Nygmen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Compare this run to 18z, it looks worse nothing of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If it will fold, it will fold at the last second. Time for the Euro and GGEM. lol i love that you're always positive (stronger man than I am!), however, this year a positive attitude with storms has just led to disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ah crap I didn't realize I wrote Boob! Now it's a burst only if gfs wins lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 nothing of significance.I thought it looked a bit worse but you're right just noise. However, the troubling part is this, it's consistent. Consistently a non event for us run after run even with the new data it just got. If it was jumping around or if this was a miller a coming out of the gulf, I would dismiss it, however, this is a totally different story. Let's see what the ggem, ukmet and euro do shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I would like to remind everyone that the GFS had a long duration snow event for the NYC area for 4 consecutive days last storm. Could this solution be right? Absolutely. But this jumping off cliffs because one model shows a bad outcome for NYC is just ridiculous. Especially when the storm isn't supposed to be cranking for 72-84 hours from now. You'd think we're 6 hours from the event the way people react. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't really follow the whole "caving" bit. It's not as if any of the other model solutions are spectacular for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't really follow the whole "caving" bit. It's not as if any of the other model solutions are spectacular for us.We're not all from Dutchess county, for some of us 6+ inches of snow falling with temperatures in the low teens and 50 mph wind gusts, is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We're not all from Dutchess county, for some of us 6+ inches of snow falling with temperatures in the low teens and 50 mph wind gusts, is a big deal. You'll have no shortage of cold breezes on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I would like to remind everyone that the GFS had a long duration snow event for the NYC area for 4 consecutive days last storm. Could this solution be right? Absolutely. But this jumping off cliffs because one model shows a bad outcome for NYC is just ridiculous. Especially when the storm isn't supposed to be cranking for 72-84 hours from now. You'd think we're 6 hours from the event the way people react. At the end of the day, the models ended up too far south and west, just like with every storm this winter at this range. If the other models tonight stay robust, this can be something to keep an eye on, but if they retreat north and make this a New England special, it might be time to tune this one out. This has to really dig and go neutral tilt at least before it can make a real impact beyond places that have been getting snowed in like crazy already. At this point you just have to look at what's happening in SNE and how many ways it can screw places south of there and just laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 lol i love that you're always positive (stronger man than I am!), however, this year a positive attitude with storms has just led to disappointment What's the point of always being negative? I don't really follow the whole "caving" bit. It's not as if any of the other model solutions are spectacular for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You'll have no shortage of cold breezes on the GFS.I guess... I'm not looking for huge snowfall totals as that is a low probability, but a low end warning snow with those temperatures and the winds depicted by the euro would be awesome. Let's see what the rest of the guidance looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 RGEM GGEM UKMET?Only goes out to 48 hours, too early, too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At the end of the day, the models ended up too far south and west, just like with every storm this winter at this range. If the other models tonight stay robust, this can be something to keep an eye on, but if they retreat north and make this a New England special, it might be time to tune this one out. This has to really dig and go neutral tilt at least before it can make a real impact beyond places that have been getting snowed in like crazy already. At this point you just have to look at what's happening in SNE and how many ways it can screw places south of there and just laugh. There is no doubt that SNE has been favored this winter. And every single storm has found a way to screw us so far. But all it takes is one storm to buck the trend. I think the telling signs will be when tomorrow's storm bombs and exits. We need that to be in position to help us out with the trough position, etc. Hopefully it works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yea just like the one tmrw where it had me getting a blizzard sub 100 hours out...stop posting crap like this, thanks. It's not perfect. But it does better with northern stream systems vs southern. Just stating a fact. It's not crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GGEM H5 goes below NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ggem looks like it's caving to the GFS through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z GGEM H5 goes below NYC What does that mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ggem looks like it's caving to the GFS through 72 0-2 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ggem looks like it's caving to the GFS through 72 It's way south of the GFS through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yup at 84 no cave, it appeared it was caving a bit though before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 H5 goes south of philly on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big hit on the GGEM for the NYC area at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the low exits the Delmarva, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM is a tick NE of 12z. Not a huge jump, at least not at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yup at 84 no cave, it appeared it was caving a bit though before that snoski was ready to jump ...lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Having the H5 going south of the area will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0-2 tonight 1-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The NAM being where it is leads me to believe the GFS is wrong for sure this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What's the qpf look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the low exits the Delmarva, correct? Yes! Perfect spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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