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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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What r your thoughts about OES? Seems it would be a good setup.

 

Well, only if the low doesn't track too close. earlier runs looked good for it, but the GFS is getting too far north. To me, this also looks like it will be an event that will have a CF band near BOS. It might oscillate on either side of the city. 

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Yeah, somehow that would not shock me. That's probably only if the boundary gets hung up real close.

Yeah otherwise it's snow.

I still think this is going to have a more organized precip shield at some point during the event than most guidance shows. The euro was probably closest to that. We will see if the Euro regains its mojo in this one. A very complex system where superior data assimilation is extra valuable is the type of storm I'd expect the euro to shine in. Maybe it's a slump buster.

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Yeah otherwise it's snow.

I still think this is going to have a more organized precip shield at some point during the event than most guidance shows. The euro was probably closest to that. We will see if the Euro regains its mojo in this one. A very complex system where superior data assimilation is extra valuable is the type of storm I'd expect the euro to shine in. Maybe it's a slump buster.

 

I said the same thing...it would be an awesome storm for it regain some composure again. Usually it shines when you have a convoluted setup.

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The members of the GEFS are still in disagreement. Some look too far to the north, others are just a mess. 

 

I know what you mean Ray, but I kind of buy a scenario where maybe it's more lighter snows pike north and then a more robust coastal like the euro was showing as Will outlined. Of course that low could be too close or out to sea...but I don't know if I agree with a measly 1012mb low sliding east of the BM on Monday.

Two of those members are way north and are probably skewing the mean.  Most have the 850mb line staying at the south coast or further offshore.

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Exactly. And the models might underestimate that band. That is why Gyx discussion was perplexing to me

Yeah otherwise it's snow.

I still think this is going to have a more organized precip shield at some point during the event than most guidance shows. The euro was probably closest to that. We will see if the Euro regains its mojo in this one. A very complex system where superior data assimilation is extra valuable is the type of storm I'd expect the euro to shine in. Maybe it's a slump buster.

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Two of those members are way north and are probably skewing the mean.  Most have the 850mb line staying at the south coast or further offshore.

 

Right, but what I like to look at is the trend and the trend was noticeable today. We'll see of that continues at 00z. Running out of time for bigger shifts either way.

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Scoot, how big of a storm u thinking? MECS like potential?

 

Well if the coastal got going and we got several inches of overrunning, potentially..yes. However, I wouldn't say that is likely at this stage. I almost feel like a 3-5 overrunning and a 4-6 Monday deal for you..but that is just a WAG before the 00z stuff comes out. It's one of those storms where I really don't have a good feel for, other than you ain't sniffing 32F.

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Right, but what I like to look at is the trend and the trend was noticeable today. We'll see of that continues at 00z. Running out of time for bigger shifts either way.

I did notice the thermal profiles at 850 and the surface trended quite a bit colder on the 18z 42hr RGEM vs the 12z 48hr.  A bit early in the event, but just saying.  Maybe that high will keep that push going.

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Well if the coastal got going and we got several inches of overrunning, potentially..yes. However, I wouldn't say that is likely at this stage. I almost feel like a 3-5 overrunning and a 4-6 Monday deal for you..but that is just a WAG before the 00z stuff comes out. It's one of those storms where I really don't have a good feel for, other than you ain't sniffing 32F.

I agree....protracted 6-12" most likely.
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I agree....protracted 6-12" most likely.

 

Yeah, I'd agree probably 72-hour totals of 6"+ (or at least 4"+) over a very large portion of New England between the warm air overrunning and any developing coastal low. 

 

Not a big impactor but keeps it very wintery and adds to the seasonal tally.  I think the EURO is the way to go so far.  I'd bet the EURO holds serve at 00z and the others swing slightly south.  I'd put CNE in the crosshairs, from say like the Pike up to RUT-LEB-IZG. 

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Yeah, I'd agree probably 72-hour totals of 6"+ (or at least 4"+) over a very large portion of New England between the warm air overrunning and any developing coastal low. 

 

Not a big impactor but keeps it very wintery and adds to the seasonal tally.  I think the EURO is the way to go so far.  I'd bet the EURO holds serve at 00z and the others swing slightly south.  I'd put CNE in the crosshairs, from say like the Pike up to RUT-LEB-IZG. 

 

You would hit the 21z SREFS

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