IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 500mb low on the NAM ends up over NE PA. And that's at hr 84 when the NAM is usually way too far northwest. I now have zero doubt in my mind that this is coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 CPK has not had a KU storm deliver 12 or more inches since Jan 2011. Helluva drought. LOL, seriously? There was one last year of 12.5". And there have only been 22 in the last 56 years. It's not a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The NAM and GFS are both about the same, thats a good indicator the GFS is probably wrong. Agreed, I'm not sure we're going to end up getting the goods, but I think the 500mb low eventually ends up tracking over SNJ or the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 1) The end of a NAM run is useless 2) Correct me if I'm wrong, but it is usually a northern outlier at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 vs Nice post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 When does the next gfs run? 1130 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 When does the next gfs run? 1130 pm? 18z starts in 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 When does the next gfs run? 1130 pm? In about fifteen minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 When does the next gfs run? 1130 pm? 18z within15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 When does the next gfs run? 1130 pm? Very shortly... around 4:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, seriously? There was one last year of 12.5". And there have only been 22 in the last 56 years. It's not a common occurrence. ha ha ha exactly. These kids today I'll tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 500mb low on the NAM ends up over NE PA. And that's at hr 84 when the NAM is usually way too far northwest. I now have zero doubt in my mind that this is coming south. Me neither. This is going to be a big deal for saturday IMO. Snowgoose is right, when the GFS and NAM agree like that, the GFS solution is almost always wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, seriously? There was one last year of 12.5". And there have only been 22 in the last 56 years. It's not a common occurrence. Historically speaking but there is reason to believe while we are trending towards a tighter or somewhat shorter window for the winter season that more extreme or high impact precipitation events might be the norm or occur more regularly in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is such a powder keg at H5. The NAM and to an extent the rest of the guidance develop a surface low near the vorticy East of the benchmark and that eventually pulls everything East. Time will tell if that is bogus or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Either way this thread the needle setup for our region mostly favors NYC and points NE, maybe E NJ too. I wouldn't be getting your hopes up if you live in W NJ or TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Folks are just spoiled around here. NYC From 1984 to March 1993 had very little in the way of decent storms....that's a decade of essentially nothing....especially when you compare it to what's gone on here in the last 10-12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, seriously? There was one last year of 12.5". And there have only been 22 in the last 56 years. It's not a common occurrence. Unfortunately it has become the 'norm' to many who don't look at the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm ready for another big storm, eastern Suffolk done rather well this winter.... One thingto also consider, to much of a south trend can be a bad thing correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It sucks when there's so much potential but it's just not enough. Eastern NE is in a good spot even if things don't work out but here it's another painful reminder. Wow you should stop posting.Same thing over and over again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It sucks when there's so much potential but it's just not enough. Eastern NE is in a good spot even if things don't work out but here it's another painful reminder. take a road trip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 ha ha ha exactly. These kids today I'll tell ya. They didn't live through the 80s. It's like Yankee fans born after 1991. Historically speaking but there is reason to believe while we are trending towards a tighter or somewhat shorter window for the winter season that more extreme or high impact precipitation events might be the norm or occur more regularly in the future. Perhaps that's true, but it's historically rare. Unfortunately it has become the 'norm' to many who don't look at the big picture. In the 21 years from 1979-80 through 1999-2000, there were only 3 foot+ storms. In the 15 years since, there have been 9. It's definitely become more common, but remember we live in NYC, not the snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm doubtful of this really hitting us hard (especially S and W of WLI), however if we're going to really examine the long range NAM, it was an improvement over 12z. Not a deal breaker, but definitely not a terrible thing to see something more favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice post Yes, thanks for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm doubtful of this really hitting us hard (especially S and W of WLI), however if we're going to really examine the long range NAM, it was an improvement over 12z. Not a deal breaker, but definitely not a terrible thing to see something more favorable NAM made significant swings and adjustments on the last couple storms once inside of 60 hrs. I'd wait another day before taking anything on the NAM seriously. But the fact it's near the GFS currently does give pause to just trying to hug the Euro/GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Folks are just spoiled around here. NYC From 1984 to March 1993 had very little in the way of decent storms....that's a decade of essentially nothing....especially when you compare it to what's gone on here in the last 10-12 years. I'm glad you pointed that out. I was telling this to my son today dropping him off at Pre-K; basically, Daddy never had winters like this when he was a kid. (He's 4. He doesn't understand) My best friend (who is now a professional met) and I used to watch TWC religiously as kids... and were disappointed every year running until 1994. When you're a kid, it was an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The PNA ridge is ticking West. This should be an improved run. I would be shocked if the 500mb low tracked another further North than NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The PNA ridge is ticking West. This should be an improved run. I would be shocked if the 500mb low tracked another further North than NJ.Already, it looks like it's going south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Already, it looks like it's going south of 12zlooks more amplified and south. So far. Yanks take it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's just a subtle shift West but you can see it looking at the ULL retrograding over the US Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Folks are just spoiled around here. NYC From 1984 to March 1993 had very little in the way of decent storms....that's a decade of essentially nothing....especially when you compare it to what's gone on here in the last 10-12 years. I think of that as the period when folks who don't like snow got spoiled and developed unrealistic expectations of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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