OntarioChaser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know neighbouring NWS stations collaborate with one another but does EC and the neighbouring NWS talk? It just seems weird when Niagara Falls ON has a SWS for a potential of some freezing rain but right across the river in Niagara Falls NY there is a winter storm watch for 7+ inches of snow. Someones forecast isn't going to pan out and generally I see the NWS being correct with EC issuing the warnings when the event has started The SWS from EC is for the wave tomorrow night with the frz rain potential. The WSW across the border has been issued for the big "grande finale" low Sunday afternoon into late Monday. So these two things are for separate events and I suspect EC issue WSW's soon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wave 1 on the HRRR. Band propagating from NW-SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The SWS from EC is for the wave tomorrow night with the frz rain potential. The WSW across the border has been issued for the big "grande finale" low Sunday afternoon into late Monday. So these two things are for separate events and I suspect EC issue WSW's soon as well. Wouldn't count on it with all the uncertainty. They can't bring themselves to hoist a watch when there's relative consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just got home from work. Looks to be an interesting weekend weatherwise. Hoping for at least 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The latest RGEM is looking good for the GTA. Wave 3 can be seen developing in the last frame or two of the run. By then a general 5-7" has fallen (not including wave 3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Bullseye run for YYZ on the 18z GFS through 36. If wave three comes in further to the north we may see some pretty snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Bullseye run for YYZ on the 18z GFS through 36. If wave three comes in further to the north we may see some pretty snowfall maps. Wave 2 further South and wave 3 further North on the GFS. If we thought 12z was a good run... EDIT: Easily over 1.00" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wave 2 further South and wave 3 further North on the GFS. If we thought 12z was a good run... Demolished. Absolutely demolished. And I'm supposed to go back to London tonight. I have no idea what to do right now. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Demolished. Absolutely demolished. And I'm supposed to go back to London tonight. I have no idea what to do right now. lol.When can we start taking these runs for real?I mean this isn't the first time the models have been hammering an 1.00 QPF for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Demolished. Absolutely demolished. And I'm supposed to go back to London tonight. I have no idea what to do right now. lol. A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table to an extent. On 1.4" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table. Exciting times ahead. 18z RGEM metrogram as snowfall map isn't out yet on meteocenter. Wave 3 still continuing so these are without the final totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 When can we start taking these runs for real? I mean this isn't the first time the models have been hammering an 1.00 QPF for this system. Lol... ~1.5" of QPF at YYZ of the 18z GFS. I think you have to toss it. But man 'o man: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table to an extent. On 1.4" of liquid. USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_075.gif Save that image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table to an extent. On 1.4" of liquid. USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_075.gif Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that patches of 50cm (20") in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 ninja'd by Bliz96. Save those maps in the "in your dreams" folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z RGEM through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 'k...I've decided to be altruistic boys. Going to go back to London. With me gone the wx gods will likely make the 18z GFS come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that patches of 50cm (20") in Toronto? With the weenie ratios... yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 'k...I've decided to be altruistic boys. Going to go back to London. With me gone the wx gods will likely make the 18z GFS come to fruition. How selfless of you ... of course now secretly you will be asking for a SSSW ... Sudden Shift SouthWest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 How selfless of you ... of course now secretly you will be asking for a SSSW ... Sudden Shift SouthWest lol, possibly. I've seen a million clown maps in my day, not one has verified, so as much as I'm rooting for my boys in the T dot, got more than a few doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Another request Toronto posters...if by some 1 in 1 million shot the 18z GFS verifies, please, please, PLEASE, for the love of god, take pics. Thnx. Off I go back to the Forest City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table to an extent. On 1.4" of liquid. USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_075.gif WOOOW. Those totals for KW through to the GTA are absolutely insane. Not to mention that the NAM is even more amped up than the GFS....that map has 50cm right over my house at the northern limits of Hamilton.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 A lot would have to work out perfectly in order for that to happen... but its certainly on the table to an extent. On 1.4" of liquid. USA_ASNOWPER_sfc_075.gif Still in the game here. Right around that 10" line Oops thats in CM more like 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Demolished. Absolutely demolished. And I'm supposed to go back to London tonight. I have no idea what to do right now. lol. We have plenty of snow here....so it should still look wintry. By the end of the weekend tho', TO may be winning in the snow dept. But yeah, I get it - missing a big snowfall is hard to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. Atta boy Mike! Glad you decided to stick around for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Atta boy Mike! Glad you decided to stick around for this one. 1st class of semester is usually lame anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. Nice to have you here. Now the BZ has to do its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 **** it. Sorry boyz. Changed my mind. Way I figure it, if a GFSesque solution pans out, it's worth missing class on Monday. If not, GEM and EURO have the snow ending Sunday evening I can still leave first thing Monday. It's only a 1 3/4 hr drive. No matter how remote the chance, I'll never forgive myself if I miss a big dog. Lol. Good luck. Even if you don't get destroyed, you might as well stay for the snow. In the grand scheme of things, missing class on Monday's not that big of a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nice to have you here. Now the BZ has to do its thing. 18z GFS is the looker, but the 18z NAM also came in stronger with the 3rd wave, and the RGEM trended south with the 2nd wave. Lotta subtle and not so subtle moves this afternoon that are in our favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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