moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm confused then. How far from the Berkshire crest are you...ie when does water start flowing west and not east into the CT River Valley? Great question. We're in the Deerfield watershed here, which starts up by Stratton and runs into the CT down in Deerfield, MA. Here's the description listed in Wikipedia (which has as much credibility as a NAM run). Geologically, the Berkshires are bordered on the west by the Taconic Mountains, the marble valleys of the Hoosic River and Housatonic River and, further south, by the Hudson Highlands; to the east, they are bordered by the Metacomet Ridge geology. They are on the average 1,000 ft (300 m) lower and less prominent than the Green Mountains of Vermont, and form a broad, dissected plateau punctuated by hills and peaks and cut by river valleys. The Berkshires topography gradually diminishes in profile and elevation from west to east and from north to south, except where rivers have cut deep gorges and sharp bluff faces into the Berkshire plateau While I no doubt have benefits with my location, The real east slope enhancement really kicks in about 10 miles west of here, five miles north of here, and 8 miles SW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't think nervous is the right word. But I know what you mean. I'll reiterate what Tip, Max (?), myself and perhaps others have said--official accumulations may well be significantly higher than post storm totals on the ground due to the nature and duration of the event. 20.7/19 The totals will be interesting...depending on measuring. John Q. Public might have brushed a total of 18" off his car in 3 days but his un-shoveled back deck has 12" on it on Tuesday morning. Also I think the public is downright confused on the duration of the system and snowfall. I'm seeing FB posts from friends in Boston saying "we are getting 2 feet tomorrow, I can't travel at all". No you may get 2 feet by Tuesday. Like 3 days away. Most folks seem to think this is going to come all at once with 2-3"/hr and the blizzard like rates, from what I can tell on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Probably not lol but I wouldn't be surprised if we see sand falling from the sky for some. I could be wrong but I don't see how we rip dendrites with -4 microbars/s of omega and 70-80% RH in the DGZ. One way is that the marine nature of ice nuclei around here often allows us to produce dendrites at temperatures warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 00z RPM is a dream for BOS thru tomorrow night. Deathband looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What's crazy is I can see this under producing here in Maine and overproducing. Anyone else seeing it both ways? Been watching this all day and still wondering if this going to slip away south of PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Great question. Here's the description listed in Wikipedia (which has as much credibility as a NAM run). Geologically, the Berkshires are bordered on the west by the Taconic Mountains, the marble valleys of the Hoosic River and Housatonic River and, further south, by the Hudson Highlands; to the east, they are bordered by the Metacomet Ridge geology. They are on the average 1,000 ft (300 m) lower and less prominent than the Green Mountains of Vermont, and form a broad, dissected plateau punctuated by hills and peaks and cut by river valleys. The Berkshires topography gradually diminishes in profile and elevation from west to east and from north to south, except where rivers have cut deep gorges and sharp bluff faces into the Berkshire plateau While I no doubt have benefits with my location, The real east slope enhancement really kicks in about 10 miles west of here, five miles north of here, and 8 miles SW of here. Interesting stuff, good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Once it gets going, and going, and going, I doubt many people will have a hard time recognizing it as slow attrition....the banks will build up, more things will disappear under the blanket of white... travel will be possible but risky in places like ORH and BOX where well over two feet (closer to three in my neighborhood) covers the ground.... the scariest places will be coming out of side roads onto snow covered roadways in steady light to moderate snow. If anything, the lack of extreme rates will cause more people to come out and therefore there will be a whole lot of fender benders.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm in Wbz tv's 18+ zone. That works enough to set up some false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 00z RPM is a dream for BOS thru tomorrow night. Deathband looks south. Tick tick. Nam rolling too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Besides the local posters you are one of the few that recognizes MPM is the far E slope of the Berks. Savoy the jackpot king of the Berks is 20mi W of Shelburne. Pete's location is well SW of here and is like the Worcester of the E slope because it rarely misses. lol You know If there is one thing I have always loved to do since being a little kid, is draw national maps, include state borders and then pin capitals on the maps where they belong. Now related to this group, I try to know exactly where every town is on the map to the nearest nuance and it is why I sometimes ask posters where they are (even within a town) and elevation. I am not that strong with the meteorology as other posters but I try to add something whether it is accurately observing now casting trends to the city or just interpreting model graphics and radar with an awareness of where exactly I am and where I am looking at exactly. I have pretty much googled the towns of everyone on this board and could now place them on a map lol, and in the bigger towns I need to know what part they are in (and have) This set up is going to have very sharp local cut offs and will be giving some fits and others celebrating and man is that coastal front going to be exciting to watch set up. The upslope in the W Ma area will mostly fall where we have zero posters on this board. I don't know the town where Wxmanmitch bought his property except for him saying it was around 2300' just over the VT border. My guess is his lot gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Tick tick. Nam rolling too It's dumpage inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 One way is that the marine nature of ice nuclei around here often allows us to produce dendrites at temperatures warmer than normal.I swear I almost wrote that but didn't want to get into it with some ball blisters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I swear I almost wrote that but didn't want to get into it with some ball blisters.sounds painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 00z RPM is a dream for BOS thru tomorrow night. Deathband looks south. any map sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You know If there is one thing I have always loved to do since being a little kid, is draw national maps, include state borders and then pin capitals on the maps where they belong. Now related to this group, I try to know exactly where every town is on the map to the nearest nuance and it is why I sometimes ask posters where they are (even within a town) and elevation. I am not that strong with the meteorology as other posters but I try to add something whether it is accurately observing now casting trends to the city or just interpreting model graphics and radar with an awareness of where exactly I am and where I am looking at exactly. I have pretty much googled the towns of everyone on this board and could now place them on a map lol, and in the bigger towns I need to know what part they are in (and have) This set up is going to have very sharp local cut offs and will be giving some fits and others celebrating and man is that coastal front going to be exciting to watch set up. The upslope in the W Ma area will mostly fall where we have zero posters on this board. I don't know the town where Wxmanmitch bought his property except for him saying it was around 2300' just over the VT border. My guess is his lot gets crushed. Woodford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Well--off to bed. Hopefully we'll have more than just 2" come 5:00a.m. Good luck, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0z Nam maintains Boston north west inside 128 to Northshore as bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0z Nam maintains Boston north west inside 128 to Northshore as bullseye Definitely spreads it further south and east vs 18z which seems to be a definable trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Maybe I will get lucky and things turn out better than modeled up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 any map sir Once the chicken hatches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Definitely spreads it further south and east vs 18z which seems to be a definable trend the grim reaper of the se trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Woodford Are you sure, I thought It was south of Woodford. Like Stamford or Readsboro. I think he referenced Woodford in a post but as a reference point to his lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 the grim reaper of the se trend lol Models are just spreading the wealth a bit more is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Interesting stuff, good to know. Topography of W MA is fascinating and complex. Lot's of microclimates. The Berkshires is a broad brush term. Really Berkshire East ski area is not really Berkshires but Hoosac range as MPM posted. Even the Pioneer Valley is a broad brush. Within the CT/Pioneer Valley are other smaller elevated valleys like the Deerfield and Green River Valley areas. Greenfield can have much snowier outcomes than any of the towns S of here because the terrain becomes much tighter and generally higher elevation than let's say Amherst/Northampton but then there are some systems where the entire Ct River Valley from White River Junction to Hartford get screwgied on shadowing and putrid snow growth ie Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Models are just spreading the wealth a bit more is all. yes it appears that way, hopefully many happy weenies come Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Upton should add the southern zones into a watch. If it were box forecasting there would be watches as the box map posted on FB has 4-8" for the shore, and 8-12 about 20 mi inland. Well see what 0Z brings any slight shift colder and watches are getting expanded or just all warnings for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Hmmmmm the exhaust is so nice out here. Starting to think this will be my post come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's dumpage inside 128.I'm screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 0z Nam definitely spreads the wealth a little further down south shore. Looks pretty close to 18z RGEM actually. Remarkable consensus on Boston metro / North shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm screwed. F it it's just the RPM. You'll prob be a bit NW of the jack, but you prob won't even notice much difference with this pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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