CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I wasn't trying to debbie lol I was just pointing out something I noticed when I was looking at BUFKIT earlier. I'm not really worried about how much snow I get or don't get. You were right on. Outside of the areas that get a big mesoscale assist I have been noticing the same thing since Thursday on BUFKIT soundings. A number of caution flags including bad snow growth, funky dry layers, and areas of strong mesoscale subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Here's one of several reasons(Look at the maps from the media for the others) that people have potentially unrealistic expectations with this one. It's hard to see a map like this and not get excited even when you know the potential drawbacks, it's just how the human mind works... Here was our final map, didn't have any part in making it but I think overall the guys did a good job. Highest bust potential is along the south coast I think in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 this is a nice event for all and there might be another storm at the end of the week and after the stretch we had no one should complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 From what Bostonwx is saying, it's a toaster bath here. Inside 495 does well 15+.. but yeah inside 128 and north/south shore have the greatest shot at 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 From what Bostonwx is saying, it's a toaster bath here. I dunno Ray. That could be the case. But to pin down an exhaust slot within 5-10 miles 36 hours out is asking a lot IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm in Essex County, but I'm also fairly close to Ray, so I'm just totally confused at this point. Sounds like we could get 6" or 26" or somewhere in between based on the posts around here. I also don't care if I jackpot or not. I'm just always excited to watch it snow. I'm more interested in how things play out so I can deal with real world stuff, like having employees come to work, kids go to school, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lol pretty obvious whose not in the game full on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This jackpot will shift around but I do agree that people just NW of wherever this sets up (And SE for that matter) will get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The BOX map could end up close, though I personally would go lower...but the fact it is over like 60 hours and there's a fluff factor likely is also going to play into the "expectations game"...like I said before, I can see many screaming bust if they get 11" of snow that adds 5" of depth over 60 hours....and then someone will have to remind them they got nearly a foot of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I would be happy with another 6-10" down here . We could use a refresh on the snow pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 this is a nice event for all and there might be another storm at the end of the week and after the stretch we had no one should complainEnjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 If you aren't in the death band, this event will suck. Ive been saying that. That is ehy Im so worried....this look like I may be just on the oitside looking in I don't find the RPM's depiction of a narrow death band very realistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yep. It's going to be a nice event if you keep expectations pretty realistic. I was out skiing today most of the day, so I haven't been in here, but just reading the past 3-4 pages, it seems like many are expecting a pretty hefty swath of 12"+...and even much higher than that. It's not going to look like that I don't think. They'll be some localized jackpots, but anyone actually "expecting" to be in it will probably walk from this storm with disappointment. Maybe Essex county MA has reason to expect 15" BOX agreed about Essex but had that 18+24 deep into Middlesex and models continue to show inside 128 might do well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The RPM sucks hard. I'll sleep through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm expecting at least 10 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I wasn't trying to debbie lol I was just pointing out something I noticed when I was looking at BUFKIT earlier. I'm not really worried about how much snow I get or don't get. Yours was a legit question, the debbies was referring to many of the other bridge jumper comments that have floated around in the last few hours. I could very well see fits and starts type snowfall up here on the northern edge of things as dry air eats away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't find the RPM's depiction of a narrow death band very realistic... Can you think of any events that had that sharp a gradient to that extreme from a cf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This jackpot will shift around but I do agree that people just NW of wherever this sets up (And SE for that matter) will get screwed. The rpm has ticked south and east a bit, purples now cover much of se ma. That heaviest band is also tucking into the areas I think will get jacked ....Norwood, Foxboro, Sharon Easton etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Can you think of any events that had that sharp a gradient to that extreme from a cf? You should see the 4km version..... It only goes out to 51 hours tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't find the RPM's depiction of a narrow death band very realistic...We'll see....it almost looked like a LE band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This jackpot will shift around but I do agree that people just NW of wherever this sets up (And SE for that matter) will get screwed. Shut it down. Generally, it looks pretty far south though with the placement of everything which would benefit those on the fringe on the south coast/cape at the expense of PF and the picnic tables(Although I'm sure they'll get their way to 15"+ off of 40:1 fluff and upslope ). Interested to see if the RGEM shifts south at all considering it was one of the furthest south models already at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The RPM sucks hard. I'll sleep through it.At what point would it not suck for you? 15"? 20"?I would be happy with 8" from this, expecting a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Can you think of any events that had that sharp a gradient to that extreme from a cf? No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here. Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here. Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours. Yeah especially with the CF waffling throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0z Hi Res NAM almost copy paste from Box map 14-20+ Essex to Suffolk to Norfolk counties 10+ south of Plymouth - northern RI - Worcester - SNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 No....Dec '03 was kind of close, but different setup. That had some largescale synoptic forcing not really prevelant here. Theere will def be CF enhancement, there's no doubt, but it's probably not going to be in a 5 mile wide band for 40 consecutive hours. Yeah the RPM is too extreme - though these events that have fairly meh synoptic forcing wind up producing some really funky gradients and features. We know we have the CF in eastern areas... and likely a nice zone of enhancement in the ORH Hills and Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just for gradient fetishes 8/10 - 20/24 over like 8 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Lol, plenty of time to make an adjustment of distance that small. Nowcast, watch the radar and sweat it out.I'm sweating. Notice the hole. Radar is blossoming everywhere yet is drying up over my head. Yeah I think most will be disappointed. It's a fairly unimpressive storm and while some areas are going to get smoked (it's pretty obvious where those areas will be) there are a lot of red flags for other locales. Yup. Red flag here I think. Not looking for a jack, just hoping I don't get jack (like the "blizzard" that gave me a whopping 5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 not sure why more posters didn't enter some numbers in the contest. Don S even posted his in there. It takes 2 mins Snowing nicely in Melrose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 not sure why more posters didn't enter some numbers in the contest. Don S even posted his in there. It takes 2 mins Snowing nicely in Melrose Yeah, I was surprised at how low the participation was. You'd think that with all the yapping some do about forecasts and predictions they'd want to make their own, but guess not. If you want to give it a try: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45639-long-duration-overrunningcoastal-forecast-contest/. I'll give you until Midnight before it's a late entry, anyone who has submitted can go back and edit their entries if they like as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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