CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There will definitely be CF enhancement/OES. Classic setup. I feel like the CF will oscillate near BOS. Maybe creep up to 128 prior to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Why is this and at what time frame do we stop looking at ensemble guidance? Lower resolution on ensembles make them worse at mesoscale aspects of the forecast. I'd probably stop looking at ensemble means tomorrow. There's still some larger scale uncertainty at the moment which makes them useful, but as the goalposts continue to narrow, the larger scale variables become less important since the model agreement becomes high....at that point, the mesoscale nuances are what drive the model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There will definitely be CF enhancement/OES. Classic setup. I feel like the CF will oscillate near BOS. Maybe creep up to 128 prior to Monday. Yea, I'm afraid it will be an inside of rt 128 set up...sometimes I get a bit of an FU sliver when that happens, but no way of knowing yet. That is the risk I run in really cold events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yes it was tough without any cold, as any coastal place would be. But, give me high pressure and give me nudity. I know what it takes around here. Oh absolutely. Was just pointing out that you weren't in a good spot for a while...but now you ARE!! Hope we make out ok in Interior Central CT with this whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I need about 7 inches to reach my climo and then everything else is gravy. I think seven or eight sounds like a reasonable number in my area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would go 3-6" amounts for the Islands, and 6-12" amounts from the CHH area to HYA to FAL to TAU to HFD areas. Then 12-18" amounts along the Pike and northward, with possible 18"+ amounts from NE MA to ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think this ends up trending colder in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Official first call for the site for Saturday-Monday. Thinking is that the 3-6 area sees little to no overrunning, 5-9 area sees 1-3/2-4 from overrunning and then both areas see 3-6 from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would go 3-6" amounts for the Islands, and 6-12" amounts from the CHH area to HYA to FAL to TAU to HFD areas. Then 12-18" amounts along the Pike and northward, with possible 18"+ amounts from NE MA to ME. I have no argument with your Pike northward amounts, but I'm not expecting anything more than 3-6 on a line SE of EWB-PYM..unless future guidance ticks further south with the boundary. I've seen this happen many times before with these types of storms. Just north of this boundary will clean up, but it will be a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I need about 7 inches to reach my climo and then everything else is gravy. I think seven or eight sounds like a reasonable number in my area right now.At least 10 there. I fully expect another jump south at 00z tonight with the overrunning and we all wake up in a great spot tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would go 3-6" amounts for the Islands, and 6-12" amounts from the CHH area to HYA to FAL to TAU to HFD areas. Then 12-18" amounts along the Pike and northward, with possible 18"+ amounts from NE MA to ME.i hope you are right my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i hope you are right my friend. I believe so my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 At least 10 there. I fully expect another jump south at 00z tonight with the overrunning and we all wake up in a great spot tomorrow thinking the same, we'll find out soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yeah, 18z NAM getting closer to a clue here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I have no argument with your Pike northward amounts, but I'm not expecting anything more than 3-6 on a line SE of EWB-PYM..unless future guidance ticks further south with the boundary. I've seen this happen many times before with these types of storms. Just north of this boundary will clean up, but it will be a fine line.Honestly I think we do fine. I'm expecting the amounts to be more uniform throughout EMass except for those favored OES areas. I've seen these systems before and as long as the cold is entrenched and the boundary movesenough S we should be okay. I would not even be surprised if areas N and W of Boston fight dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am really surprised there is no watch up for plymouth county. Anyone elses thoughts on this? I figure it will pop up after 00z gives some more clarity. Really think the models are blowing wind in terms of the heat factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Today was one of the coldest days of the year around here. Especially early AM. Expect a few colder ones in the coming weeks after this bout of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yea, I'm afraid it will be an inside of rt 128 set up...sometimes I get a bit of an FU sliver when that happens, but no way of knowing yet. That is the risk I run in really cold events. I don't really see that. I think you are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am really surprised there is no watch up for plymouth county. Anyone elses thoughts on this? I figure it will pop up after 00z gives some more clarity. Really think the models are blowing wind in terms of the heat factor I wouldn't get caught up in where they have the watches up..They're basing that on the most from the overrunning being in that zone. That part is far from figured out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am in 10-14 but no watch. That's why i mentioned it. I am fully expecting a foot here and have been since i saw the GFS at 12z.I think you get a 12-18 in tolland. personally (i know broad but just my best prediction for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's been a while since I've made a map... ...I feel like there's more bust potential in southern areas at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The overrunning is also earlier in the event...so areas that are more likely to see it gives them confidence in the winter storm watch. They might think some area south will get 8" in 24 hours, but probably not until Sunday night and Monday so the confidence becomes lower being further out. They might issue a watch further south tomorrow morning if the 00z models give a good hit on the coastal phase of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The overrunning is also earlier in the event...so areas that are more likely to see it gives them confidence in the winter storm watch. They might think some area south will get 8" in 24 hours, but probably not until Sunday night and Monday so the confidence becomes lower being further out. They might issue a watch further south tomorrow morning if the 00z models give a good hit on the coastal phase of the storm. Or when the overrunning comes south more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'd hit that BOX map in a heartbeat. Hope it's how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 And us Kevin. Nrn CT will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I swear I didn't see the NWS BOX map before I posted my own!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Or when the overrunning comes south more so It probably isn't going to move that much...it's like 36-48 hours out now. It might tick either direction 25 miles but the confidence is definitely highest on the overrunning part from pike to S NH....you'll still get some from it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The overrunning is also earlier in the event...so areas that are more likely to see it gives them confidence in the winter storm watch. They might think some area south will get 8" in 24 hours, but probably not until Sunday night and Monday so the confidence becomes lower being further out. They might issue a watch further south tomorrow morning if the 00z models give a good hit on the coastal phase of the storm. I kinda figured this. I await the 00z models with bated breath Sucks always being on the boundary line. South shore life + ocean life. I will admit tho. This winter has been the best of my adult life on the South Shore of MA North PYM county....Maybe 96 but i was 7/8 years old can only remeber snow being past my waist...lol and being off school for a week. Early days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I would go 3-6" amounts for the Islands, and 6-12" amounts from the CHH area to HYA to FAL to TAU to HFD areas. Then 12-18" amounts along the Pike and northward, with possible 18"+ amounts from NE MA to ME. From what I've seen, the bigger snows don't get al that far north fo the Kittery bridge, and any southward move would accentuate that trend. I'm anticipating a nice 4-8" refresher while folks to the south set some snowpack records - it's been that way since our big dump in Feb. 2009, except for last month's 20" bliz when I was in SNJ watching a 12-16" forecast verify at 1". Still way above my avg snowfall for the date, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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