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Long duration overrunning to coastal disco 02/07-02/09


Damage In Tolland

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SE NH and most of E MA jackpot on Euro ensembles...with a nice finger of higher qpf extending WNW along Rt 2 and near N MA border out to S VT.

 

It has all of NE over a half inch of QPF though until you get to Maine. This is the ensemble mean I'm talking.

 

We'll be losing interest in the ensemble mean pretty soon though as deterministic runs start gaining skill on the mesoscale boundaries.

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Sounds good. I'm worried about freezing rain down here..could get nasty with that NE cold tuck

 

I looked at the the 15z SREF plumes, And assuming everyone should know to jettison the ARW members it still had a decent mean of just under 10" but pretty useless anyways other then for entertainment purposes

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BTV goes with a Winter Storm Watch.

 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
241 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
  HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF AN HOUR AT TIMES SUNDAY
  MORNING AND MONDAY.

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW LIKELY
  AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
  THIS LONG DURATION EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 10 TO 20.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW.
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Watches out from the MA/CT border and north.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
322 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

...PROLONGED SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

MAZ002>016-026-070430-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.150208T0600Z-150210T0600Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...
QUINCY...AYER
322 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS NORTH OF THE
CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND BORDER.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...OF 8 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A
24-HOUR PERIOD.

* TIMING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS LONG DURATION EVENT.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25
MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND THE 20S. LOWS AROUND THE TEENS.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$

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Tons of spread in the individuals though.

Looking at the plumes BOS has a pretty even distribution of members between 1.07" and 24.53"(mean is 13.13" but every member is either less than 10" or greater than 15"), similar crazy distributions at some of the other stations I checked.

 

If you want to look up your own: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150206&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PVD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap and replace PVD(bolded for convenience, unbold it before you put it in the url bar) with your station of choice. 

 

2.9-19 at AQW with a mean of 13.6.  I'll be good with that.  And AQW is not a great snow place.

 

Man this is getting to the point of historic for the entire region esp the Eastern 2/3 of SNE up into Maine

 

Historically frustrating for GC, though a little bit less so than it had been.

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