SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm not in broadcast media or NWS so I don't know their perspective on it, but to speak from the other side of the table so to speak(Social media/alternative forecasting(when compared to media/nws which I see as "mainstream"). I think a lot of what is causing the early predictions/forecasts is that the public is now more aware of what's going on with the weather and with the models. Even back when I started in 2012, the public knew very little about how forecasting "worked", they just looked at what the snow totals were and called it a day. For that reason, because there was no competition, forecasters generally could wait until they had relatively high confidence to go into exact numbers, since they were going to be the "source" for whatever was coming from the mysterious process known as forecasting. Now, you have models being shown on TV all the time, hundreds of social media sites(Some legitimate, some simply to cause hype) that show the models and scenarios to any average Joe with a Facebook account, and models much more freely available to the general public, and as a result, there's a lot more awareness of what the models are showing and it forces forecasters to touch on them or risk being made irrelevant for whoever is mentioning the "next big thing" already. The public wants instant gratification and they want it now, and god damnit if you won't give it to them because someone else will whose desperate to make a name for themselves in this field and who cares if they're right. Before, when no one really knew what the "black box" that was the models was showing, there was a lot less pressure to explain their solutions and make a forecast at that range where models are so inaccurate still. As a result, you've got folks now forced to make predictions further ahead of time so that you don't lose your readers/viewers and with them any revenue you might be making(ad dollars, private clients, etc.). As much as we wish this business was only about accuracy, you've got to make money to stay in business and if you aren't getting viewers/readers, you're going to be broke unless the few that remain are paying substantially more. NWS is sort of an interesting case in that it doesn't really rely on any source of revenue from it's readers and so it theoretically would have the liberty to wait until they had more confidence/were closer in, but I see it as you don't want to be the only one that's not saying something because then if you aren't forecasting something, people will run with whoever is even if it's clearly wrong and then by the time you come out with the more accurate forecast, it's too late. Personally, our policy has always been first call 24-48 hours before start time and final call 6-18 hours before start time and we haven't changed that as of yet, but we're definitely getting more people wanting to know what's going on earlier and earlier because of something that they heard on the news/facebook/etc(We've already got people talking about a big one for this weekend). and it almost forces us to mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Some temperature differential: Brewster on the cape is 35 while Boston is 19! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMPhysicsTeacher Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You'll be well west of the CF in Dracut. I don't see it penetrating too far inland N of BOS. Probably pegged right along the coastline. Strange recordings of wind intensity and direction out in Boston Harbor north. The harbor and northern cape cod bay are at ENE while Isle of Shoals and UNH are NE. I could see that hitting within 5 miles of Cape Ann's coastline, while maybe down through the Braintree split is the other setup for the CF. The only way the CF comes out to me in Dracut is with decent shifts in wind now that I look at it. Finally, these totals according to BOX must be due to a very high ratio--I just can't see another 10-14 out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Cantore coming to town. Jim Cantore @JimCantore 2h2 hours ago Leaving this awful day in #Atlanta for what could be the next 8 days in #Boston for what could be 3 storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Danbury is reporting moderate snow at this hour with that narrow band centered right over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Danbury is reporting moderate snow at this hour with that narrow band centered right over them.Just started here in Woodbury. Little angel dust flakes, with a heavy training band west all the way to Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What weenies. Any intelligent person might say we're closed tomorrow and will make an assessment regarding Tuesday when we have more knowledge of what the situation will be tomorrow. The problem is the snow they already have and no where to put it. Any decent snowfall is going to cause huge problems with snow removal until the old snow melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The last couple of events I personally have had an issues with some of our maps. It's like we're forecasting the maximum amounts, trying to make sure all snow reports fall at or below our values. Rather than forecasting the most likely and mentioning isolated higher amounts. We talk about lollis on this board for a reason, because they are few and far between and the vast majority of people won't see those totals. It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy. I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass. I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days. Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter. A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd. I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow. I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not. With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status. Just further into the woods, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just started here in Woodbury. Little angel dust flakes, with a heavy training band west all the way to Scranton. I know whose snow reports I'm not trusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I know whose snow reports I'm not trusting... lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy. I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass. I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days. Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter. A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd. I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow. I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not. With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status. Just further into the woods, lol. I am expecting more than 4" in 12 hours? I was under the impression if was closer to 6" in 12? Not heavy snow but still impactful. Mayor in Boston is operating under assumption of 24" based on presser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It seems like lately because of the impacts of prior storms, and media hype, that just large totals are thrown out now like candy. I'm still a little surprised at the Winter Storm Warnings outside of some certain select spots like Mass. I mean, we've had a bunch of events over the years in CNE/NNE where you get a total of 8-12" or 10-16" over the course of like 3 days. Heck that's like climo up here in the heart of winter. A winter storm warning with no more than 4" expected in any 12-hour period seems odd. I bet J.Spin or I could come up with a page long list of dates where 72 hours produced over 8" of snow. I'd like to take more pride that New Englanders can handle a long duration light snow event, whether there's 20"+ on the ground or not. With that said, I've become so oblivious to what its like living near a real urban area with snow, that I can't really judge. Up here, they just keep blading the snow further into the woods or fields, and there's really no point where a lot of NNE gets to "where to put it all" status. Just further into the woods, lol. There is a decision maker element to it too. It is almost more impactful to have plow operators clearing snow constantly for 48 hours than for 10 inches to fall in 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah radar filled in nicely last half hour...right on queue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 There is a decision maker element to it too. It is almost more impactful to have plow operators clearing snow constantly for 48 hours than for 10 inches to fall in 10 hours. It just seems like it happens a lot though is my point and we don't get warnings. Maybe it's the meso-scale snow we get here, but days and days of plowing several inches a day isn't all that uncommon. I guess I was wondering why would this be any different from any of our "snowy" patterns where you get plowed each morning from 3-4" for 4 days straight from a series of weak disturbances moving over the mountains of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It just seems like it happens a lot though is my point and we don't get warnings. Maybe it's the meso-scale snow we get here, but days and days of plowing several inches a day isn't all that uncommon. I guess I was wondering why would this be any different from any of our "snowy" patterns where you get plowed each morning from 3-4" for 4 days straight from a series of weak disturbances moving over the mountains of NNE. I think what complicates this is finding a true break in the precip. Sure it hasn't always been accumulating, but it's been snowing at GYX since this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 3". Looks like gyx slid the higher totals south. Now 6-8" progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX updated again as of 353 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I know whose snow reports I'm not trusting...Um, I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think what complicates this is finding a true break in the precip. Sure it hasn't always been accumulating, but it's been snowing at GYX since this time yesterday. Chris - you guys finding the SREF any more useful this season? Seen a lot of discussion about it from mets on the internet especially during after the NYC blizzard debacle but I have had limited if any success using it here in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX updated again as of 353bumpidity for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Um, I don't get it.angel dust is drug slang for pcp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Um, I don't get it. you said angel dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Um, I don't get it. Angel dust, PCP. Not commenting on your actual snow measuring abilities or anything. Just point out that this is your snow measurement and this is your snow measurement on drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Chris - you guys finding the SREF any more useful this season? Seen a lot of discussion about it from mets on the internet especially during after the NYC blizzard debacle but I have had limited if any success using it here in the past. Mainly for trends. Do snow/QPF amounts tick up or down, do PoP for certain ptypes increase from one run to the next, etc. In truth that's how I use it for convective weather too. Not the absolute values, but the trends in products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX updated again as of 353 Just me, but wouldn't this be more valuable if it just included tonight & tomorrow? I think the reason for the public confusion over this storm was treating the Saturday snow as the same event as these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Some of the hires models are actually showing a bit of a valley jackpot down here. Pretty unusual but possible. No major upslope/downslope component around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 angel dust is drug slang for pcpDuh, guys. I was pretending to be on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Mainly for trends. Do snow/QPF amounts tick up or down, do PoP for certain ptypes increase from one run to the next, etc. In truth that's how I use it for convective weather too. Not the absolute values, but the trends in products. Yeah I find it more useful in the summer for convection to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 gfs also looks great from here west the by boston mod snow now getting hard to see across the field behind my house Some of the hires models are actually showing a bit of a valley jackpot down here. Pretty unusual but possible. No major upslope/downslope component around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 gfs also has less precip in far western areas just like those hi res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.