rcad1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 According to the NE forum the Euro looks about the same as 12z. They say any moves were so slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 According to the NE forum the Euro looks about the same as 12z. They say any moves were so slight. The CCB shifted towards New England. Surface low looks the same. Still a solid snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it looks a little drier but the h5 track is still south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .20 - .30 QP over NNJ metro. Most of it comes as a result of upper air feature. Strong norlun signature is not on this run. Very fast and progressive. Overall a disappointing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it looks a little drier but the h5 track is still south of usthe s/w isn't modeled to enter the sounding domain until ~12z friday. as long as the theme of a digging arctic vort max continues i wouldn't be too concerned until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah when I went back into the ne forum I read the ccb was north.. Was very confusing cause one person says it folded to the GFS then the other says it looks the same as 12z!!! .20 - .30 QP over NNJ metro. Most of it comes as a result of upper air feature. Strong norlun signature is not on this run. Very fast and progressive. Overall a disappointing run. Not disappointing at all. Still a solid snowfall for the area. Just as long as the H5 goes underneath the area, we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It is much closer to GFS. Regarding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If you compare the 12z run to the 0z run, the low is slightly more west towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Regarding? less QP than (gasp) end of NAM and GGEM. It is very fast moving and the average .25" QP over the area is generated by 500 feature moving just south FAST and providing goof lift. It is a disappoint run you were looking for a continuation of better trends from 12Z EURO. Norlun is gone on this run and that is where 12Z generated QP from. Forky is right though, S/W will not be in the grid fully until 12Z FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The red taggers over there said definitely less impressive than 12z, no more norlun, much more progressive and fast moving and the heavy qpf shifted north. A couple non red taggers said it looks like a cave to the gfs. I can't get it to load still so I'll take their word for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The red taggers over there said definitely less impressive than 12z, no more norlun, much more progressive and fast moving and the heavy qpf shifted north. A couple non red taggers said it looks like a cave to the gfs. I can't get it to load still so I'll take their word for it I read it. There is still a norlun for our area but the heaviest precip is in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The red taggers over there said definitely less impressive than 12z, no more norlun, much more progressive and fast moving and the heavy qpf shifted north. A couple non red taggers said it looks like a cave to the gfs. I can't get it to load still so I'll take their word for it Trust me, take their word for it. Nothing in your post is a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z ECM is still a decent snowfall and did not change much since 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Trust me, take their word for it. Nothing in your post is a lie. Being objective when you look at h5, it's not a cave to the gfs. Either way it will take a decent shift south for a lot of us to be in the game. The storm should still produce at least little snow for area with bone chilling cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Being objective when you look at h5, it's not a cave to the gfs. Either way it will take a decent shift south for a lot of us to be in the game. The storm should still produce at least little snow for area with bone chilling cold. Yep.....if anyone is looking to be in the heavy jackpot banding and get 12"+, then they've gotta look elsewhere.....this storm was never really modeled to give us a ton of snow. Any ideas that it would be a major snowstorm for us stemmed from thinking the models could make huge shifts to put this in our favor. As there is no reason for that to happen, I'm thinking a 3-6" snowfall is possible, higher amounts eastern LI.....overall an advisory event that will be nice with snow falling into the low teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NWS in Mt. Holly already has a snowfall map up. In their discussion they call for a general 2-5" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ and 1-2" south of that line. More is possible, but it could also just be a 1-2" storm for most. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gfs is locked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 6z gfs moved slightly sw of 0z. Regardless, wait until 0z tonight. I think there will be consensus. This looks like a very fast mover regardless, starts around noon saturday, over before midnight. I think outside of Long Island, it's a 2-4 snowfall, light powdery variety, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agree with snowman about the 6z GFS. According to the ne forum it moved sw a little more inline with the rest of the models!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Agree with snowman about the 6z GFS. According to the ne forum it moved sw a little more inline with the rest of the models!!!!!imo this is a Long Island and New England special, maybe eastern nyc. I honestly think it's more of a 1-3 snowfall, especially north and west of nyc. Very light snow outside of the band of moderate to heavier snow that sets up and guaranteed it hits the areas above I mentioned. Real quick mover though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Upton is calling for an inverted trough development (norlun). If that's the case then we know what areas they almost always favor. The thing is, wherever it sets up, there will be screw zones with the subsidence on either side of where the band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I see that we're down to the Norlun trough talk with this one, getting desperate in here.Upton is talking about it in their forecast discussion this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM running yet folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM running yet folks? Moves the surface low right over us, still early but looks like 1-3"/2-4" at first glance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Moves the surface low right over us, still early but looks like 1-3"/2-4" at first glance.... We r starting to get consistency, not the kind most were hoping for but we will have a better idea by time Euro comes out & I think one way or the other we will be at 75% certainty by tonight ( though not final as sampling is tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We r starting to get consistency, not the kind most were hoping for but we will have a better idea by time Euro comes out & I think one way or the other we will be at 75% certainty by tonight ( though not final as sampling is tomorrow)0z tonight should pretty much settle it, outside of Long Island this is looking to be a quick 1-3 of arctic powder for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It just looks like a strong arctic front to me at least for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah...1-2"/2-4" type deal, hopefully....these type systems have lately got less impressive as we get closer. Any true coastal precip is confined to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah...1-2"/2-4" type deal, hopefully....these type systems have lately got less impressive as we get closer. Any true coastal precip is confined to Maine. Basing your forecast on the long range NAM, not the smartest idea... The NAM keeps the 500mb low weak and has shifted the track each of the last four runs. It has been anything but consistent. The negativity around here is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Basing your forecast on the long range NAM, not the smartest idea... The NAM keeps the 500mb low weak and has shifted the track each of the last four runs. It has been anything but consistent. The negativity around here is ridiculous. Every model save the GGEM has us in 1"-4" now, my map from early yesterday still looks spot on, very high confidence with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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