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coldest 30 day stretch of the winter


uncle W

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since January 6th KNYC has averaged 28.3...last year had a 30 day period averaging 28.5...

coldest 30 day periods...1917-18 has the coldest period averaging 19.0 from 12/28/17-1/26/18...earlier years will be added later on...many had very cold periods in the mid to low 20's especially the 1800's...recent years coldest period goes to 1976-77 and 1980-81...2003-04 averaged 22.5...1997-98 has the highest total averaging 37.3...2011-12 managed a period averaging 37.0...2001-02 had one averaging 35.4...January 6-10th was the coldest five days of the winter...If the cold temperatures this week and next continues we could see a colder period from mid January to Mid February...

1929-30..........28.8

1930-31..........31.9
1931-32..........35.8
1932-33..........33.9
1933-34..........19.6
1934-35..........24.3
1935-36..........20.4
1936-37..........34.9
1937-38..........31.4
1938-39..........29.3
1939-40..........24.9...10yr ave...27.64

1940-41..........28.8
1941-42..........29.0
1942-43..........28.7
1943-44..........28.8
1944-45..........23.8
1945-46..........31.4
1946-47..........29.3
1947-48..........21.5
1948-49..........36.3
1949-50..........31.6...10yr ave...28.92

1950-51..........33.0
1951-52..........31.9
1952-53..........35.5
1953-54..........30.3
1954-55..........28.6
1955-56..........27.6
1956-57..........27.8
1957-58..........28.1
1958-59..........28.5
1959-60..........30.3...10yr ave...30.16

1960-61..........24.6
1961-62..........30.9
1962-63..........25.9
1963-64..........31.1
1964-65..........28.0
1965-66..........28.5
1966-67..........28.6
1967-68..........25.1

1968-69..........30.4
1969-70..........24.0...10yr ave...27.71

1970-71..........24.2
1971-72..........28.6
1972-73..........32.0
1973-74..........32.3
1974-75..........33.0
1975-76..........27.1
1976-77..........21.9
1977-78..........26.2
1978-79..........26.0
1979-80..........30.9...10yr ave...28.22

 

1980-81..........22.2
1981-82..........25.2
1982-83..........32.9
1983-84..........26.1
1984-85..........27.5
1985-86..........31.0
1986-87..........29.3
1987-88..........28.3
1988-89..........32.4
1989-90..........25.3...10yr ave...29.02

1990-91..........34.5
1991-92..........30.3
1992-93..........31.0
1993-94..........23.5
1994-95..........31.5
1995-96..........27.7
1996-97..........31.7
1997-98..........37.3*** warmest
1998-99..........31.3
1999-00..........26.2...10yr ave...30.50

2000-01..........29.9
2001-02..........35.4
2002-03..........25.9
2003-04..........22.5
2004-05..........29.5
2005-06..........33.5
2006-07..........25.8
2007-08..........35.7
2008-09..........27.9
2009-10..........31.6...10yr ave...29.77

2010-11..........28.1
2011-12..........37.0

2012-13..........31.5

2013-14..........28.5

2014-15..........23.9

2015-16..........34.4

2016-17..........35.5...12/10 to 1/9...

1930-15..........29.1

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Interesting. Cooling and warming look cyclical, not linear from data.

1948-49 to 1953-54 had their coldest periods above 30.0...the 1990's had seven years...1999-2000 had a period averaging 26.2...the other 60 days of the winter averaged 42.2...2006-07 had a 30 days averaging 25.8...The rest of the winter averaged around 42 degrees...1977-78 averaged 26.2 for 30 days...The other 60 days averaged about 32 degrees...some years were cold for a short time...

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1948-49 to 1953-54 had their coldest periods above 30.0...the 1990's had seven years...1999-2000 had a period averaging 26.2...the other 60 days of the winter averaged 42.2...2006-07 had a 30 days averaging 25.8...The rest of the winter averaged around 42 degrees...1977-78 averaged 26.2 for 30 days...The other 60 days averaged about 32 degrees...some years were cold for a short time...

Others such as 1993-4, 1995-6, 2002-3, 2010-1 and 2013-4 were pretty close to wire-to-wire cold. I suspect we'll see more of those as "cold phase" gains duration.
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January 6th max 22 and min 19 drops off and yesterdays 42/14 is added on... +15.0 going forward...January 7th max/min was 23/9...today will add to the +15 going forward...it will have to be colder in the 11th-20th period for the coldest 30 days coming late January to late February...January 8th max/min was 21/8...The January 6th to February 4th period is probably going to be the coldest 30 day period this winter at 28.3 degrees unless we see another cold wave like we had in early January...

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Uncle do you think we have a chance of nyc hitting 0 or below zero next Friday? Especially if we get some more snow this Monday ?

I don't think so...it would be significant if KNYC gets into single digits...every day is a new forecast...last year had a low of 9 late in February...I'd like to see a negative ao/nao on the long range because todays forecast is not encouraging...it's been a cold winter without the help of a negative arctic oscillation...the pna is forecast to be positive which should keep the cold coming for now...

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  • 3 weeks later...

since January 6th KNYC has averaged 28.3...last year had a 30 day period averaging 28.5...

coldest 30 day periods...1917-18 has the coldest period averaging 19.0 from 12/28/17-1/26/18...earlier years will be added later on...many had very cold periods in the mid to low 20's especially the 1800's...recent years coldest period goes to 1976-77 and 1980-81...2003-04 averaged 22.5...1997-98 has the highest total averaging 37.3...2011-12 managed a period averaging 37.0...2001-02 had one averaging 35.4...January 6-10th was the coldest five days of the winter...If the cold temperatures this week and next continues we could see a colder period from mid January to Mid February...

1929-30..........28.8

1930-31..........31.9

1931-32..........35.8

1932-33..........33.9

1933-34..........19.6

1934-35..........24.3

1935-36..........20.4

1936-37..........34.9

1937-38..........31.4

1938-39..........29.3

1939-40..........24.9...10yr ave...27.64

1940-41..........28.8

1941-42..........29.0

1942-43..........28.7

1943-44..........28.8

1944-45..........23.8

1945-46..........31.4

1946-47..........29.3

1947-48..........21.5

1948-49..........36.3

1949-50..........31.6...10yr ave...28.92

1950-51..........33.0

1951-52..........31.9

1952-53..........35.5

1953-54..........30.3

1954-55..........28.6

1955-56..........27.6

1956-57..........27.8

1957-58..........28.1

1958-59..........28.5

1959-60..........30.3...10yr ave...30.16

1960-61..........24.6

1961-62..........30.9

1962-63..........25.9

1963-64..........31.1

1964-65..........28.0

1965-66..........28.5

1966-67..........28.6

1967-68..........25.1

1968-69..........30.4

1969-70..........24.0...10yr ave...27.71

1970-71..........24.2

1971-72..........28.6

1972-73..........32.0

1973-74..........32.3

1974-75..........33.0

1975-76..........27.1

1976-77..........21.9

1977-78..........26.2

1978-79..........26.0

1979-80..........30.9...10yr ave...28.22

 

1980-81..........22.2

1981-82..........25.2

1982-83..........32.9

1983-84..........26.1

1984-85..........27.5

1985-86..........31.0

1986-87..........29.3

1987-88..........28.3

1988-89..........32.4

1989-90..........25.3...10yr ave...29.02

1990-91..........34.5

1991-92..........30.3

1992-93..........31.0

1993-94..........23.5

1994-95..........31.5

1995-96..........27.7

1996-97..........31.7

1997-98..........37.3*** warmest

1998-99..........31.3

1999-00..........26.2...10yr ave...30.50

2000-01..........29.9

2001-02..........35.4

2002-03..........25.9

2003-04..........22.5

2004-05..........29.5

2005-06..........33.5

2006-07..........25.8

2007-08..........35.7

2008-09..........27.9

2009-10..........31.6...10yr ave...29.77

2010-11..........28.1

2011-12..........37.0

2012-13..........31.5

2013-14..........28.5

2014-15..........23.9

 

1930-15..........29.1

the last 30 days 1/26 to 2/24 averaged 24.0 in KNYC...This ties for ninth place for a coldest 30 day period since 1934...

ave temp  dates...

19.6.....1/30 to 2/28 1934

20.4.....1/23 to 2/21 1936

21.5.....1/14 to 2/12 1948

21.9.....1/03 to 2/01 1977

22.2.....12/20-1/18 1980-81

22.5.....1/06 to 2/04 2004

23.5.....12/25-1/23 1993-94

23.8.....1/03 to 2/01 1945

23.9.....1/31-3/01/2015

24.0.....12/26-1/24 1969-70

24.2.....12/22-1/20 1970-71

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