the 500mb low enough...it's been extremely consistent. Time is running out on this one.Glorified arctic cold front passage for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice foot for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Given the current models' signatures, even though the overall snowfall may be light, could we see blizzard like conditions due to the high winds? (given that technically a blizzard is sustained winds of over 35 mph for 3 hours and less than .25 miles visibility). Obviously this would not be considered a blizzard by most folks standards, with an expected 1-3"/2"-4" snowfall, based on the GFS, for NYC. But what warnings would be issued in a case like this for NYC? WWA with a high wind warning? Also, what is causing such diversity in the different models to come up with such widely varying predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 ggem continues to dig the vort. Hr 60 south of the mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.