PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Does anyone have the EURO/GGEM snowmap? 4 at KNYC 15 in Boston . Do you really want to see that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Does anyone have the EURO/GGEM snowmap?The euro one is in the New England forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 4 at KNYC 15 in Boston . Do you really want to see that ? To note that snowmap from the EURO I believe does not take in account for ratios... that will be the major plus with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 4 at KNYC 15 in Boston . Do you really want to see that ?PB, what are your thoughts with this? Do you think the GFS folds to the other models at 0z or does GFS score a coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Verbatim off that EURO map in the NE forum, we would be 5"-7" area wide...with yes BOS crushed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Someone in the NE forum said that the gfs ensembles were more south an west. Can anyone back this up? Is it better or worse for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Need more ridging and if we only had a little bit of blocking then we could grab this and pull it closer . More AO blocking would have ended up very close to the 1978 UL track moving to our south first. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb58_1978_500_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 PB, what are your thoughts with this? Do you think the GFS folds to the other models at 0z or does GFS score a coop? 500 MB on the EURO GEM UKMET JMA look great ! I $%^&* hate INV . There should be some snow through the area and it`s a nice powder ,. I think the easy forecast is once again that Boston gets crushed . For us , You going to have to wait to see this vort get better sampled and see which model bows to the other . Would like to see this at 0z tomorrow and see what the trend is The EURO looks like it wants to develop a second low S of the BM . Lets see if that`s a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 500 MB on the EURO GEM UKMET JMA look great ! I $%^&* hate INV . There should be some snow through the area and it`s a nice powder ,. I think the easy forecast is once again that Boston gets crushed again . For us , You going to have to wait to see this vort get better sampled and see which model bows to the other . Would like to see this at 0z tomorrow and see what the trend is Got ya, the thing that gives me pause is the fact that the euro ensembles from last night did not support much of anything around the area, only the operational showed an event. I know we have the canadian, ukie and jma with hits in one form or another, but can we rely on them? This is a tough one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Got ya, the thing that gives me pause is the fact that the euro ensembles from last night did not support much of anything around the area, only the operational showed an event. I know we have the canadian, ukie and jma with hits in one form or another, but can we rely on them? This is a tough one The guidance aloft at 12z rallied in our favor ( x the GFS ) . We are not that far off from a great solution . But it`s early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Got ya, the thing that gives me pause is the fact that the euro ensembles from last night did not support much of anything around the area, only the operational showed an event. I know we have the canadian, ukie and jma with hits in one form or another, but can we rely on them? This is a tough one ens have followed the op a couple times in showing big hits for this area the past few events,hasn't really meant much it'd be nice to see them on board regardless though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Great info today guys! These threads have been great for getting info out. Nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There will be blocking prior to this event, albeit less than ideal and east based. The NAO dips to -1 SD this weekend as the mid level ridge expands near Iceland / Scandinavia. This does aid in somewhat slowing down the vorts in the upstream flow, while not as effective as a west based block, is often a feature in our events. So to say there's no blocking is inaccurate. We have a strongly negative EPO / positive PNA w/ higher than normal heights encompassing the entire region from Siberia through western North America, and an east based -NAO spike. Only the AO is truly unfavorable here. We also need to consider the potency of the vort itself, and its ability to amplify and pump heights ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Great info today guys! These threads have been great for getting info out. Nice job I agree less banter and more serious discussion. I just dont want people diving off a cliff when the 18 Z GFS shows 1/10 of 1 inch. patience, patience. For all intents and purposes , we simply need to get .75 QPF to all be very happy, with ratos factored in. Then we lock in artic cold and play snow roulette with the next overunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Someone in the NE forum said that the gfs ensembles were more south an west. Can anyone back this up? Is it better or worse for us? Yes, they were, about 5 or so members were souh and west of the Op, 2-3 were very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, they were, about 5 or so members were souh and west of the Op, 2-3 were very much so. Out of how many? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 two reasons why I wouldn't dismiss the GFS. 1. It's the best model. 2. It's better with northern stream systems miller b's. Navgem is my favorite underrated model I wonder what is this model showing? The NavGEM looks more like the other models than the GFS FWIW, the NavGEM has been surprisingly good this last month or two inside Day 4 on storm details in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes, they were, about 5 or so members were souh and west of the Op, 2-3 were very much so. So then that would be good for our area correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We want south near virgina / delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think by tomorrow's 12z models we should know the probable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I agree less banter and more serious discussion. I just dont want people diving off a cliff when the 18 Z GFS shows 1/10 of 1 inch. patience, patience. For all intents and purposes , we simply need to get .75 QPF to all be very happy, with ratos factored in. Then we lock in artic cold and play snow roulette with the next overunning event0z tonight should be telling. Normally, I'd say the GFS is an outlier, toss it, but again, this is a northern stream system. But as of right now it's GFS vs the world, pending what the euro ensembles show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We want south near virgina / delmarva If the models trend towards the 500mb low near VA then this would be a monster for all of us. There is some blocking as Isotherm alluded to, so if the models pick up on those features it could make a world of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the models trend towards the 500mb low near VA then this would be a monster for all of us. There is some blocking as Isotherm alluded to, so if the models pick up on those features it could make a world of differencei agree. Imo I think the models are still catching up and as far as I know I think this only trends as a bigger storm. And it could be huge! Foot or more nyc and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro ensemble mean tracks the 500mb low over NNJ. We want it to be 50-100 miles further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro ensemble mean tracks the 500mb low over NNJ. We want it to be 50-100 miles further southwest. How is that compared to the last ENS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 How is that compared to the last ENS run? A major shift south, southwest. 00z tracked over upstate NY and then to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A major shift south, southwest. 00z tracked over upstate NY and then to the Cape. hopefully it's still got some room to correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A major shift south, southwest. 00z tracked over upstate NY and then to the Cape. Sounds great to me... lets keep it shifting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yet again, the ensembles don't agree with the operational. Don't be surprised to see the models trends back towards GFS tonight IMO ?? The ensembles are very close to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yet again, the ensembles don't agree with the operational. Don't be surprised to see the models trends back towards GFS tonight IMOur just guessing there. The trend here is for a bigger and snowier storm. GFS will come around especially the fact that it already showed a monster inverted trough just yesterday. We are inside of 100 hours or less and we are sitting at a good seat sort of speak and let this thing really play out. Isotherm made me happy when we mentioned the east coast blocking and a -1 NAO could only slow this amplification down and really build the heights as soon as the storm goes offshore. Like yanksfan said we want this thing to really dig and turn just south of Atlantic city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.