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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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wow

 

  • onA chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 29. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • TonightSnow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 23. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • SundaySnow. High near 23. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Sunday NightSnow. Low around 16. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • MondaySnow. High near 23. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
  • Monday NightSnow, mainly before 3am. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
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RGEM thermal fields definitely ticked south. And the next batch of overrunning looked like it ticked south as well.

Edit: Only thing is that it cut back on the north and south side, so it's just narrowing the band of highest QPF.

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This system now has huge bust potential with those inflated snow totals.  

 

If it happens ... awesome, and we'll peer back at the data in hindsight and it will be all fun to pick it apart and put it back to together...etc.  

 

But it's easier to fail 18" than it is to achieve that... much less 24", both of which strain climatology.  Try really hard to come down out of the psychotropic head rush that's fevered the forum since last night, and think about this in a conservative approach.  Those snow totals ...gosh, just estimating they must be on the order of +3 SD, and would be the third time inside of 2-weeks at that! 

 

I guess to be honest, that ending statement means less to me.  Usually when I hear others defend a position with that sort of reasoning, I immediately think, "...Until it happens; you can't limit the possibility just because it hasn't happened before in a previous sample set..."   There were some spectacular winters in the 1800's... 1717, wasn't that the year of the big snow and the 5' snow pack?  I also saw a 15' snow pack in interior NS in photographs taken as recently as 2001 or so.  Maybe this is one of those years.

 

Just not sure this is one of those storms... The trough is weak... The low deepens but swings wide right on all the guidance I have seen. All we have is overrunning, super-imposed on some OE enhancement.  Perhaps those two collocated events will push totals up; and of course, LE does huge totals too, so borrowing from other knowledge/experiences ...  I'm not sure I see objectively why 12-18" occurs all the way up Rt 2 west of 495.  

 

I dunno, I'm preparing for the under at this point, and will be pleasantly surprised if more materializes.   

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RGEM thermal fields definitely ticked south. And the next batch of overrunning looked like it ticked south as well.

Edit: Only thing is that it cut back on the north and south side, so it's just narrowing the band of highest QPF.

The op euro did that as well. Qpf axis narrowed.

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