ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let the event be over before saying it's wrong. No one in this area is getting .75" of precip. Not even close. .10"-.30" looks like the likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I wouldn't be declaring victory for any model just yet. The next batch coming in will probably drop a decent amount. The 09z SREF hangs precip around until at least 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Precip just about shut off now. 25 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The next batch is currently approaching Morristown and should last 3-4 hours. The 850mb low is still rotting away in Western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I wouldn't be declaring victory for any model just yet. The next batch coming in will probably drop a decent amount. The 09z SREF hangs precip around until at least 06z. 6z GFS has already busted miserably. Look at it's hour 6 total precip. Which was 7am (already passed) and tell me if it's even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Apparently very icy in LB this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This lull is great getting paid to chill now until the next batch. Broadway is totally just wet. Not as people are making it out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 6z GFS has already busted miserably. Look at it's hour 6 total precip. Which was 7am (already passed) and tell me if it's even close. That's the batch currently moving through S CT. Looks like it was just a bit too far South. Also, there are some 30-40dbz echoes up there which are probably sleet. I wonder if the GFS is smart enough to know that or if it is some type of convective error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Absolutely nothing here ...looks to stay that way,joe...radar looks very unimpressive..we will get ours on thurs/fri. 'eastern special' coming soon to a theatre near you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This lull is great getting paid to chill now until the next batch. Broadway is totally just wet. Not as people are making it out to be Broadway in Manhattan is probably not the greatest representation of a typical street. The amount of traffic alone is probably enough to overcome most of what has fallen. It's a different story out here. Any untreated surfaces are almost impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Apparently very icy in LB this morning. LBFD updated about 6:30. *WARNING* As of 6:30am, all roads and sidewalks in Long Beach (and most of the surrounding area) are completely iced over. Please use extreme caution if you need to be outside. Take it slow! - https://www.facebook.com/longbeachfiredepartment/photos/a.181240368746449.1073741833.164911420379344/332338580303293/?type=1&fref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Still nothing here in morristown. Although temps outside are falling and so are the temps inside my boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 ...looks to stay that way,joe...radar looks very unimpressive..we will get ours on thurs/fri. 'eastern special' coming soon to a theatre near you!! ...looks to stay that way,joe...radar looks very unimpressive..we will get ours on thurs/fri. 'eastern special' coming soon to a theatre near you!! Look to your west this break was very well represented on the HRRR that precip east of state college is heading along 78 and will be in the city and onto long island in the next few hours. The N shore of Long island is as sleet and ice covered. The next batch should change to snow this afternoon on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Brooklyn main streets mostly wet. Side roads slushy to crusty white. Traction not bad though. The Sleet causes a rough surface. Way better than that freezing rain smooth as glass slippery shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Still nothing here in morristown. Although temps outside are falling and so are the temps inside my boots. There is a chunk of 20+dbz echoes curently crossing the DE river and a few weaker areas out ahead of it. That should come East right along Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Still nothing here in morristown. Although temps outside are falling and so are the temps inside my boots. It's on your way. Sleeting here now. Very cold out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Broadway in Manhattan is probably not the greatest representation of a typical street. The amount of traffic alone is probably enough to overcome most of what has fallen. It's a different story out here. Any untreated surfaces are almost impossible. Agreed broadway in manhattan I not a good example. I'm sure it nasty outside the city. When I left wantagh it was raining moderately with little sleet. So it makes sense that a place like long beach has the worst conditions with more freezing rain then the rest of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Agreed broadway in manhattan I not a good example. I'm sure it nasty outside the city. When I left wantagh it was raining moderately with little sleet. So it makes sense that a place like long beach has the worst conditions with more freezing rain then the rest of the area In Northern Queens, untreated roads are sleet covered and almost all main roads and highway are heavily salted and easy to drive on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Neither the 12k or the 4k NAM seem to have a good handle on things currently. The 12k NAM has the 850mb freezing line south of MMU by 18z. I know this is a relatively low resolution product but if it's right the mixing currently extends well into Upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Actually it's freezing rain once again here. Surprised we are still getting the frzrn. We are camped out in downtown Morristown (across from Starbucks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What an awesome CAD signiature here. Just look for the bending isobars, pointed SW from Maine all the way into the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Actually it's freezing rain once again here. Surprised we are still getting the frzrn. We are camped out in downtown Morristown (across from Starbucks) 850mb temps are still running +1C to +2C over that area, and I'm guessing that the warm layer is probably deeper than that given the ZR and not IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Thick layer of ice on my car. Uggh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Snow beginning to mix in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another batch incoming to the city should be interesting precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Since I posted those maps from SPC it looks like temps have cooled aloft considerably, especially over northern areas. Currently light freezing rain here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Another batch incoming to the city should be interesting precip type If anyone is going to pick up accumulating snow this is probably the last chance. Most of the high res modeling really shuts things off after this batch moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Places in southern NJ that were at 60F yesterday now have wwa's. Its interesting watching the advisory zone sag south into DE over the last 18hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ice pellets here, it's very light though. 3" of frozen ball bearings on the ground. 18* with a steady light NNE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Southwestern Middlesex County NJ: temp 27 nice (?) coating of ice on everything. Has to be .15 or .2". Roads are passable if a bit slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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