TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Truthfully, I'm not all that excited about this event down this way. It appears we would want to gamble with the coastal, which doesn't want to cooperate as it looks now. Looks like the best stuff is north of here anyway. A lot going on, there will be some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Will, did you say that RGEM sided more w the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Definitely a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Will is there any thing you see, that makes you think nam could be on to something and that ridge may indeed by flat Too early to tell...all the important pieces are in the Pacific right now...there's another big shortwave behind the stuff that causes the storm that is important too as it turns into a decent storm off the west coast and pumps the ridge up...the NAM has this weaker. You would naturally trust the global models to handle that feature better given it is out of the NAM's domain...but there is no guarantees the globals have it right either. But all else equal, you would favor them...and given all the unknowns currently, that is the way I'd lean. This is typically where the Euro should really excel with it's data assimilation scheme. We'll see how it performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I hope some still have finger nails left by tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Harv is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Too early to tell...all the important pieces are in the Pacific right now...there's another big shortwave behind the stuff that causes the storm that is important too as it turns into a decent storm off the west coast and pumps the ridge up...the NAM has this weaker. You would naturally trust the global models to handle that feature better given it is out of the NAM's domain...but there is no guarantees the globals have it right either. But all else equal, you would favor them...and given all the unknowns currently, that is the way I'd lean. This is typically where the Euro should really excel with it's data assimilation scheme. We'll see how it performs. This complex system should be a good test for the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This complex system should be a good test for the new GFS. GFS and Euro aren't very far apart right now, which gives more confidence to the globals. Euro was a bit more consolidated with the Monday part of the system, but both are pretty similar with the overrunning and location of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS and Euro aren't very far apart right now, which gives more confidence to the globals. Euro was a bit more consolidated with the Monday part of the system, but both are pretty similar with the overrunning and location of the boundaryDid you think the RGEM sided more with the NAM? Either way, GFS and EURO shaking hands is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not the right thread but a nice follow up wave on thurs next week that has been showing up on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Did you think the RGEM sided more with the NAM? Either way, GFS and EURO shaking hands is great No, it had a more tilted height field I thought like the global models...but the RGEM isn't very useful yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Canadian started off cooler, but got a bit warmer at 00z, however the s/w for Monday looked better at 00z as compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Cool. Thanks. I'm inclined to go GFS/EURO. If it stands pat at 00z, I'm all in.....as awe inspiring as this getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Canadian started off cooler, but got a bit warmer at 00z, however the s/w for Monday looked better at 00z as compared to 12z. Its definitely south with the overrunning prior to Monday. But then it looke dlike it went a shade warmer for the coastal part...but it's still kind of disorganzied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ukie looks like the firat part of overrunning is up in CNE. RUT-CON-PSM area. Does have lighter snows south to the MA/CT border and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks like the n trend on the overrunnig has haulted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Its definitely south with the overrunning prior to Monday. But then it looke dlike it went a shade warmer for the coastal part...but it's still kind of disorganzied. Yeah good to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 UK dancing btwn extremes, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ukie looks pretty damned good for the main part on Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 UK dancing btwn extremes, as usual Overall things have stabilized I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 does ukie turn up the coast for the main event or drift east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 WPC says completely ignore the NAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SATAMPLIFYING EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM AMPLIFIES THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PRAIRIEPROVINCES OF CANADA SATURDAY AS IT IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE MEANRIDGE, WHICH IS IMPLAUSIBLE. THIS LEADS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGHWITH HEIGHTS 60+ METERS DEEPER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS ITTRAVELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY -- ITS USUAL BIAS-- WHICH LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW SOLUTION FROM THEGREAT LAKES EASTWARD FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THAT LIES COMPLETELYOUTSIDE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE ISPREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks like the n trend on the overrunnig has haulted Yea only the garbage guidance hasn't stopped, so I feel slightly better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 does ukie turn up the coast for the main event or drift east? It's very weak and goes out east of NJ. The precip maps don't go out that far. It did develop after hr 96, but looked well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Only goes to 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yea, things seems to be coming into focus. Gfs/ec blend verifies, and alot of us need to start entertaining the notion of dethroning 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I didn't get a chance at the 72 hr progg, but that's dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM gets the 850mb line up to Boston beginning at 84 hr and remaining there at least through 102 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GGEM gets the 850mb line up to Boston beginning at 84 hr and remaining there at least through 102 hr. 80%+ of the precip has fallen before that though for that region, just probably some sprinkles or light drizzle at that point. Damage has been done with warning level snows prior to that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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