NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm screwed.24" Woburn center. 12" Wilmington screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 24" Woburn center. 12" Wilmington screwed? It's worse verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 NAM looks better all around for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You know If there is one thing I have always loved to do since being a little kid, is draw national maps, include state borders and then pin capitals on the maps where they belong. Now related to this group, I try to know exactly where every town is on the map to the nearest nuance and it is why I sometimes ask posters where they are (even within a town) and elevation. I am not that strong with the meteorology as other posters but I try to add something whether it is accurately observing now casting trends to the city or just interpreting model graphics and radar with an awareness of where exactly I am and where I am looking at exactly. I have pretty much googled the towns of everyone on this board and could now place them on a map lol, and in the bigger towns I need to know what part they are in (and have) This set up is going to have very sharp local cut offs and will be giving some fits and others celebrating and man is that coastal front going to be exciting to watch set up. The upslope in the W Ma area will mostly fall where we have zero posters on this board. I don't know the town where Wxmanmitch bought his property except for him saying it was around 2300' just over the VT border. My guess is his lot gets crushed. Yeah, I've also spent some time learning NE geography since I joined the boards and I'm fascinated by the snow holes and snow jack pots. Good topic for a separate thread come the summer doldrums. The local cutoffs around here will be over short distances. I'll only b**ch is I'm under 10" total for the three days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm screwed. no tick, more widespread with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's worse verbatim.Playing with fire. I think we'll all be pretty happy. Can't wait to see that map though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I swear I almost wrote that but didn't want to get into it with some ball blisters. A lot of debbies around here lately. I am looking forward to adding to the drifts that are already over shoulder height here at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm screwed. Lol, plenty of time to make an adjustment of distance that small. Nowcast, watch the radar and sweat it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 A lot of debbies around here lately. I am looking forward to adding to the drifts that are already over shoulder height here at the office. I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Upton should add the southern zones into a watch. If it were box forecasting there would be watches as the box map posted on FB has 4-8" for the shore, and 8-12 about 20 mi inland. Well see what 0Z brings any slight shift colder and watches are getting expanded or just all warnings for CT Being in a watch doesn't really make a difference - won't change the amount of snow you wind up getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 24" Woburn center. 12" Wilmington screwed?Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 no tick, more widespread with QPFFrom what Bostonwx is saying, it's a toaster bath here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning. Yeah I think most will be disappointed. It's a fairly unimpressive storm and while some areas are going to get smoked (it's pretty obvious where those areas will be) there are a lot of red flags for other locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'll be happy with a foot total over tomorrow-Tuesday, anything less then that and it's a bust IMO. Would forecast somewhere in the 16-18" range for BOS but if it ends up as a foot, cool, still a net gain and a nice wintry appeal overall. Below that is when you get into underperforming territory and it starts to sting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning. Big event coming up for the jackpot fetish crowd. Without strong dynamics in the mid levels to work with, we aren't getting an evenly distributed snowfall out of this. That's why the NWS forecast maps are a bit of broad brush at this point. Too far out to get detailed, but too close in not to issue a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 From what Bostonwx is saying, it's a toaster bath here. Whateve it's just 1 model. It will shift around on the 3z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm actually on the bust train for the low end amounts now. Models keep cutting back QPF for many spots other than near the CF. I'm pretty much thinking only E. MA does well in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning. I'll be ecstatic to add 5" of depth with 2-3 straight days of winter bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Too much worrying. No one enjoys events anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning.I think its going to be like this just about everwhere except for the circle jerk band and Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the expectations have gotten too high in this event...there's going to be some people screaming bust if they get 11-12" of fluff that increases the depth by 5" by Tuesday morning. I don't think the Box map helped. I am very excited for my locale but it seems the Coastal trended in a poor direction for hopes of any widespread 15'+ totals to verify, correct me please if I am wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think Upton has approached this one well. Wait for 0z before you expand and/or upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Starting to see visibilities drop to 2SM or less to the west now. RAP says congrats N of the Pike crowd for freshies by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 NAM is very interesting still with the coastal storm on Monday, it tries to get going, but still too far southeast with the heavier precip once it gets offshore and the overrunning is over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Too much worrying. No one enjoys events anymore. Micro analyzing can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I wasn't trying to debbie lol I was just pointing out something I noticed when I was looking at BUFKIT earlier. I'm not really worried about how much snow I get or don't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah I think most will be disappointed. It's a fairly unimpressive storm and while some areas are going to get smoked (it's pretty obvious where those areas will be) there are a lot of red flags for other locales. Big event coming up for the jackpot fetish crowd. Without strong dynamics in the mid levels to work with, we aren't getting an evenly distributed snowfall out of this. That's why the NWS forecast maps are a bit of broad brush at this point. Too far out to get detailed, but too close in not to issue a map. Yep. It's going to be a nice event if you keep expectations pretty realistic. I was out skiing today most of the day, so I haven't been in here, but just reading the past 3-4 pages, it seems like many are expecting a pretty hefty swath of 12"+...and even much higher than that. It's not going to look like that I don't think. They'll be some localized jackpots, but anyone actually "expecting" to be in it will probably walk from this storm with disappointment. Maybe Essex county MA has reason to expect 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Too much worrying. No one enjoys events anymore. Its not that bad, ppl will enjoy it plenty. Some PPl post there fears as a sort of therapy lol. Others don't like when people discuss things that may limit upside in the storm, because it's "winter enjoyment time" and there is no room for the +, AND the -'s it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm actually on the bust train for the low end amounts now. Models keep cutting back QPF for many spots other than near the CF. I'm pretty much thinking only E. MA does well in this setup. Lots of model QPF hugging leading up to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Too much worrying. No one enjoys events anymore. I pay attention at the end when it matters it's more enjoyable. Fact is its a 72 hour event for some. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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