Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 BOX starts us off..and yes we do need more * PERIODS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SAT-SUN* A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-TUEYES...MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL COULD OCCURSAT-TUE...AND IT COULD REALLY PILE UP. AS IF WE NEED MORE!THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ASSHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ONE WILL DO SO ONSATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY...BOTH ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODSOF SNOW. CURRENT SNOWFALL PREDICTION IS FOR A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ONSAT AND 2-4 INCHES ON SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 BOX starts us off * PERIODS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW SAT-SUN * A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-TUE YES...MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY. A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR SAT-TUE...AND IT COULD REALLY PILE UP. AS IF WE NEED MORE! THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ONE WILL DO SO ON SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY...BOTH ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF SNOW. CURRENT SNOWFALL PREDICTION IS FOR A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ON SAT AND 2-4 INCHES ON SUNDAY. I wouldn't exactly say that 3-6 is really piling up, especially over 2 days. Nice amounts, but I don't think "piling up" is a good descriptive for up to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I wouldn't exactly say that 3-6 is really piling up, especially over 2 days. Nice amounts, but I don't think "piling up" is a good descriptive for up to 6". Well that's only for rounds 1 and 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The rest of the BOX disco. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST COAST MON-TUE. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT INSHOWING THIS FEATURE SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THEARCTIC FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND THE DETERMINISTICRUNS SHOW THE LOW CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCURACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS AWIDE PLACEMENT OF LOW POSITIONS. THE TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIESTSNOWFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT AS THE LOWDEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE MODELCONSENSUS HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY. STILL...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAINTHE DOMINANT P-TYPE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN-SNOW LINE TO MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPE/SEMASS LATE MONDAY...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS TOCOME. A LOT CAN CHANGE AS THIS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS OVER THEPACIFIC OCEAN AND IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA UNTILEARLY SATURDAY...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED.DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FOOT ORMORE OF SNOW PILING UP OVER THE PERIOD SAT-TUE. WHILE POSSIBLE...ALLWILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAYTUNED.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE-WED. THISHIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN WED NIGHT-THU...SENDING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A BRIEFPERIOD OF SNOW POSSIBLE MID WEEK. ARCTIC COLD IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXTWEEK AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPS DIVING TO BELOW -20C BY NEXTWEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Morning AFD from GYX mentioned the possibility of a 3-day snow event producing 3" (that's "inches", not a typo), for a different take on the old water torture. Wisely, the PM crew omitted mention of accum, until closer to the event(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS edges north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS edges north again. Maybe the NAM is on to something.....with continued trends north....maybe rain to the NH border by go-time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Maybe the NAM is on to something.....with continued trends north....maybe rain to the NH border by go-time? Not sure there is enough time...the amount it went north was like 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sounds like model noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not sure there is enough time...the amount it went north was like 20 miles. Will ,do you think that the GFS is onto something with the amount of shadowing that it is showing over the Connecticut River Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sounds like model noise North ticks are real IMHO...all guidance is doing it, not just a couple random runs. But the big question is whether that continues going forward or if we level off/sag back south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's an undeniable trend. Relentless, at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 That s/w east of Hudson Bay isn't digging as much so the best confluence bumps a bit north. That sfc high still noses in quite well, but it doesn't have the same punch it did in earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The north trend is real. Let's just hope guidance is underplaying the high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I wouldn't mind giving up on the overunning if it means a better coastal Though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Man the southern Greens are going to get lit up. Looking better up here though, we'll see where the ticks take us in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I wouldn't mind giving up on the overunning if it means a better coastal Though. Live your best life, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The move north a bit doesn't mean no snow in Sne. It seems like some folks think that or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I wouldn't mind giving up on the overunning if it means a better coastal Though. Well you don't want the overrunning too far north, because then the boundary is north which means so will the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The move north a bit doesn't mean no snow in Sne. It seems like some folks think that or somethingNo, we are stealing your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Man, I'm afraid to see the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Are you worried of no snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The move north a bit doesn't mean no snow in Sne. It seems like some folks think that or something No it doesn't. It may mean the best snows may be north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll peak at 0z but more north ticks and I'm ready to slam the door shut and close the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 No it doesn't. It may mean the best snows may be north thoughbut who cares really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 There is no one on here that has said there is no snow south or no snow north so its time to drop those notions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No it doesn't. It may mean the best snows may be north though And it most likely implies liquid down here..since the boundary will be further north. Not expecting much at this point, given today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And it most likely implies liquid down here..since the boundary will be further north. Not expecting much at this point, given today's runs.This was my fear from the beginning after Monday's debacle. I'll tell you I'm not a met but the lack of a -NAO is screwing with us S. Coast and NYC peeps IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Lol at the weenie comments in here. 18z GFS looks pretty darn good for all of SNE and into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Are you worried of no snow? LolI'll be brutally honest with you, and some will get aggravated with me...fine. I'm afraid of this turning into like a 6" event drawn out over like 3-4 days. That is worst case imby, imho. We are only a shift or two from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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