David-LI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The Euro has an inch of QPF for NYC (.99 to be exact) and temperatures falling through the teens during the heaviest snow. What is the timeframe of the heaviest snows this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What is the timeframe of the heaviest snows this run?Saturday evening to early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The 12z GFS has 6.2" at LGA on 0.42" LE and and 7.5" at JFK with on 0.52" LE ISP is the big winner with 9.7" on 0.64" LE. wrong threat. the gfs was a whiff for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 wrong threat. the gfs was a whiff for this storm Yeah I just realized that, too many threads, very confusing for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Eurowx map shows 18+ for nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Eurowx map shows 18+ for nyc area That's a sure-fire way for nothing to happen. That's the pattern for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Eurowx map shows 18+ for nyc areacan you post it Ant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Eurowx map shows 18+ for nyc area Where have we seen this before? and has yet to work out for anyone NYC west. Hopefully that will not be the case this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Where have we seen this before? and has yet to work out for anyone NYC west. Hopefully that will not be the case this time around. Especially this far out. Let the northward trend commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Summarizing 12z Guidance Sat (2/14) - Mon (2/16) GFS: Moderate Hit (Sunday) GGEM : Miss - has threat wed -thu ( 2/18 -19) UKMET: ECM: Significant hit (Sunday into Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Especially this far out. Let the northward trend commence. I will become much more interested in this threat after the 12z runs on Thursday, for the time being I am more interested in the storm threat for later in the week, one storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Eurowx map shows 18+ for nyc area I hope this storm does occur, but the euro has been doing this all season. I am already over 100 inches in missed snow using these euro snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The sad thing is thats using the euro in under 144 hours . Which used to be non fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I hope this storm does occur, but the euro has been doing this all season. I am already over 100 inches in missed snow using these euro snow maps. Euro seems to be the mega hype model now. If the weenie wants to see a blizzard on the map, all he has to do is look at Euro. I wonder what happened to the Euro, it used to be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro seems to be the mega hype model now. If the weenie wants to see a blizzard on the map, all he has to do is look at Euro. I wonder what happened to the Euro, it used to be great.look euro is the most underrated model since that non blizzard. First off all the euro caught the ice storm a week before the blizzard and also steered nyc in the blizzard, yes the cut off was way more east than the euro depicted but you've got to remember that the GFS and all other guidance had the blizzard way east missing even SNE. The point is the euro is still the best model in the long range. I'd pay attention also to the navgem as the model has been amazingly way better than the nam and CMC. I'd blend the euro/gfs/navgem in my forecasting. Ukmet is also good but more confusing and at times is very erratic like the jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's funny.....I feel like all of these "total precip" maps spit out by the models are unchanged from one storm to the next. NYC area on the western fringe of the heavy snows, ELI into all of SNE hit hard, and Boston area jackpot. It really is true.....it likes to snow where it has snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At least there are threats right? I wouldn't mind getting the leftovers while living vicariously through Boston. I wonder what kind of records they'll shattered this has bee an incredible period for that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Summarizing 12z Guidance Sat (2/14) - Mon (2/16) GFS: Moderate Hit (Sunday) GGEM : Miss - has threat wed -thu ( 2/18 -19) UKMET: ECM: Significant hit (Sunday into Monday) Just to be clear here. You say ECM is sunday into monday, but it actually shows heavy snow saturday night correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 look euro is the most underrated model since that non blizzard. First off all the euro caught the ice storm a week before the blizzard and also steered nyc in the blizzard, yes the cut off was way more east than the euro depicted but you've got to remember that the GFS and all other guidance had the blizzard way east missing even SNE. The point is the euro is still the best model in the long range. I'd pay attention also to the navgem as the model has been amazingly way better than the nam and CMC. I'd blend the euro/gfs/navgem in my forecasting. Ukmet is also good but more confusing and at times is very erratic like the jma It has been overhyping things though. I've lost count of the number of times it has shown 1 to 2 feet of snow for NYC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just to be clear here. You say ECM is sunday into monday, but it actually shows heavy snow saturday night correct? Sat into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It has been overhyping things though. I've lost count of the number of times it has shown 1 to 2 feet of snow for NYC this winter.your right... All models have been erratic this year and quite frankly u can't trust them beyond 48 hours. They used to be better but weather isn't an exact science so mother nature does what she does. I'm excited about the upcoming snow threats though. I really have a feeling we could get 20-40 inches of snow this month in NYC. I don't think Boston will be the Bullseye anymore... I think nyc up to islip could end up being the bullseye. I predicted 54 inches for nyc back in September I'm still on the same boat. I just don't see us not getting at least 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Sat into Sunday Thanks. So he made a typo when he said sunday into monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It has been overhyping things though. I've lost count of the number of times it has shown 1 to 2 feet of snow for NYC this winter.I think altogether, if a model is days or even under one day out, and we find ourselves right on the edge of a snowstorm, we just cannot count on it or assume that for some reason it will "trend south", etc.....also, if most models are showing it as a light event and not a major event, we have to learn to accept that it will most likely be a light event rather than something more. With all of the trust issues that everyone has developed with this model and that model, I see nothing wrong with just expecting the average between certain major models. If it turns out to be something much more than maybe only one model caught on to, then great.....but for the most part, it simply won't. When you have an area that sticks out like eastern New England and storms that develop further north, it only makes sense that the areas that stick out are going to get the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro ens east according to New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro ens east according to New England forum. That is extremely vague! EURO was a huge hit for the NYC area so a little east is fine.... but how far east is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That is extremely vague! EURO was a huge hit for the NYC area so a little east is fine.... but how far east is it? It's east enough to basically have flurries here and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well, that was short-lived. There are about 6 or 7 members that bring measurable precip to the area, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's east enough to basically have flurries here and that's it. That's why we need this to stay closed off like a bowling ball rolling through the Great Lakes to the coast. The ensemble mean is more like the UKMET which opens up east of the GL and the surface low slips too far east before deepening. But the OP and mean are pretty close through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z continues to kick this east...only leaving a inv trough for snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z continues to kick this east...only leaving a inv trough for snjOne storm at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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