tamarack Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't know how much you can sugar coat a 48hr+ light snow event, Its really not very significant even if we get a foot, Its like a 0.25/hr avg After 10 hr of falling snow yesterday produced 0.5" (from 0.04" LE), I'm all in for 1/4"/hr. GFS clown maps are interesting - big accum for most of SNE/CNE, and close to a foot even in my neck of the woods, though qpf suggests about half that much for here. All snow is good snow. It's gonna be in bursts. You think you are going to avg .25"/hr straight? LOL. But it could happen, though my example is from nearly 45 years ago. KNYC 2/14/70...25...15...0.13"...1.1" 2/15/70...32...23...0.38"...2.3" About 40 hr of what appeared to be utterly constant light snow, consistency of white cornmeal. In NNJ we got a bit less, about 3.0", with temps rising from teens to low 20s during precip. Totally calm, too. I've no idea whether the synoptic set-up had any resemblance to the upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It sounded like you guys were just shrugging it off in a meh fashion. No biggie. Mahk's HPC fetish is going to make him bald soon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow, I'm not complaining at all, A comment was made to GYX's take as being underwhelming for this event, And over the long period i don't see where they should honk it up, Am i being wrong here? I guess I thought they were being super casual yesterday and today. They are saying 6-8 inches in a 36 hour period (before the coastal). Is that what model qpf is showing? It would seem this set up would have high ratios, no? So what may look like light to mod snow might actually be heavier. Monday-Tuesday is still tbd. All that being said, this isn't causing me to book a trip home from Savannah. I do think though that 12-18 inches in 60 hours is a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I guess I thought they were being super casual yesterday and today. They are saying 6-8 inches in a 36 hour period (before the coastal). Is that what model qpf is showing? It would seem this set up would have high ratios, no? So what may look like light to mod snow might actually be heavier. Monday-Tuesday is still tbd. All that being said, this isn't causing me to book a trip home from Savannah. I do think though that 12-18 inches in 60 hours is a significant storm. Yeah, The jury is still out on the Mon-Tues time frame, May start to see where that is headed today at 12z and if not 0z, Ratios should be ok as long as the snow growth is, It sucked for growth here yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 After 10 hr of falling snow yesterday produced 0.5" (from 0.04" LE), I'm all in for 1/4"/hr. GFS clown maps are interesting - big accum for most of SNE/CNE, and close to a foot even in my neck of the woods, though qpf suggests about half that much for here. All snow is good snow. Its is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 SUN NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE MOST ROBUST JET IMPULSE AND INDUCE A MODEST TO STRONG FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE OH VLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS EASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MON NIGHT. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TREND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC PROVIDES MOIST POLAR MARITIME INFLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND...YIELDING MODEST ONSHORE WIND ANOMALIES /COLD CONVEYOR BELT -CCB/ AT 925 AND 850. THIS MODEST TO STRONG ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING /POSSIBLY DRIFTING/ SNOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN MA. LOW RISK THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE MAY CREEP ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTH COAST. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME RANGE. VERY SURPRISING THE LACK OF SPREAD HERE GIVEN FORECAST TIME IS STILL 72+ HRS AWAY. REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES /EPS/ HAS A LARGE SWATH OF 4-8" SUN NGT INTO EARLY TUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CT-RI NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THE UKMET IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AXIS ALONG MA PIKE SOUTHWARD INTO CT-RI. EPS IS FARTHEST NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH. STILL TOO EARLY TO FOCUS SPECIFICS BUT NEVERTHELESS LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6-12" FROM SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. From some of the posts here about warmth, you would think this would be a driving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Congrats BOS on the UKMET, lol. That would be fun for the city. ukmet_tprecip_neng_121.png Is that E Mass precip as snow or is there a mix? And congrats to PF on the second jack area right on top of him. Here is the relevant BTV AFD from the overnight: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 336 AM EST FRIDAY...WITH MEDIUM/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN IT`S LOOKING PRETTY LIKELY WE`RE IN FOR A SNOWY AND QUITE COLD EXTENDED PERIOD. A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SET UP FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL KEEP A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EXPECTED LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP THROW SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY WITH THE LATEST MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL, DAILY QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT OVER TIME (72 HRS: SAT-MON) WILL ADD UP TO ABOUT A HALF TO 1" OF LIQUID. WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK OPTIMAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WITH SLR`S LIKELY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FAST ON ITS HEELS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 From some of the posts here about warmth, you would think this would be a driving rainstorm. I'm not sure anyone away from the immediate coast sniffs freezing in this. Regardless of dry slots or mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Unless you're just outside of the mesoscale convergence Coastal front location will be crucial. Boring would be to me in winter 35 sunny calm. Any event which has nuances, tricky bls ,requiring good analytic skills is not boring. I am not concerned with IMBY snow totals this time as much as I am interested in the Meteorology for our general region. Having to work in a sometimes different climate than at home its often challenging to figure out what to expect. I realize my circumstances and views are different than most as I have to be cognizant of changing conditions as my profession requires it. For those who are looking for high impact quickly accumulating snows this might not be your type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Boring would be to me in winter 35 sunny calm. Any event which has nuances, tricky bls ,requiring good analytic skills is not boring. I am not concerned with IMBY snow totals this time as much as I am interested in the Meteorology for our general region. Having to work in a sometimes different climate than at home its often challenging to figure out what to expect. I realize my circumstances and views are different than most as I have to be cognizant of changing conditions as my profession requires it. For those who are looking for high impact quickly accumulating snows this might not be your type of event. I'm fine with a foot plus over 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It sounded like you guys were just shrugging it off in a meh fashion. No biggie. Mahk's HPC fetish is going to make him bald soon. Well I was discussing GYX not HPC. But HPC looks underwhelmed also. Of course, the professionals will likely be right as they usually are.... Btw I am as bald as Keven and have been for 12 years. I think March 01 was when it started to happen, as I watched a 3 ft hyped storm become flurries in Fluffya (Philadelphia) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Kev check the banter thread, I 84 strikes again yea Ray a foot in 4 days would be cool no matter how it falls, we are just in the zone this year a Bradyish 24-25 372 zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well I was discussing GYX not HPC. But HPC looks underwhelmed also. Of course, the professionals will likely be right as they usually are.... Btw I am as bald as Keven and have been for 12 years. I think March 01 was when it started to happen, as I watched a 3 ft hyped storm become flurries in Fluffya (Philadelphia) LOL i was gonna say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. Is that model better with convection during the summer? I mean, ther emust be a reason they run it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. lol it finally realizes that H85 temps won't go above freezing up to Montpelier-North Conway area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Still lost I think, but finding the trail path back to base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Still lost I think, but finding the trail path back to base. Yeah still congrats Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No other model has the closed H7 low tracking through central Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM finally getting a clue. Actually, that's the start of today's South Trend™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It started out south and shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Is that model better with convection during the summer? I mean, ther emust be a reason they run it... They need to keep the parts manufacturers for Commodore 64's in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 They need to keep the parts manufacturers for Commodore 64's in business I thought it was Atari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 9-14 inches for ORH over 4 days? With all that we have on the ground and the huge snow piles on every street corner it is significant, but definitely can be coped with. I'm going out to clean up near the cars and on the walk, but I doubt this even cancels school during the period--unless there is more than expected or the roads get really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 9-14 inches for ORH over 4 days? With all that we have on the ground and the huge snow piles on every street corner it is significant, but definitely can be coped with. I'm going out to clean up near the cars and on the walk, but I doubt this even cancels school during the period--unless there is more than expected or the roads get really bad. Yea, it's a nuisance given what has occured over the course of the last two weeks, but its nothing that will significantly disrupt life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM is stronger with the HP press for round 1 and ticks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Only goes to sunday but not bad 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow that was a nice shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM is stronger with the HP press for round 1 and ticks colder. It has pretty decent snow over SNE for late Sat night/early Sunday morning. But yeah, def a tick south of the 06z run at 54h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Man, RGEM gives e MA the f#ck you, btwn waa and coastal. Hope that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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