dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z GEM ensembles look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol. Good luck. Even if you don't get destroyed, you might as well stay for the snow. In the grand scheme of things, missing class on Monday's not that big of a deal. Thanks I agree. It's February 6. A couple of more weeks before March. And although it's unlikely this year, you still never know when the next March 2010 or March 2012 is around the corner. Gotta savor every flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Mike can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The HRRR continues to remain adamant on easterly Lehs with a GTA jackpot for wave 1. It should come in and out quickly(~5am-10am) but could pack some moderate to heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Mike can feel it. Why couldn't this come on Tuesday. I have a midterm on Tuesday, lol. Probably the hardest of the semester so far, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. Spoken like a true weather fanatic. Way to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. YES ... now you've done ... SW trend cometh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 YES ... now you've done ... SW trend cometh!! probably. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 probably. lol. Like I said, 8" would do me, but a foot would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 0Z Nam still north and West of the city with the 2nd wave. Has a quick hitting 6-7cm with the initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 After progress at 18z, NAM going the other direction now. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 After progress at 18z, NAM going the other direction now. My bad. 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 After progress at 18z, NAM going the other direction now. My bad. Yup 00Z looks more like the the 12Z out to 36 hours than the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Eastern Ontario special as per the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Not good obviously, but these models have been bouncing more than Pam Anderson. Very hard to pin down a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Given the NAM has been more of a north outlier recently, not going to complain with it being so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What a terrible model the nam is. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 And yes baroclinic zones are tricky to pin down. Anyways on to the rgem and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Given the NAM has been more of a north outlier recently, not going to complain with it being so close. Might still try to produce for us on wave 3. It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wave three is well north of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Pam Anderson Back in the day, that was DT's call for a storm that busted. You might want to go Kate Upton instead. Anyways, never easy with these convoluted set-ups. Hoping for the best for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Back in the day, that was DT's call for a storm that busted. You might want to go Kate Upton instead. Anyways, never easy with these convoluted set-ups. Hoping for the best for you guys. I was actually thinking about that luscious brunette from "2 Broke Girls" but I couldn't remember her name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 What a terrible model the nam is. Jeez It pretty much nailed the most recent storm. I mean, we can't call a model terrible just because it doesn't show what we want... the event hasn't even happened yet--how can it be terrible? This is very much a thread-the-needle situation... NAM shifted north a bit. Pretty common for a model to shift slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Some more moderate snows starting to develop in the region around 60 hours on 0z Nam with the 3rd wave. Initial wave is still well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wave three is well north of the GTA. You got to let it play out. 60-66 are pretty good for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Including all three waves the Nam shows ~10-15cm (4-6") for the GTA. Baroclinic zone is a bit too far West so the East end of the GTA sees closer to 15cm compared to 10cm in the West end. No real difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 It pretty much nailed the most recent storm. I mean, we can't call a model terrible just because it doesn't show what we want... the event hasn't even happened yet--how can it be terrible? This is very much a thread-the-needle situation... NAM shifted north a bit. Pretty common for a model to shift slightly. NAM tends to me more lol-worthy than other models from my experience. Just anecdotal. No evidence to back me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 You got to let it play out. 60-66 are pretty good for the GTA. Maybe 2-3" in those 5-6 hours. The initial wave is 2-3". 2nd wave is a bummer as is the first half of the 3rd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Maybe 2-3" in those 5-6 hours. The initial wave is 2-3". 2nd wave is a bummer as is the first half of the 3rd wave. Indeed. I thought it might be a little better with the 3rd wave than it was. But...it's the NAM. I wouldn't lose much sleep over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 If RGEM goes north, I'm taking the midnight drive to London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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