Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensembles don't give us anything close to what the operational didwhat are the ensembles qpf? Not that it matters but I'm assuming it's wetter than 0z model suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensembles don't give us anything close to what the operational did . Like isentropic said, we need that 500mb low at least 100 miles further south You are misinterpreting what he said....it needs to be further south and west to get a better result, not to match the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 ur just guessing there. The trend here is for a bigger and snowier storm. GFS will come around especially the fact that it already showed a monster inverted trough just yesterday. We are inside of 100 hours or less and we are sitting at a good seat sort of speak and let this thing really play out. Isotherm made me happy when we mentioned the east coast blocking and a -1 NAO could only slow this amplification down and really build the heights as soon as the storm goes offshore. Like yanksfan said we want this thing to really dig and turn just south of Atlantic city!The ensemble mean has the 500mb low over northern New Jersey. It can't take that track if you want a meaningful snowstorm for our area, it has to go significantly south like isentropic said, as in 100 miles or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensembles don't give us anything close to what the operational did . Like isentropic said, we need that 500mb low at least 100 miles further south OK but a shift of 200 S, SW is clearly a trend... come on now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I stand corrected, the ensemble is closer to the op than I thought...now this is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 More AO blocking would have ended up very close to the 1978 UL track moving to our south first. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb58_1978_500_loop.gif This is the AO forecast for today.. Rather significant change from yesterday. It's looking to trend her negative. This could get the job done..Edit : I don't know why the picture won't load but here is the link : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensemble mean really isn't very far from the OP for a 96 hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Let's just already say we get a few snow showers while SNE and Boston get 1-2'. I think it's pretty clear by now how things are setting up. Looks like your one tenth of an inch call will not verify . Boston is the easier call here as they are likely to be on the receiving end of another Blizzard and a very cold one at that . If people just temper their expectations then a nice 4 to 6 inch storm is on the table . No need to go big , the guidance does not suggest it yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The perfect track of the 500mb low for us would be Pittsburgh to DC to VA Beach. We have a long way to go for that to happen, but if we can just get it to track SW of Philly we'll have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensemble mean really isn't very far from the OP for a 96 hr forecast. get_legacy_plot-web248-20150211202852-4225-0661.gif No it's real close. Man what a turnaround of events since the Canadian came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like your one tenth of an inch call will not verify . Boston is the easier call here as they are likely to be on the receiving end of another Blizzard and a very cold one at that . If people just temper their expectations then a nice 4 to 6 inch storm is on the table . No need to go big , the guidance does not suggest it yet . One thing seems certain, we will definitely see more than snow showers saturday as it stands at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There is no certainty we are getting a 4-6 inch snow...haven't people learned their lesson..it could easily be an inch...stop the model hugging and ratio talk and lets get a consecutive run of model consensus before we jump on anything I am so NOT shocked that you missed the entire point of tempering expectations . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am so NOT shocked that you missed the entire point of tempering expectations .Paul...seriously some people on here need to start posting in the banter, including myself so I'll take my discussion there but 1 inch seems unlikely and 4-6 is more likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Paul...seriously some people on here need to start posting in the banter, including myself so I'll take my discussion there but 1 inch seems unlikely and 4-6 is more likely!If nothing changes by 00z we will be running out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No one is nor should anyone attach numbers 4 days out . The post was think small , The Euro and GEM had more but the smarter way to look at this is to ignore what Boston will get as their set up is much more favorable than ours and just tempers ones expectations then you will not find 50 posts yelling bust , if this breaks down . If you think 4 and get 2 , ok it happens . If one is hoping that 12 is going to pop up and it does not then the groaning that will go on will be to much to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too much KU hunting. Enjoy watching this rare and unusual event unfold regardless of what falls in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We should just watch trends, models over the next few days. Leave the bickering for the Banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Like others have said mean looks great for a warning type snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If this was to track closer to the coast. We wouldnt really have to worry about temps? Any mets or anyone to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If this was to track closer to the coast. We wouldnt really have to worry about temps? Any mets or anyone to chime in? No. Similarly to the busted blizzard, temps are the least of your worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If this was to track closer to the coast. We wouldnt really have to worry about temps? Any mets or anyone to chime in? Nope temps will definitely not be an issue here... bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM....meh, well north/east although eastern sections get some accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too much KU hunting. Enjoy watching this rare and unusual event unfold regardless of what falls in your backyard. CPK has not had a KU storm deliver 12 or more inches since Jan 2011. Helluva drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM....meh, well north/east although eastern sections get some accumsYep, GFS like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM....meh, well north/east although eastern sections get some accums Compared to 12z thought the vort was digging more and also more consolidated.....looked better then 12z overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 CPK has not had a KU storm deliver 12 or more inches since Jan 2011. Helluva drought. Never really believed this post. Whoever measures in CPK must do a horrible job. Im literally 15-20 miles west of NYC, and I have at least had 5+ 12 or more inches events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM....meh, well north/east although eastern sections get some accums the h5 low was about 150 miles further south compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Compared to 12z thought the vort was digging more and also more consolidated.....looked better then 12z overall Agree...this was a good deal better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NAM....meh, well north/east although eastern sections get some accums The NAM and GFS are both about the same, thats a good indicator the GFS is probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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