snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 With the ratios this is a 6 to 12 for everyone.Not from what I saw, not even close to being a foot in NYC and areas north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Coastal Monmouth? More or less then NYC Similar. With the temps so cold, 5"-10" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Im guessing more than 0.1" QPF for the region? If Low is off ACY, I think we are ok...this season has been great you gotta admit. It looks like nothing changed SNE gets crushed while we get moderate snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Let's see the euro ensembles but this may actually be turning into an event for us surprisingly. The gfs is pretty much the only one showing zippo but then again this is a northern stream system which gfs does normally do good with lol just like it nailed the blizzard it showed for us 24 hours ago for thursday...oh wait LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston is a foot plus this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Another big test for New GFS vs. EURO/GGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 .4 for most . Minus 15 to Minus 18 . Close to 20 to 1 . That looks like 8 max as per this run . 35 mph winds for most with Gusts to 55 on Long Island . At 500 EURO GEM UKIE JMA look similar all vs the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol just like it nailed the blizzard it showed for us 24 hours ago for thursday...oh wait LMAOThe 12z runs are GFS and GEFS vs the world. That said, I definitely would not dismiss the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WxBell shows 3-5" for the area but 850's are -10 to -15C with 0.3" to 0.4" LE. It's probably at least 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This further south solution will force Tuesday to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 12z runs are GFS and GEFS vs the world. That said, I definitely would not dismiss the GFS solutiontwo reasons why I wouldn't dismiss the GFS. 1. It's the best model. 2. It's better with northern stream systems miller b's. Navgem is my favorite underrated model I wonder what is this model showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 two reasons why I wouldn't dismiss the GFS. 1. It's the best model. 2. It's better with northern stream systems miller b's. Navgem is my favorite underrated model I wonder what is this model showing? Perhaps your wish casting for a blizzard should stay in the banter threads from now on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Perhaps your wish casting for a blizzard should stay in the banter threads from now on...how am I wishcasting son? I'm stating the obvious! Which part of my comment was banter? All I said was this is a blizzard from Long Island to Boston and a moderate snow for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 two reasons why I wouldn't dismiss the GFS. 1. It's the best model. 2. It's better with northern stream systems miller b's. Navgem is my favorite underrated model I wonder what is this model showing?Exactly, this has happened before where the Canadian, Ukmet, Euro, NAM and JMA were all showing hits and the GFS was by itself and ended up being right, that's why I would not flat out dismiss it but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 .4 for most . Minus 15 to Minus 18 . Close to 20 to 1 . That looks like 8 max as per this run . 35 mph winds for most with Gusts to 55 on Long Island . At 500 EURO GEM UKIE JMA look similar all vs the GFS . The low really bombs out from 6z Sun at 982 near BM to 972 east of CC 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Exactly, this has happened before where the Canadian, Ukmet, Euro, NAM and JMA were all showing hits and the GFS was by itself and ended up being right, that's why I would not flat out dismiss it but we shall see there has never been a time this close in where ALL those models were showing hits and the gfs wasnt and the gfs was right, literally never lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 there has never been a time this close in where ALL those models were showing hits and the gfs wasnt and the gfs was right, literally never lol.The "blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The low really bombs out from 6z Sun at 982 near BM to 972 east of CC 12z. Monster hit for Boston . 15 based on 15 to 1 And ratio`s would be 15 to 1 - Wind would hurt ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The "blizzard"You can add the RGEM to that list that agreed with the other models that storm too and the GFS ended up being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The "blizzard" most of the models were like the gfs...the euro and nam were by themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You can add the RGEM to that list that agreed with the other models that storm too and the GFS ended up being right Not entirely true. Though many models did show is getting hit with significant accumulations, models like the RGEM, among others, clearly showed us in the zone with the highest bust potential (extreme western part of the heavy snow area), with each run shifting slightly east until the 12" and eventually the 6" zones cleared out of much of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 most of the models were like the gfs...the euro and nam were by themselves 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 100% Thank God. For a moment I thought I was forgetting recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Monster hit for Boston . 15 based on 15 to 1 And ratio`s would be 15 to 1 - Wind would hurt ratios That's one of the deepest 500 mb lows that we have seen at this latitude in a while with a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Question for a novice. What needs to happen in order for this storm to blow up in our neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 From a novice* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's one of the deepest 500 mb lows that we have seen at this latitude in a while with a winter storm. ecmwf_z500a_sd_us_5.png Need more ridging and if we only had a little bit of blocking then we could grab this and pull it closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Need more ridging and if we only had a little bit of blocking then we could grab this and pull it closer . Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This thing looks insane for Boston again. Over 18" again? Lol just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Does anyone have the EURO/GGEM snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.