dendrite Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The overrunning is also earlier in the event...so areas that are more likely to see it gives them confidence in the winter storm watch. They might think some area south will get 8" in 24 hours, but probably not until Sunday night and Monday so the confidence becomes lower being further out. They might issue a watch further south tomorrow morning if the 00z models give a good hit on the coastal phase of the storm. I was just thinking the same thing; really it's 4th period for that phase of the event so it's kinda tough to issue much for that range. It's rare to commit to a statement unless it's like every guddance in the world including the Antartic model's aunt louise predicting destiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 And us Kevin. Nrn CT will do fine. Nope -- looks like < 1" for him, and closer to a foot at the CT/MA tolls ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Look at the spread on the BOX map in Bristol Co. 10-14 in Mansfield and 3-4 on the beaches of Westport I would be surprised if there is that much spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I really like how the Euro Ens look. Personally, not great for MBY, but I think the ensemble means and probabilities look good. It totally weenies out for the north shore of Boston. Also shows very little QPF this weekend south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yeah, 18z NAM getting closer to a clue here Not so sure about that. It is showing rain for Boston of .7 from 60 hr thru 81 hr. Either this will be one its worst epic fails, or it is on to something. I'll go with the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah personally I will trim down the northern amounts somewhat if the 00z guidance comes in southward, I think the NAM is leaning in that direction overnight tonight. The GFS is already much colder than the NAM with the track south of the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 hard to keep the overrunning event and the storm on Monday separate. Is the NWS watch for the overrunning event only or does it include the prospective storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't get it. The other map that went out until Sunday had me getting 2-3 and now I am only getting 6-8 including Monday? That would mean I only get another 3-4 out of the costal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yea, I'm afraid it will be an inside of rt 128 set up...sometimes I get a bit of an FU sliver when that happens, but no way of knowing yet. That is the risk I run in really cold events. I don't see that at all on any guidance. Looks pretty damn good for all of us down right through BOS and even down to like Brockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 everything hard to keep the overrunning event and the storm on Monday separate. Is the NWS watch for the overrunning event only or does it include the prospective storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 looks promising, they actually nailed the last storm here hopefully they are right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks like a lot of folks in E. MA will be pulling ahead in the snow total table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 why did you move to westerly in the first place if you like snow This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM looks like it held pretty steady from 12z on the axis of overrunning...QPF is greater since we get to see another 6 hours, but the axis is still pretty much the same: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't get it. The other map that went out until Sunday had me getting 2-3 and now I am only getting 6-8 including Monday? That would mean I only get another 3-4 out of the costal. I wouldn't sweat it. They will update again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. Yuck. You could pick some better spots than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 gfs threw 42 looks nice for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not so sure about that. It is showing rain for Boston of .7 from 60 hr thru 81 hr. Either this will be one its worst epic fails, or it is on to something. I'll go with the former. Hence the word, "getting" ... it's trended S. It's more intense, too, which is something I am watching for as more dynamics continue to relay off the assimilations of the eastern Pacific.. And looking at the other details of the synoptic evolution, not sure that interpretation of rain is going to be NAM's feather in the cap. It's typically too warm of model among the list of headaches it serves beyond 30 to 40 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. So you want to live in Burrillville, RI... That's essentially the "snow country" in RI, if there was such a place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 gfs almost exact from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. dude I am like 10 minutes from anything, come on up and Westerly is only like 45 mins away, I can point you to some great weenie spots in Sterling, Killingly at 700 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM looks like it held pretty steady from 12z on the axis of overrunning...QPF is greater since we get to see another 6 hours, but the axis is still pretty much the same: I like the hole in the QPG over Ayer - nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So you want to live in Burrillville, RI... That's essentially the "snow country" in RI, if there was such a place. North Foster,Gloucester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is my first winter here in New England and I guess maybe I'm somewhat of a snob being from Buffalo and averaging over 100" a year, but this 30" a season just isn't cutting it for me. I'm buying a house this summer up in far NE CT or far NW RI. No joke. I don't mind driving further for anything such as work, grocery stores, ect... to double my seasonal snowfall total. Post all the double and triple hot dogs you guys want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 HPC THE MODELS STILL SHOW A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AFRONTAL ZONE WHICH STARTS OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THENDROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR/MOISTUREADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF LOWTO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL FAVOR ASTRIPE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN MN THROUGH THEGREAT LAKES...NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. A CONSENSUS OFTHE GUIDANCE LED BY THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF WOULD TEND TO FAVORAMOUNTS OF LOCALLY 6 TO 10 INCHES WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONEDGEOGRAPHICAL SWATH.ON MONDAY...THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTIONOF THE LOW CENTER CROSSING OUT OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE NAM ANDSREF MODELS SUPPORT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NOTABLY FARTHER NORTHAND WITH GREATER INTENSITY BEFORE THEN REDEVELOPING OFFSHORESOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE MONDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE WETTERAND SNOWIER FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ONTHE OTHER HAND ARE A BIT WEAKER BY COMPARISON AND FARTHER SOUTH.THIS CAMP HAS BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND WILL BE PREFERRED.CONSEQUENTLY...THE THINKING IS THAT LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRAVERSINGTHE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE THENREDEVELOPING OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONEDFRONTAL ZONE THAT THE LOW CENTER IS TRAVERSING IS EXPECTED TOBECOME MORE SUPPRESSED WITH TIME AS DEVELOPING CONFLUENT FLOWALOFT AND RESULTING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER SOUTHEASTCANADA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OFTHE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ESPECIALLY NY AND SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND...INCLUDING POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTICFROM NORTHERN PA TO NORTHERN NJ WHERE STRONGER FRONTOGENETICFORCING NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH STRONGER HEIGHTFALLS/DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED LOCALLY AT THIS TIME. COMPLICATING THEFORECAST FURTHER IS THE EXPECTATION THAT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ARCTICAIR WILL LIKELY BE FILTERING SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ANDUNDERCUTTING A RELATIVELY WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT. THIS WILLFAVOR A FREEZING RAIN THREAT LOCALLY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIALCURRENTLY FAVORING MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA...NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHEASTNY AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN CT. A LOW RISK OF 0.25 INCH ICING ORGREATER IS INDICATED FOR THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS looks pretty darn sweet there cutie pies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The GFS looks further south for the overrunning, and bit further north for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ray hows this naked twister GFS style, south shore 31 you 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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