Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Here's the Euro additional QPF after 18Z today...

 

0.50"

N: RUT-LEB-LCI-PWM

S: BDL-IJD-PVD-FMH

 

0.25" is along LI on the south end...CYSC toward EPO on the north end.

 

0.75" is just offshore Cape Ann and near PVC. So most of us are in that 0.50-0.70" range. This isn't the high res EC though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rgem started the trend of cutting back in ct, today's runs confirm it. Still a decent event.

 

Yeah I'm looking forward to it. A positive snow depth gain here. Thinking an additional 4-6 here but we'll see. 

 

Pretty awesome model agreement with one glaring exception - the GFS is really wildly bullish. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the Euro additional QPF after 18Z today...

 

0.50"

N: RUT-LEB-LCI-PWM

S: BDL-IJD-PVD-FMH

 

0.25" is along LI on the south end...CYSC toward EPO on the north end.

 

0.75" is just offshore Cape Ann and near PVC. So most of us are in that 0.50-0.70" range. This isn't the high res EC though.

Hi-res Euro agrees but has a max of .7-1" inside of an arc roughly halfway between 495 and 128.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that those looking for widespread foot plus totals will be disappointed and the event will be a bust in that regard. Still though, looks excellent for a warning level snowfall for most of the region which all should be happy with.

Yea, it's snow...net gain. Winter continues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean really no question GYX seemed some of "most off" to me yesterday with Box right behind them...wrt to the breadth of those maps. But I would guess these maps are still sorta experimental in nature?

 

The thing with GYX was they were Meh on the event on AFD's from the get go , then when I saw the map with a weaker coastal I was scratching my head double time. At least Box area has some Ocean enhancement and CF

 

Gone are the days where WFOs can really disagree with each other. You're highly unlikely to ever see one office differ too much across the border from their neighbors. There is a lot of effort being put in right now to making the larger scale regional maps seamless across CWA borders.

 

In that sense these maps are still experimental, because we may see them change regarding interpolation schemes.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that those looking for widespread foot plus totals will be disappointed and the event will be a bust in that regard. Still though, looks excellent for a warning level snowfall for most of the region which all should be happy with.

You will be among the 12+ folks I think. But it may not seem like it with the incremental nature of this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You will be among the 12+ folks I think. But it may not seem like it with the incremental nature of this.

I think the public is thoroughly confused at this point. I've seen a lot of social media comments about where is this large winter storm, when will it start to dump and all that.

I've had over 6" since Friday night and we've already got the low end of BTV's 6-12" forecast, but people are still wondering "where's the storm?"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the public is thoroughly confused at this point. I've seen a lot of social media comments about where is this large winter storm, when will it start to dump and all that.

I've had over 6" since Friday night and we've already got the low end of BTV's 6-12" forecast, but people are still wondering "where's the storm?"

I will agree on that those 18-24 maps scared a lot of peeps
Link to comment
Share on other sites

kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way

 

In every bag of popcorn, some kernels won't pop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way

Still the event hasn't changed that much imo.

 

Lets let the precip move into this pm and see what shakes out tonight.

 

I love talking about model trends and things of that nature, but you can't spike the football on big totals prior and ditto to low totals IMO either. Ya  I mean I never thought 1.2 QPF where you are had a chance in hell of happening so i'm not surprised it cut back.

 

Ditto Gyx/Box maps if peeps expected those totals then yes they will prob be disappointed but man there is a lot to go with this thing, ramps up next few hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BOX cut back totals to more like what they were yesterday, but could just be subtracting off what already fell. StormTotalSnowRange.png

It's total snow, so including what already fell. Not a bad map. 

 

This storm isn't that radically different for most of us than what it was 12 hours ago. It's going to snow, and for a lot of us it's going to snow a lot. The feel of this thread is as if there is a storm cancel, I don't understand

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...