PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro is really close The GEM is N of where it was at 0z . Take the goggles off and watch for continuity . The trend is def N . The GEM is insane . You will need to see other guidance trend close to this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The GEM is N of where it was at 0z . Take the goggles off and watch for continuity . The trend is def N . The GEM is insane . You need to see other guidance that is close .Love your insight. The canadian is going north like you said, trends, trends, trends. Of course facebook will jump on the Canadian and hype that we are in for a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't fall into that same trap folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't fall into that same trap folks.!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't fall into that same trap folks. I for one am not. Until there is support to the 500mb low to dig further south, the GFS solution makes the most sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't fall into that same trap folks.this has a blizzard written all over it. Especially Long Island and north. City could really also get hammered by the inverted trough followed by the coldest air in over 15 years or more. Winter is here to stay. Cad signature for the storm on tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 this has a blizzard written all over it. Especially Long Island and north. City could really also get hammered by the inverted trough followed by the coldest air in over 15 years or more. Winter is here to stay. Cad signature for the storm on tuesday wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 dont fall into anthonys trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 wishcasting.i swear it's not. It makes total sense cause of the pattern and all the trends this year to blow up the low and since the coastal tomorrow will act as a 50/50 for the next storm it will slow down Saturday nights system. Makes sense for another blizzard for Boston and Long Island. Now New York city could really benefit also from this. Easy 6+ storm for nyc and east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 UKMET news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i swear it's not. It makes total sense cause of the pattern and all the trends this year to blow up the low and since the coastal tomorrow will act as a 50/50 for the next storm it will slow down Saturday nights system. Makes sense for another blizzard for Boston and Long Island. Now New York city could really benefit also from this. Easy 6+ storm for nyc and east!Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 At least the threat is still there. But I agree this thread is full of wish casting. I don't think anyone wants to go into this legit arctic outbreak with crusty crappy snow that fell weeks ago. But let's keep it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not every storm trends like its predecessors. That said, it's hard to ignore that every storm this winter has trended towards a less snowy solution for NYC. Between 2 and 4 days out (even less with the busted blizzard), every storm had NYC getting 12"+. Last week we had solutions giving the area 40 hours of snow. We didn't get a flake in NYC. And just like last week, there were plenty who thought that would trend towards a PD2 situation. I'd be very cautious in relying on a model depiction with an inverted trough, as those rarely come to fruition. I'm no met, and I hate to be a pessimist in a thread and winter full of them, but we need big changes to make this a big NYC storm, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's not a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 With the record breaking cold potential, wouldn't the high up north suppresse the storm further south? I haven't followed this storm at all so apologizes if the high is suppose to slide east or something. Wouldn't mind a rough summaryrecap of the setup for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 With the record breaking cold potential, wouldn't the high up north suppresse the storm further south? I haven't followed this storm at all so apologizes if the high is suppose to slide east or something. Wouldn't mind a rough summaryrecap of the setup for this storm.no the high wouldn't supress it because it's moving southeast like the clipper. The high pressure pretty much follows the clippers footsteps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's not a good look What were you expecting with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What were you expecting with this setup?Not a favorable setup by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not a favorable setup by any meansNot a bad look either though. I hate being in the JP zone 4 days out though. But hey I wouldn't mind a 6 inch snow event followed by historic cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not a favorable setup by any means It's a CLASSIC widespread Inverted trough setup. See March, 2013 for a recent similar event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not a bad look either though. I hate being in the JP zone 4 days out though. But hey I wouldn't mind a 6 inch snow event followed by historic cold!I love the enthusiasm, but there's no meteorological reasoning which I can see behind your thinking brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And the rich get richer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's a CLASSIC widespread Inverted trough setup. See March, 2013 for a recent similar event. Is the set up there for an inverted trough? Yes. But, come on brother. How fickle are these inverted throughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's a CLASSIC widespread Inverted trough setup. See March, 2013 for a recent similar event. that was a HUGE inverted trough in terms of coverage, we got about 6 inches of very wet snow in Brooklyn buy many in the LHV got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We're on the SW edge of the heavy snows. We've seen this before.....very recently actually. Could it happen? Yes. Are the odds in our favor? Definitely not.....even if the event was 24-36 hours out. Slight shift and we are not only out of the heavier snow band, but out of it entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Is the set up there for an inverted trough? Yes. But, come on brother. How fickle are these inverted throughs? I am not talking about the typical norlun trough crap that is isolated. With a powerful closed ULL in that position, it's a classic OTS original coastal with a widespread inverted trough that drops a widespread 3"-6" and then whoever gets into the meat of the trough jackpots with 6"-12"+ (likely LI or SNE). See March, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 that was a HUGE inverted trough in terms of coverage, we got about 6 inches of very wet snow in Brooklyn buy many in the LHV got over a foot. ULL setup is nearly identical to this. We just need the main ULL vort energy in the 500mb level to go south of LI and remain closed. If that occurs, the way the GGEM, UKMET and JMA have today at 12z, then I can't see how this insn't a widepread 3"-6"+ event. If the main energy is north of us, like the 12z GFS, then obviously, the main precip will go north with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 that was a HUGE inverted trough in terms of coverage, we got about 6 inches of very wet snow in Brooklyn buy many in the LHV got over a foot.Mar 2013 wasn't an inverted trough. It was a direct moisture plume thrown way west into New England around a closed 500mb low well out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Are the JMA/UKIE similar to the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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