wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Although it would cause lots of misery I would love to see it verify. Has Boston ever had a high temp below zero? Probably back in 34. Its a week out and the models can't trend colder, if I were to guess it will be very cold but not what the models are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just looked at that GFS map. -39F for Portland Maine. I just can't see that kind of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Although it would cause lots of misery I would love to see it verify. Has Boston ever had a high temp below zero? Probably back in 34. Its a week out and the models can't trend colder, if I were to guess it will be very cold but not what the models are currently showing. On a couple separate occasions this winter, since the pattern evolved back to more -EPO like, the models predicted D7 historic cold... only once did one verify, and it was a mere 18 hour glancing blow of single digits and wind. It's really more of testament of modeling extremeness early, and then having to wait days and dodging perturbation to get it realized -- very lucky if a long lead uber anomaly ever comes to pass. So yeah, if you're a better .. you'd be stupid not to go with the under this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Although it would cause lots of misery I would love to see it verify. Has Boston ever had a high temp below zero? Probably back in 34. Its a week out and the models can't trend colder, if I were to guess it will be very cold but not what the models are currently showing. Boston's lowest maximum temperature (since 1872) is 2°, which was set on December 30, 1917. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 2/6/2015 6z GFS forecast a temperature of -29.0°C (-20°F) for Boston on 2/14. To put things into perspective, Boston's all-time record low temperature is -18°, which was set on February 9, 1934. Moreover, such a temperature would be just over 4.7σ below the 1981-2010 mean temperature for the 2/13-15 timeframe. Such an outcome, assuming temperatures are normally distributed over the long-term, would be a 1-in-1,000 year event. Either the GFS is off or an extraordinary event is poised to unfold. Odds strongly favor the former, though the air mass could well be the coldest of the winter and possibly for a number of winters. On Feb. 15, 1943, Boston had a daily mean of -4, on 6/-14. Norms were colder then, but how many SDs would that invoke? That all time low beat out, by one degree, the mark set about 6 weeks earleir. Cold winter! Also kind of cool (pun intended) that two of Boston's three coldest days were on 12/30, 16 yr apart. Just looked at that GFS map. -39F for Portland Maine. I just can't see that kind of cold They've done it before, the morning after the above Boston frigidity. Probably the lowest temp for a coastal location (site was at the AP, about 100 yards from saltwater) in the US until one gets north of the Aleutian Peninsula. On 2/15/43 PWM's daily mean was -17, with -2/-32, probably more than 40F BN. (16th was a whole degree "warmer", with 7/-39.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This winter, the GFS seems to print out ridiculously cold lows every run, even in the very short range (yesterday's 18z run valid this morning, for example). I would think that's a product of the enhanced resolution running wild with localized thermal variations, but maybe I just didn't pay enough attention before the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This winter, the GFS seems to print out ridiculously cold lows every run, even in the very short range (yesterday's 18z run valid this morning, for example). I would think that's a product of the enhanced resolution running wild with localized thermal variations, but maybe I just didn't pay enough attention before the upgrade. euros colder at 850 than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 IIRC awhile ago someone posted obs for BOS during the afternoon with sub-zero temps, but there was a midnight high that day above zero. I think it was either in 1917 or early 1930s .. perhaps on 12/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 euros colder at 850 than the GFS Indeed, enough to break at least a few all-time 850 mb temp records if taken literally. There's a lot of discussion across the web about surface/2m temp maps for the period in question, and it just seems a little bit like poring over model snowfall maps that you know to be ridiculous. Would certainly be great to experience that kind of cold, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 FWIW, the lowest afternoon temperature I could find for Boston was -5° on February 6, 1855. However, readings were only taken at 7 am, 2: 30 pm, and 9 pm. The 2/5 9 pm temperature was listed as 10.5°. The 2/6 7 am temperature was -6°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 FWIW, the lowest afternoon temperature I could find for Boston was -5° on February 6, 1855. However, readings were only taken at 7 am, 2: 30 pm, and 9 pm. The 2/5 9 pm temperature was listed as 10.5°. The 2/6 7 am temperature was -6°. I hope we can find a way to -7 during GW era then... Just to add to the nay-sayer mystique and ensure we are that much closer to self-imposed dystopia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On Feb. 15, 1943, Boston had a daily mean of -4, on 6/-14. Norms were colder then, but how many SDs would that invoke? 3.6 standard deviations (1931-60 norms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know such cold is impressive on a historical scale but does it invoke any damaging aspects. We know how deadly extreme heat can be but even -20 or -30 can't cause too much damage right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 IIRC awhile ago someone posted obs for BOS during the afternoon with sub-zero temps, but there was a midnight high that day above zero. I think it was either in 1917 or early 1930s .. perhaps on 12/30 IIRC, Christmas 1980 had an afternoon high right around zero in Boston after a -7 morning (with strong wind), but the 12:01 AM temp had been much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has high temps below zero even in BOS next Friday....I am mildly skeptical of that. That would take something absolutely ridiculous. Think of how hyped we get when the min is below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know such cold is impressive on a historical scale but does it invoke any damaging aspects. We know how deadly extreme heat can be but even -20 or -30 can't cause too much damage right? its been 20 -30 below many nights in NNE they seemed to have survived, this isn't South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 its been 20 -30 below many nights in NNE they seemed to have survived, this isn't South Carolina Some pipes would burst. Car batteries would be dead. A few things like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That would take something absolutely ridiculous. Think of how hyped we get when the min is below zero. you'd probably want 850 temps of -30 c or less, or 925 temps under -25 c ( for an afternoon temp at or below zero that is ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 you'd probably want 850 temps of -30 c or less, or 925 temps under -25 c ( for an afternoon temp at or below zero that is ) I'd put chances at breaking that 2F max record very low. Anything below ten would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know such cold is impressive on a historical scale but does it invoke any damaging aspects. We know how deadly extreme heat can be but even -20 or -30 can't cause too much damage right? Pretty sure my street will have its 4th water main burst in less than 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Pretty sure my street will have its 4th water main burst in less than 8 months.Don't worry...this isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is coming folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 LOL, the GFS 2m temps at night for whatever reason are way incorrect. Ironically they are too warm with these coastals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 thats insane for this area!! This is coming folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 LOL, the GFS 2m temps at night for whatever reason are way incorrect. Ironically they are too warm with these coastals too. idk...I think widespread -40s in SNE looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 idk...I think widespread -40s in SNE looks legit. What ridiculous output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 why is it so bad! you would think they could find a way to adjust it either way its going to be real cold friday What ridiculous output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I will say Sat AM is as far out as MEX guidance goes and it is ridiculously cold in many spots despite the heavy climo influence. BML's min is 27F below climo right now. I can't remember the last time I saw it that extreme at d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Take those #s up up up or is it down down down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Take those #s up up up or is it down down down They're 2m temps so factor in radiational cooling and you have -60F in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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