IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The surface low at 18z Saturday is 3mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The surface low at 18z Saturday is 3mb stronger. Vort energy still to far north....the gfs will not cave this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Slight shift West with the surface low but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Vort energy still to far north....the gfs will not cave this runIt isn't caving at all this run, wow, it started to look like it was going to given what it was doing out west but it didn't budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Vort energy still to far north....the gfs will not cave this run Indeed, not going to get it done, but it was still an improvement. The trough was sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro digging the vort into Pa while the 18z gfs is in upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z will have more fresh data in it, so hopefully we see further improvement and possibly a cave by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro digging the vort into Pa while the 18z gfs is in upstate NY I'm not worried about this. The NAM was further south. That should tell you all you need to know. Four days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z will have more fresh data in it, so hopefully we see further improvement and possibly a cave by then.Honestly I thought it would cave a little bit now, then all out fold at 0z but I'm not so sure anymore, it didn't budge really. If it doesn't cave at 0z then it's time to get worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The trend on the GFS was still towards a more positive outcome and that's the best you can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You'll need far more substantial changes than a few ticks. Even eastern NE doesn't do too well on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Isentropic: Agreed completely. Hope for run to run improvements and try to get in the jackpot zone within 36-48 hours of the event. Unlike past events, there is a lot of room for error here, as we need to see what tomorrow's storm does before having any idea where this weekend's storm is going. If I recall correctly, the slopfest storm the Friday prior to the blizzard bust was a big reason the storm hit even the areas it did. We'll need tomorrow's storm to help slow things down in similar fashion (and hope the outcome is better for us in NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You'll need far more substantial changes than a few ticks. Even eastern NE doesn't do too well on the 18z gfs. Huh? Boston was 6-8" this run and that's using conservative SV numbers. Downeast Maine was 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You'll need far more substantial changes than a few ticks. Even eastern NE doesn't do too well on the 18z gfs.We got shafted not New England. Same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=102ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_102_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=108ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_108_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model It's a bit further north focusing towards Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Isentropic: Agreed completely. Hope for run to run improvements and try to get in the jackpot zone within 36-48 hours of the event. Unlike past events, there is a lot of room for error here, as we need to see what tomorrow's storm does before having any idea where this weekend's storm is going. If I recall correctly, the slopfest storm the Friday prior to the blizzard bust was a big reason the storm hit even the areas it did. We'll need tomorrow's storm to help slow things down in similar fashion (and hope the outcome is better for us in NYC). The energy responsible for this is currently up over the Arctic circle in a very poor sampling area. Even worse than the systems out over the Pacific. In this case the amplitude and strength of this energy will be very important factors in determing the final outcome, but on paper this is a powder keg. That's why you're seeing explosive deepening once the trough goes negative tilt. Two things with this... 1) The system is coming directly from the Arctic circle. It will have plenty of fresh, cold air to work with. 2) The moisture will be limited until the surface low develops and flips the winds in off the ocean. We really need this to get its act together a lot sooner, and the only way that's going to happen is if the 500mb low is able to dig further southwest and give this more time to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 IT: I agree. You are far more well-versed in this stuff than I am. I'm sure there are differences between this and the blizzard bust, but hopefully things work out this time for NYC and points west. At least we've got the "powder keg"; now we need the spark. Either way, I still believe there is time for this to trend towards us in a big way. We're 84 hours out (72 when we get the new model runs). Obviously that has not been the case this winter, but hopefully this storm is the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LOL, seriously? There was one last year of 12.5". And there have only been 22 in the last 56 years. It's not a common occurrence. The 12.5 was cumulative, not in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12.5 was cumulative, not in a day. It used to be on their site as a 12.5" storm. Now they don't even have the 9.5" as a 6"+ storm. Something's screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hr 75 vort diving into central pa on the nam...really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hr 78 light snow...flow out ahead of the vort north to east...not conducive for a costal closer tucked into the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z NAM now has the 500mb low near Philly and then ACY. this is getting interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A step in the right direction but it needs to dig a good amount more. The 500mb low has to go underneath you to have a real shot at heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it's the tail end of the NAM... at least it looks more like the euro than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z NAM now has the 500mb low near Philly and then ACY. this is getting interesting Noticeable shifts south now. Need it a bit further south and the digging to happen a bit further to the southwest earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A step in the right direction but it needs to dig a good amount more. The 500mb low has to go underneath you to have a real shot at heavy snow.It does, albeit barely. Still time to get this to dig a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A step in the right direction but it needs to dig a good amount more. The 500mb low has to go underneath you to have a real shot at heavy snow. 500mb low goes thru Central NJ, then ACY and then under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It does, albeit barely. Still time to get this to dig a little more.78-84 hr Nam, enough said my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 500mb low goes thru Central NJ, then ACY and then under LI. I would think there would be more snow than it's showing if that's the case. This is going to explode once it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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