CT Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Will said not to use Ens qpf once the event has started Good for Will. Most of our QPF is coming Monday so I'm not too concerned about using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Sorry for the IMBY, but any thoughts on Northern RI? Sounds like it would be pretty similar to CT but was curious. Probably a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Will said not to use Ens qpf once the event has started Link to quote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Damn it. Send some snow down here . Unbelieveable winter. Lol, ikr trying not to read but it sounds so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Has Boston ever received 3 15"+ storms on one winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Link to quote?Its in this thread. I remeber him saying yesterday was the last day you could use ens qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Its in this thread. I remeber him saying yesterday was the last day you could use ens qpf he did say it yesterday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well I know the idea is that you move from ensembles to deterministic models when you get inside about 48hr, but the Euro ensembles have pretty high resolution themselves. They don't usually differ from the op too much inside of 24-48hr so it may be a moot point, but I don't think I would toss them. The op runs haven't been so hot inside of 12hr either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 just confirming that I read this post... I just think folks are getting a tad carried away... Although, I did outline some kinematics yesterday that could certainly enhance this beyond the general scope of the model output. We'll see. The NAM model is clearly signaling a proficient OE enhancement to the QPF for far eastern coastal zones. That's where the lion's share of those monster QPF totals are coming from for Logan. The FRH grid tallies 1.72" liq eq through 60 hours! But this slopes off pretty quick even as near-by as I95 in the charts. Tough to say ...that's really a meso point of discussion so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I remember him saying it too about the ensembles...saying that the Ops And hi res stuff would be able to pick up better on the nuances of the event when we are this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What kind of ratios are we looking at for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And to think roughly two weeks ago I was sitting in the low single digits on the season… Anyway, OES enhancement looks real nice around BOS. Also, interesting blossoming echoes on the radar, though not seeing anything reaching the ground ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Still lower confidence at any point do we really make WSW criteria. Might hit it a couple of times but its spread out over a long duration. At that point do you just issue the warning for wording? WSW (6" in 12hrs or 9" in 24hrs for GYX CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What kind of ratios are we looking at for this? Should be fairly high north of p-type transition zone. Question is, where is that going to set up? Any other guesses welcome, but I'm thinking ~ NYC through the coastal zones of CT/RI and up to ~ the CC Canal. My experience with these newly arriving arctic domes, ..they'll tend to win out and press the boundary and the thermal compression S as a correction. Not absolutely certain of that, of course, ... but don't be shocked if it's cold. In fact, the cold in the lower levels may allow for high ratio snow to go to dry sleep pellets, and then if zr does take place, very efficient accretion well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Should be fairly high north of p-type transition zone. Question is, where is that going to set up? Any other guesses welcome, but I'm thinking ~ NYC through the coastal zones of CT/RI and up to ~ the CC Canal. My experience with these newly arriving arctic domes, ..they'll tend to win out and press the boundary and the thermal compression S as a correction. Not absolutely certain of that, of course, ... but don't be shocked if it's cold. In fact, the cold in the lower levels may allow for high ratio snow to go to dry sleep pellets, and then if zr does take place, very efficient accretion well below freezing. Okx has some pretty aggressive ice in their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Still lower confidence at any point do we really make WSW criteria. Might hit it a couple of times but its spread out over a long duration. At that point do you just issue the warning for wording? WSW (6" in 12hrs or 9" in 24hrs for GYX CWA) I'm on the fence even down here along Rt 2 in Mass, which is supposed to plausibly jack-pot. Thing is, ...I can see arguments for this over-producing. Meso from banding... OE, etc.. But I can also nod to this busting too high for snow totals, due to dry air consumption off newly arriving arctic high (evaporation sink), and the fact that most synoptic charts struggle to make .25" in a single 3-hourly period pretty much everywhere.. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Okx has some pretty aggressive ice in their forecast Yeah, I don't blame them... that's pretty impressive low level cold, and given to the high pressing just N of Maine throughout the next 60 hours, ...in the spring, do we ever question the arrival of a backdoor ?? I mean, it's not too dissimilar to that.. should see sub-freezing air wedge down S under what warm layers there are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm on the fence even down here along Rt 2 in Mass, which is supposed to plausibly jack-pot. Thing is, ...I can see arguments for this over-producing. Meso from banding... OE, etc.. But I can also nod to this busting too high for snow totals, due to dry air consumption off newly arriving arctic high (evaporation sink), and the fact that most synoptic charts struggle to make .25" in a single 3-hourly period pretty much everywhere.. Interesting... I agree with you completely. My feelings are to go with the pattern we have been experiencing. This is gonna over produce! If this whole pattern verifies we are sitting on the greatest winter stretch in the general boston area for many of our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 RGEM is locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 RGEM is locked and loaded. Northern ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 RGEM is locked and loaded.quality detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Northern ct? It's close to 6z..Best overrunning from S Central CT on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 RGEM is locked and loaded. How do you think our neck of the woods fares in terms of totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 How do you think our neck of the woods fares in terms of totals? Prepare for 12-24 imo...I know broad but thats what im planning on. I am feeling 90% sure you stay all frozen about 75-80% for me in hull. This is gonna be fun. It has seemed to me before each storm the south shore will get screwed...then we do fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think two feet is a tall order. Prepare for 12-24 imo...I know broad but thats what im planning on. I am feeling 90% sure you stay all frozen about 75-80% for me in hull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's close to 6z..Best overrunning from S Central CT on northBest overrunning is still through the heart of Mass with shadowing in the valley and enhancement around Boston metro. But it is really not bad for CT if you are looking for lots of "snowing" observations. Looks like it would be similar to the GFS for the coastal and has had that look for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Best overrunning is still through the heart of Mass with shadowing in the valley and enhancement around Boston metro. But it is really not bad for CT if you are looking for lots of "snowing" observations. Looks like it would be similar to the GFS for the coastal and has had that look for a while. It's got 3-6 for you by noon tomorrow with more after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm on the fence even down here along Rt 2 in Mass, which is supposed to plausibly jack-pot. Thing is, ...I can see arguments for this over-producing. Meso from banding... OE, etc.. But I can also nod to this busting too high for snow totals, due to dry air consumption off newly arriving arctic high (evaporation sink), and the fact that most synoptic charts struggle to make .25" in a single 3-hourly period pretty much everywhere.. Interesting... Yeah I know I feel the same way. Its very interesting setup. This looks to be one of those storm where you fly by the seat of your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think two feet is a tall order. I agree. The possibility is there though...atleast in my opinion. I think a solid 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's got 3-6 for you by noon tomorrow with more after thatYeah that's a pretty decent initial slug it has for tonight/tomorrow morning but like the gfs it looks to lighten up considerably compared to MA until the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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