dryslot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that. Over the long duration this is not really even a significant event to stick a warning out for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that.I'm glad you put the disclaimer, but if that's the worst case scenario...we don't have anything to complain about. That's what I'm thinking happens. Maybe 6-12" regionwide over 60 hours. May not even be enough to close the schools at this point with so many districts already deep into their snow day counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that. Exactly, I'm already at that point. And Any more ticks and I see rain with the coastal. Rain? Wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm glad you put the disclaimer, but if that's the worst case scenario...we don't have anything to complain about. That's what I'm thinking happens. Maybe 6-12" regionwide over 60 hours. May not even be enough to close the schools at this point with so many districts already deep into their snow day counts. Well, that would be a fraud event, imo.....12 not so much, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This could very easily tick south again. Everyone is seeing snow as it is right now. Not every storm will be 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Over the long duration this is not really even a significant event to stick a warning out forI don't think they could stick a warning out for it. In SNE it's 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24, and I think NW CT/W MA (ALY's zones) it's 7 and 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Exactly, I'm already at that point. And Any more ticks and I see rain with the coastal. Rain? Wtf...I'll run for tbe banter thread if that is where this goes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that. Worse than light rain over 3-4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Lol at the weenie comments in here. 18z GFS looks pretty darn good for all of SNE and into CNE. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that. Hey at least you are honest about it. I say take the refreshers as they come, already a good snowpack in place, just enjoy having flakes fall from the sky at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The boundary gets established on Saturday...so we really aren't that far from go time on that aspect of it...now we can still see shifts as to just how elastic that boundary becomes on Sunday, but I'm not expecting 100-200 mile trends because we're not that far out from the first phase which is having that arctic high nose down and establish the boundary...that happens about 48h from now. The difference between the NAM and all other guidance right now is it essentially has the flattest flow in the middle of the country associated with the main shortwave for Sunday night and Monday...the global models all buckle the flow a bit on the lee side of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Worse than light rain over 3-4" days? I don't see that as an option imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I don't think they could stick a warning out for it. In SNE it's 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24, and I think NW CT/W MA (ALY's zones) it's 7 and 9. It would be considered an advisory event unless you get the coastal to crank or it just ends up a long term over running event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It would be considered an advisory event unless you get the coastal to crank or it just ends up a long term over running event I could see a bunch of like 48-hour advisories across New England, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hey at least you are honest about it. I say take the refreshers as they come, already a good snowpack in place, just enjoy having flakes fall from the sky at this point. All kidding aside, I won't cludder the thread. I know we were kidding around this pm, but I keep any grumbling to the banter. I know folks get pissed, but I want to see this season go to the moon a.d realize its potential. I've had a year fron hell, and this winter has been a wonderful diversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I could see a bunch of like 48-hour advisories across New England, lol. Or just one continuous one its actually falling at a rate where your hardly going to notice it accumulating other then some heavier burst on some of these model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 back here the "blizzard" was a remarkably long duration event with 9 inches over like 30 hours and 8 of those hrs had dim sun and stray flurries....farther nw it was less snow for same duration....was easy breezy to keep up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This! I thought it looked good too, over 1" qpf for all in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Wow, GEFS pretty far north initially for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I think we should look at the set up. It is going to be a decent event for a lot of people. little waves bumping into a strong high and a serious temperature boundary can produce a lot of snow. Look at the fronto band from this morning. I don't think this is 3 days of periods of snow showers and 6" that sublimates by Tuesday morning. We don't need a strong low pressure to get a 6-12 hour period of 6-12 inches of snow. I think the models are already showing pretty high qpf and I think those numbers will go up as we get closer. For me the biggest problem might be a coastal the develops early and strong, and goes east, stealing the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Wow, GEFS pretty far north initially for Sunday. Meaning more plain rain in SNE or do we have icing potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Wow, GEFS pretty far north initially for Sunday. Tick, tick. Knew it was a red flag when the 12z GEFS were 100+ miles north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Meaning more plain rain in SNE or do we have icing potential? Starts as maybe a mix and then snow I would guess. Probably snow north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Congrats PF. Models doing that thing where they over-trend in the 48-72 hour time frame, only to correct themselves a touch back towards the original idea? You know what I mean... like one of these runs goes up to Montreal, but then settles back down into CNE at go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Peeps gotta get a grip. Did everyone ignore Wills post about the high pressing? Who cares what the gefs show. They re awful. Go with the idea everything comes back south over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The funny part is id love for the 18z GEFS to verify. Less snow on Sunday but get ripped on Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Models doing that thing where they over-trend in the 48-72 hour time frame, only to correct themselves a touch back towards the original idea? You know what I mean... like one of these runs goes up to Montreal, but then settles back down into CNE at go time. Regardless of what guidance has, The overrunning stuff IMO is more CNE and NNE. The coastal low is what I am unsure of. This whole setup is convoluted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm sure this has already been discussed but I've been at work all day, the spread is pretty remarkable on the EC ensembles for Monday and Tuesday with only a few members out of 51 taking the SLP to the benchmark. To those who have wxbell, the new graphic for the Euro Ensembles to see every single ensemble member 1-51 with MSLP, precip, and 0°, 32°, 35° contour is a nice update. Available east and west graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Peeps gotta get a grip. Did everyone ignore Wills post about the high pressing? Who cares what the gefs show. They re awful. Go with the idea everything comes back south over the next 24 hours I don't disagree with you, the trend appears over last 2 weeks with models showing a northern trend, and fall back with 24-36hrs of the event. I guess we will have to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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