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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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78. If they measured in 78 like they do today.... much different storms, heavier, wetter, and it wasn't a competition to measure the most snow back then..... 36" in January, 27.2 for the blizzard. 67 was close too from all that I've seen and heard.

this is a 16 day period with minimal melting 78 had if taken max 65 in two storms in 17 days but massive melting in between,after tonight Boston blows that away too
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Box 7pm:

 

Near term /through Monday/...

7 PM update...

Light to moderate snow has overspread much of the region early this evening. Expect snow to quickly accumulate especially north
and west of the coastal front and in higher terrain as temperatures are in the teens. Coastal front has set up southward then what guidance was suggesting so have altered temperatures and dews to account for this shift. Hi-res guidance does show this front
beginning a west trend back towards I-95 between 9-12z so will have to monitor this closely.
.

.

Otherwise forecast remains on track for the second half of this event. Keep in mind that the snow totals do account for what has
already fallen over the past 24 hours.

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Slowed just past Scituate on velocity

 

23z HRRR adjusting east... looks like western-most advance of front is just west of Hull peninsula

 

26.7 and dropping.  Models are too far west with the CF which is what I suspected all along.  Looking at the 18z RGEM it also shoved it a bit SE.

 

Looks like it's still tickling ESE just a smidge but slowing for sure.

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Box 7pm:

 

Near term /through Monday/...

7 PM update...

Light to moderate snow has overspread much of the region early this evening. Expect snow to quickly accumulate especially north

and west of the coastal front and in higher terrain as temperatures are in the teens. Coastal front has set up southward then what guidance was suggesting so have altered temperatures and dews to account for this shift. Hi-res guidance does show this front

beginning a west trend back towards I-95 between 9-12z so will have to monitor this closely.

.

.

Otherwise forecast remains on track for the second half of this event. Keep in mind that the snow totals do account for what has

already fallen over the past 24 hours.

 

Interesting to me that this was a mutli-run model struggle when it seemed pretty clear given the depth of the cold air?

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Snow picking up.

 

Makes sense. Dual-pol picking up an area of perhaps pristine dendritic growth moving into the BOS area.

 

Despite reflecitivities looking fairly benign, ZDR is much above what you'd expect for snowflakes and CC is somewhat lower than what you'd expect for uniform ptype. Dendrites will fall flat, so their horizontal axis is much large than the vertical (high ZDR), less is known about why CC is lowered in these regions though.

 

post-44-0-81588900-1423442559_thumb.png

 

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Can really see the coastal front tucking east in PYM county even on the regular radar (precip along it).   It's not moving much further north off Cape Anne, we're just seeing winds back west from what they were inland of the coast in SE MA.

Pretty impressive cold push thus far.  We should see a tick back W as the coastal gets going and we start getting some good WAA ahead of it.

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Pretty impressive cold push thus far.  We should see a tick back W as the coastal gets going and we start getting some good WAA ahead of it.

 

It is, probably about reaching the max push down right now, will at least stall and probably wobble west a bit.  I don't think it'll get as far as modeled even at 18z though, suspect we'll see a decent correction with these 0z models.

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It is, probably about reaching the max push down right now, will at least stall and probably wobble west a bit.  I don't think it'll get as far as modeled even at 18z though, suspect we'll see a decent correction with these 0z models.

 

At this point I'm just looking at the RAP/HRRR.  Maybe I'll peek at the NAM/GFS.  One thing I did notice it the Euro looked a bit too warm when compared to other guidance.  Kind of strange given that the GFS is usually the warm one.

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Can really see the coastal front tucking east in PYM county even on the regular radar (precip along it).   It's not moving much further north off Cape Anne, we're just seeing winds back west from what they were inland of the coast in SE MA.

 

You have the real cold boundary in blue, as you say tucking east through Plymouth Co. The original boundary 1 Scott talked about sort of washing out to the east of that (notice the distance between the two has really shrunk). And there is a third boundary if you loop base velocity that is moving fairly quickly westward over the waters.

 

post-44-0-54183100-1423443815_thumb.png

 

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You have the real cold boundary in blue, as you say tucking east through Plymouth Co. The original boundary 1 Scott talked about sort of washing out to the east of that (notice the distance between the two has really shrunk). And there is a third boundary if you loop base velocity that is moving fairly quickly westward over the waters.

 

attachicon.giftbos1.png

 

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if the cold can hang tough just inland a bit as the overall CF rotates west towards the coast up by Boston.

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Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if the cold can hang tough just inland a bit as the overall CF rotates west towards the coast up by Boston.

 

More or less going N/S like the HRRR indicated earlier. Now the HRRR also says that about 04z is the coldest that eastern Mass gets before it starts drifting back to the west. We'll see soon enough if that's correct.

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