RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A 25 mile shift makes a pretty substantial difference for those on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A 25 mile shift makes a pretty substantial difference for those on the edge. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 LOL at how the GFS has 8 consecutive 6-hour blocs of .10+" of qpf out here. Some at .25+. Lots of light/moderate snow for hours and hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Trying to locate a max jackpot zone as we always seem to. It really does scream NE MA to BOS. We won't really have a better idea until this coastal is finished settling itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A 25 mile shift makes a pretty substantial difference for those on the edge. this for sure,couple tickles wouldn't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well it does, but this arctic dome is not very deep so it's not like rates are through the roof. But, get a coastal going where all the processes used to generate precip are enhanced, and you get greater QPF.So was he saying that there is "accelerating" upside should the coastal come in stronger? Or just commenting on why the models are spitting out >1" qpf without great dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What do folks think about the south shore, over by Hingham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What do folks think about the south shore, over by Hingham? I bet we get some weenie bands just south of BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We've never seen you post so many maps of your hatred rival the GFS. Tossed? lol Weird sucker hole in eastern Ct on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We've never seen you post so many maps of your hatred rival the GFS. Tossed? lol You always go with the model that shows the most snow for your area,But mine is the NAM and I would get to many negative responses. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As mentioned in the BOX AFD CLUSTERING OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NW-SE FRONTMAINLY N OF THE MASS-TURNPIKE. COULD THIS WOBBLE FURTHER N? QUITEPOSSIBLE. SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH / POSITION OF HIGHOVER QUEBEC. SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS HAVE WOBBLED IN BOTHTHE N AND S DIRECTION WITH THE NW-SE AXIS OF GREATEST FORCING /ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS. LIKELY TO BE WOBBLES WITH LATER FORECASTGUIDANCE. ALL-IN-ALL...ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THEPERIOD MAINLY TO THE N OF THE MA-PIKE FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME. Like we have seen lately, the band of advisory snows or "best area" could shift another 25 miles in either direction and this would have an effect on Sat Nite-Sunday am's "stuff" up to at least 128 belt on another N drift w overrunning. With as few as 25 miles being the difference between maybe 1.5" and 4" inches for some this could come down to a bit of a now cast for areas that aren't even on periphery of higher modeled QPF from overrunning. So I think that while model trends were good for the Pike to SNH area (in general) on a WNW-ESE heading this is not "locked yet" and as far as the coastal enhanced stuff on Sun night to Monday Night we are definitely not locking in warning levels YET, even thou it looks good we are not much of a north shift away from seeing accums cut for much of the area. I'm sure this reality will be met with ...."venom" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 As mentioned in the BOX AFD CLUSTERING OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE NW-SE FRONT MAINLY N OF THE MASS-TURNPIKE. COULD THIS WOBBLE FURTHER N? QUITE POSSIBLE. SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH / POSITION OF HIGH OVER QUEBEC. SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS HAVE WOBBLED IN BOTH THE N AND S DIRECTION WITH THE NW-SE AXIS OF GREATEST FORCING / ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS. LIKELY TO BE WOBBLES WITH LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALL-IN-ALL...ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD MAINLY TO THE N OF THE MA-PIKE FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME. Like we have seen lately, the band of advisory snows or "best area" could shift another 25 miles in either direction and this would have an effect on Sat Nite-Sunday am's "stuff" up to at least 128 belt on another N drift w overrunning. With as few as 25 miles being the difference between maybe 1.5" and 4" inches for some this could come down to a bit of a now cast for areas that aren't even on periphery of higher modeled QPF from overrunning. So I think that while model trends were good for the Pike to SNH area (in general) on a WNW-ESE heading this is not "locked yet" and as far as the coastal enhanced stuff on Sun night to Monday Night we are definitely not locking in warning levels YET, even thou it looks great. Harvey seems to think that in his experience with these types of setups the colder air will be more south than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Weird sucker hole in eastern Ct on thisthat's the valley from IJD east, down slope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 GEFS look awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So was he saying that there is "accelerating" upside should the coastal come in stronger? Or just commenting on why the models are spitting out >1" qpf without great dynamics? He is saying that the steep frontal slope may cause enhanced bands that aren't well modeled. Sometimes that can happen, but the weaker dynamics this go around sort of preclude that IMO. That's not to say there won't be a few weenie bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 that's the valley from IJD east, down slope I was thinking about IJD which would make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We all love us some John, but let's love him in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 yeah they do good bump south GEFS look awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see a lot of mix forecast. Do you still think we mix down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GEFS look awesome Can i get a map or link , thanks rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 He is saying that the steep frontal slope may cause enhanced bands that aren't well modeled. Sometimes that can happen, but the weaker dynamics this go around sort of preclude that IMO. That's not to say there won't be a few weenie bands.Will scolded me this morning, but I still think there's some mesoscale nuances here with a bit of easterly upslope not unlike the firehose storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see a lot of mix forecast. Do you still think we mix down here? I think you are going to have to wait till energy for coastal is best samples at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 why do they keep saying gfs and gefs at 18z are north in nyc forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015020618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=500 Can i get a map or link , thanks rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Can i get a map or link , thanks revWhile you're training the heavies in the gym ., take a lookhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015020618&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see a lot of mix forecast. Do you still think we mix down here? It may get dicey in the beginning stages of that coastal, but the GFS is probably a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 its north of them with the best stuff why do they keep saying gfs and gefs at 18z are north in nyc forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Will scolded me this morning, but I still think there's some mesoscale nuances here with a bit of easterly upslope not unlike the firehose storm Yeah I honestly do not see that one bit. It's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yeah I honestly do not see that one bit. It's not even close.Ok. Scolded again. We'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 why do they keep saying gfs and gefs at 18z are north in nyc forum?The GFS originally was south with the overrunning, but was a bit north to start the coastal Before sliding along 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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