Dotb Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Jay, you at Merrimack for this event, or back in the city? Between my house (2 miles NNE of the 93/495 intersection) and my office in North Andover, it seems like every other post is talking about another 2 feet plus here. Getting a bit ridiculous. Thinking about calling my employees and telling them to plan to be off Monday, because I'm betting kids will be out of school at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That'll make 8 snow days in two weeks. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 twisted twisted What model is that? That is horrific. PD II and DEC 2003, exactly. What those systems had in common was that cyclogenesis wasn't very impressive, so low levels drove the bus. That is why I'm thinking that I run that risk. Hope it's wrong, but probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 If you didn't see it already last night, I set up a little forecast contest for this event. The deadline was 2 PM but I will accept entries until late this afternoon(say 5pm) with no penalty. Give it a go! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45639-long-duration-overrunningcoastal-forecast-contest/?p=3352915#entry3352915 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What model is that? That is horrific. PD II and DEC 2003, exactly. What those systems had in common was that cyclogenesis wasn't very impressive, so low levels drove the bus. That is why I'm thinking that I run that risk. Hope it's wrong, but probably right. yo monkey those are temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Jay, you at Merrimack for this event, or back in the city? Between my house (2 miles NNE of the 93/495 intersection) and my office in North Andover, it seems like every other post is talking about another 2 feet plus here. Getting a bit ridiculous. Thinking about calling my employees and telling them to plan to be off Monday, because I'm betting kids will be out of school at least Monday, and probably Tuesday. That'll make 8 snow days in two weeks. Unbelievable. I'm up in the air in terms of this event. My friend has rented out the second floor of a bar downtown for a 21st tonight so I will be in the city for at least this evening. I honestly think that Essex sees more than BOS. I think amounts will be closer to two feet than one; especially for our county. I would bet on Monday for your employees too. BOS will do extremely well but I wonder if they are sandwiched in between localized maxes at Blue Hills and toward the north shore? Time will tell. There are VERY impressive signals for a massive coastal enhanced jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 please link all roof collapses in the thread for that to document,tia He's going to have all sorts of issues if the BTV WRF is anywhere near correct. I know Coastalwx has been liking this model this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 yo monkey those are temps Sorry, I'm mobile...... Looked quickly at my area, and was going to say....didn't jive with the larger scale qpf maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 yo monkey those are temps LOL I was gonna say. That CF is perfect for north and west of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Jesus H. Add the BTV WRF to the NAM, GFS, HRDPS, RGEM, UKMET consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is a Ray special. KGAY frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 He's going to have all sorts of issues if the BTV WRF is anywhere near correct. I know Coastalwx has been liking this model this winter... Untitled.jpg Oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is a Ray special. KGAY frontal.I jackpottted him in the contest(which all of you should enter! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45639-long-duration-overrunningcoastal-forecast-contest/?p=3352915#entry3352915),Pretty clear signal on the models for a nice local max just to the NW of the CF which sets up along 128 or over BOS. Wouldn't be shocked to see a 2' spot there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wow...that is the 30" bullseye for KBEV, Peabody and Salem that I thought we may see during he blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh how we pray.1990 graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This is my thinking right now. Going for jacks in the berks elevation and the heavy model consensus within 128/495 Boston. The models with least accumulated precip are around 1.3/1.4 for the two jackpot regions. Some are over 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like taint is confined to i95 in CT. I think a general 4-8" is a good call from 95 to merritt in SWCT, then 8"+ as you head north. Tight little gradient here. Eh don't see 4-8 down here. Even the NWS is calling for less than 1 inch. Classic north of the merrit type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Amounts to throw out preliminary call for posters here: PWM area: 16-20 LWM to BED to BVY: 18-25 BOS area inside 128: 14-20 PVD to ginxy: 12-16 BDL to Kevin: 10-16 Mpm: 16-24 Lower Connecticut: 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Amounts to throw out preliminary call for posters here: PWM area: 16-20 LWM to BED to BVY: 18-25 BOS area inside 128: 14-20 PVD to ginxy: 12-16 BDL to Kevin: 10-16 Mpm: 16-24 Lower Connecticut: 6-12 people were dogging your Mex numbers,funny how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Amounts to throw out preliminary call for posters here: PWM area: 16-20 LWM to BED to BVY: 18-25 BOS area inside 128: 14-20 PVD to ginxy: 12-16 BDL to Kevin: 10-16 Mpm: 16-24 Lower Connecticut: 6-12 What about Ktan to kpym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 people were dogging your Mex numbers,funny how that works Nothing's verified yet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nothing's verified yet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nothing's verified yet thowow I fell asleep after raking my roof thought it was Tuesday afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 1990 graphics He still prays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Topsfield might be the weenie spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 He's going to have all sorts of issues if the BTV WRF is anywhere near correct. I know Coastalwx has been liking this model this winter... Untitled.jpg That's not even thru the end of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So Pickles and Zeus are thinking bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Eh don't see 4-8 down here. Even the NWS is calling for less than 1 inch. Classic north of the merrit type storm. Too low. Less than 6", probably. But deff not 1". I'm thinking 4" along 95 and 8" closer to merrit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 My first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 fwiw, CT station GFS MEX snow numbers for tonight, tomorrow, and Monday: BDL: 4, 8, 8 BDR: 1, 2, 4 DXR: 1, 4, 6 GON: 1, 1, 4 HFD: 2, 6, 8 HVN: 1, 2, 4 IJD: 2, 6, 8 MMK: 2, 4, 6 OXC: 1, 4, 6 And for reference: 1 = T-2" 2 = 2-4" 3 = 4-6" 4 = 6-8" 5 = 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So Pickles and Zeus are thinking bust? if you can click your mouse on contest thread that would show you Yes, busted zippers from pants tent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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