Max Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS keeps humming its own tune in terms of QPF output. I really don't know if I can trust it because it kind of is on its own right now, but who knows maybe this is the type of setup it can excel in. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 upgrade ftw lol GFS keeps humming its own tune in terms of QPF output. I really don't know if I can trust it because it kind of is on its own right now, but who knows maybe this is the type of setup it can excel in. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Wow...GFS is impressive right to the coast. Seems a little overdone, but the trends today have been decent. I've been down on this event from the beginning for the shoreline, but things are looking up for a solid 3-5" event. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Agreed, doesn't look impressive at all. High bust potential for many areas. It's the duration, not the intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Wow...GFS is impressive right to the coast. Seems a little overdone, but the trends today have been decent. I've been down on this event from the beginning for the shoreline, but things are looking up for a solid 3-5" event. Sent from my iPhone Wow...GFS is impressive right to the coast. Seems a little overdone, but the trends today have been decent. I've been down on this event from the beginning for the shoreline, but things are looking up for a solid 3-5" event. Sent from my iPhone I can see you pulling off 4-5. For an area that has a climo of like 28 in. per year this should all be like gravy to you my friend with us still being in the first half of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 RGEM looks like a general 5-10" event through 00z Tuesday for interior SNE. Small death band NE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GEM is pretty ugly with the subsidence and shadow in my area. 6-8 inches here meanwhile the Berks are 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GGEM cut back on QPF quite a bit it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm starting to lean more towards an 8-9 inch snowfall here as much as I would like a 12-14 I just see too many signals with shadowing, poor snow growth etc,.but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, 12z for comparison. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Does anyone have a clue of what kind of ratios we can be thinking about as we get into the meat and potatoes portion of the storm. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm starting to lean more towards an 8-9 inch snowfall here as much as I would like a 12-14 I just see too many signals with shadowing, poor snow growth etc,.but we'll see. I'm only expecting 4"-8" for BDL and my area north of them south of Springfield along the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just noise......cut back from 1.6" QPF to 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just noise......cut back from 1.6" QPF to 1.2" It cut QPF by >25% in a lot of areas, I'm not so sure I'd call that noise especially this close in. It's not just QPF though, whole event looks weaker and less impressive. Ukie is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just noise......cut back from 1.6" QPF to 1.2" More than noise that's a pretty dramatic shift downwards bell to bell. Will see how it plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm only expecting 4"-8" for BDL and my area north of them south of Springfield along the border. Man that's low. Hope you're wrong. 6-10 would be the lowest range I would find acceptable given all the time invested and honestly anything under 9-10 would be dissapointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Cut it by 25% here. From 1.6" to 1.2" If you look at the couple runs prior to 12z, I think it was closer to the 1.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GEM has not had a good handle on this storm for the last 3 days now. The GFS has also been out there, but at least consistent for several days now. I think a blend of the Euro/GFS/UKMET/RGEM is the way to go before we start looking that the short range models like the HRRR going forward. Interested to see what tonights Euro brings - its been consistently warmer and farther north of the GFS over the last few runs, in relation to where the mixing line locates itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 RGEM cut back similarly outside of max areas NAM/GFS support Box map, GGEM/RGEM say it needs to be cut back 2/3 except in max band Essex-Suffolk-Norfolk cos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Thats a pretty significant decrease, I dont think thats really noise. Some places in CT had the qpf basically sliced in half... Or just about anyway. Obviously less dramatic in some places... But that is the most notable area of decrease This close to the event.... Thats a pretty big flag to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 More than noise that's a pretty dramatic shift downwards bell to bell. Will see how it plays out... More important for other areas with less. You can't win in this place.....either people eat me alive for complaining, or I get called out for not complaining. I don't think 1.6" down to 1.2" is a big deal. Just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 RGEM cut back similarly outside of max areas NAM/GFS support Box map, GGEM/RGEM say it needs to be cut back 2/3 except in max band Essex-Suffolk-Norfolk cos Agreed if this is a real trend here tonight. A lot of those really high totals will need to be slashed aside of the "band" which I still question as we may see this trend colder which would continue to "weaken" the dynamics so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Thats a pretty significant decrease, I dont think thats really noise. Some places in CT had the qpf basically sliced in half... Or just about anyway. This close to the event.... Thats a pretty big flag to me I'm just talking about here. I didn't even look elsewhere. Look, I already said if you aren't in the band, you're SOL....and people ran the train on me for saying so. I just don't think this changes much here in ne MA...you're either in it, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GEM is pretty ugly with the subsidence and shadow in my area. 6-8 inches here meanwhile the Berks are 12-18. That's par for the course in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, 12z for comparison. Ouch. That's not really comparable. What about what has fallen between 12z today and 00z? There should be less on that current map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This just confirms what I already said. This event sucks outside of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm suppose to get 2"-4" by 10am Sunday based off the GFS. If I do I'll believe its output. If I get nothing at all. Then even 4"-8" might be bullish for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm just talking about here. I didn't even look elsewhere. Look, I already said if you aren't in the band, you're SOL....and people ran the train on me for saying so. I just don't think this changes much here in ne MA...you're either in it, or not. Its definitely more dramatic in places like CT. Its becoming increasingly clear this isn't going to be widespread. How big that band ends up being is the million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Its probably going to look worse and worse for most of the area.......models are going to realize that this is all driven by mesoscale proccesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Uncle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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