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Snowathon Obs/ Nowcast 02/07-02/09


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Yeah. By city hall plaza to the commons, it's really not too bad at all. The parade had something to do with that of course.

 

Not directed at you NorEaster.... but We need more pics from eastern Mass.  For all this snow everyone has been talking about, haven't been seeing nearly enough photos of epicness ;)  Everyone has a smart phone, document this stuff guys!

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Hideous snow growth here... almost looks like snow grains. 

 

We had that for a while up here today on the mountain... even some freezing mist/drizzle above 2,500ft though nothing that affected the snow.  You only noticed it on your goggles.  The lack of larger forcing and ice nuclei is interesting.  But anytime the radar had echoes move in, the flakes increased in size and the mist went away.  Only when the radar was absent there was like that misting and snow grains going on below the beam.

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Jerry we've been in exhaust but northern portion of CF in Boston Harbor is pivoting west... I think we do well later tonight

 

Like clockwork the temps around Hull are ticking up since 4:30pm:

5pm:

attachicon.gifCF_5pm.png

Be kind to your friends on the South Shore :)

 

All kidding aside...CF is certainly on the move.  I have a feeling this will massively screw us tonight in the Hingham/Hull/Scituate area.  That being said, how can anyone feel that way after the last month?

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I feel like we're in the exhaust between the approach band from the west and the oes band to the south.

 

I posted (or meant to post) what the impact of the CF placement would be for the Concord area.  Are they close enough to get it or will they get relatively screwed because they're too far away?  My anxious brother wants to know.  :)

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I posted (or meant to post) what the impact of the CF placement would be for the Concord area.  Are they close enough to get it or will they get relatively screwed because they're too far away?  My anxious brother wants to know.  :)

 

Lets get him on the forums , that would be epic lol

 

Mike concord is like 18 Miles WNW of Boston. Unless CF surprises well to the W or NW he will not really get the CF enhancement at all or really be that close to the enhancement area.

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Lets get him on the forums , that would be epic lol

 

Mike concord is like 18 Miles WNW of Boston. Unless CF surprises well to the W or NW he will not really get the CF enhancement at all or really be that close to the enhancement area.

 

Thanks--I didn't think he'd be in the enhancement area (I think the CF will be right at the coast), but I interpreted something that Ray said yesterday that past the enhancement is kind of a screw zone.  I might have misinterpreted that.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

416 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY

NIGHT...WHILE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY RECEIVES A MODERATE

SNOWSTORM. DRY WEATHER LATER TUE INTO WED FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL

WINTER STORM AROUND THU INTO FRIDAY. FIRST ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR WILL

OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE

WEEKEND. LASTLY EXPECT NEAR RECORD COLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF

BOSTON AS A RESULT OF A STRONG COASTAL FRONT/OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 4 PM...TEMP DOWN TO 17 IN BOSTON AND STILL 36

IN MARSHFIELD. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE COASTAL FRONT!

OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE

REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES

FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

*** ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY

NIGHT WHILE THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY RECEIVES A MODERATE SNOW

EVENT ***

ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO

MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ONE THOUGH IS

DIFFERENT THEN THE PAST FEW STORMS WE HAVE SEEN. THIS STORM IS OF

A MUCH LONGER DURATION BUT WITH WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING.

TO MAKE UP FOR THE LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING...WE HAVE SEVERAL

MESOSCALE FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO RESULT IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM

FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHILE OTHER AREAS LIKELY SEE JUST A

MODERATE SNOWSTORM.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINING WITH HIGH

PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WAS ALLOWING A VERY STRONG

COASTAL FRONT TO SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY

WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH THROUGH MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A

LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW BAND ON THE COASTAL FRONT. THE MESOSCALE

MODELS HAVE BEEN PINNING THE AREA NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND

ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BOSTON/WEYMOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MA FOR THE PAST

SEVERAL CYCLES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE HEAVIEST SNOW

AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN

SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS AND

WORCESTER HILLS WITH AN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY

WHERE WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHADOWING. WILL BREAK IT DOWN A BIT

MORE IN THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS.

1) TIMING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:

STEADY SNOW WAS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND SHOULD SETUP NEAR THE I-95

CORRIDOR THIS EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. BANDS OF MODERATE TO

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL

RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND THIS

WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY AM RUSH HOUR. OUTSIDE OF THIS REGION WITH

THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...MAINLY PERIODS OF

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL

RESULT IN OTHER LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES

OF THE BERKSHIRES/WORCESTER HILLS. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS SNOW

AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CT RIVER WHERE THERE

WILL BE SOME SHADOWING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO OVER A LONG

DURATION...SO THERE WILL BE SOME SETTLING. THIS MEANS SNOW AMOUNTS

WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE FALLEN.

NONETHELESS...TOTAL ACCUMS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES OF ARE EXPECTED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RUNNING

TOTAL AND INCLUDES WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. LOCALIZED HIGHER

AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM BOSTON TO

NORTHEAST MA NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE LOWER

CT VALLEY SHADOWING AND LIMITED FORCING MAY HOLD TOTAL ACCUMS IN THE

6 TO 10 INCH RANGE. WILL DISCUSS SNOW AMOUNTS FOR CAPE/ISLANDS IN

THE NEXT SECTION.

APPEARS THAT THE STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN

MA/NORTHERN CT MONDAY EVENING...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL

LIKELY LINGER A BIT LATER. ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI ACCUM

SNOW CONTINUES WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW

SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST

MENTIONED...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT.

2) PRECIPITATION TYPE:

MODEL SOUNDINGS/THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS...WHERE

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN AT TIMES. MAY

SEE SNOW TOTALS VARIABLE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS CAPE COD.

PERHAPS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE UPPER CAPE AND A SLOPPY INCH OR

TWO ACROSS OUTER-CAPE AND NANTUCKET. ALONG THE SOUTH

COAST...APPEARS IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW BUT WHEN

PRECIP LIGHTENS UP COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET FREEZING RAIN.

3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY:

GIVEN THAT WERE NOT DEALING WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE

FORCING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS LESS THAN IN

OUR PREVIOUS STORMS. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT MESOSCALE

HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SETUP ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND PROBABLY A

COUPLE WEAKER ONE/S ALONG EAST SLOPES OF BERKS/WORCESTER HILLS. THE

PROBLEM IS ITS TOUGH TO PIN THE EXACT AREAS OF THE NARROW HEAVY SNOW

BANDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS NEAR

BOSTON/WEYMOUTH/HINGHAM AND INTO NORTHEAST MA AS THE PRIME

LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE COASTAL FRONT IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THEN

MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS

BAND ENDS UP SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT

OF THE COASTAL FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.

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