Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yup. OB is closest to the sweep spot. Dan and I gotta start sweating it out, although, verbatim, it's still a very nice hit. One of my friends is expecting 5-10 cm in total over the weekend. They may be in for a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yup. OB is closest to the sweep spot. Dan and I gotta start sweating it out, although, verbatim, it's still a very nice hit even here. Believe me I'd be fine with 6-12'' of snow even if the eastern sections get like 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Believe me I'd be fine with 6-12'' of snow even if the eastern sections get like 12-16". You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 You sure? Lol yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Other than slight NE shifts, the GFS has been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It will be interesting to see how Environment Canada handles this. I wonder if they issue a special weather statement tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 0z GGEM looks like a solid hit for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 0z GGEM looks like a solid hit for the GTA. Not really. Coming too far north and not as robust with the last wave. Showing max 6-7" for GTA now opposed to the around 12" it was showing the other day. Hopefully things trend better for us tomorrow, but we might be looking at rain mixing in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Based on the 6z GFS, waves 1 (Sat AM) and 3 (late Sunday into Monday AM) are decent to great hits, especially 3. Wave 2 (Sat night) is somewhat weaker and further NE. All in all, a fantastic run for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z euro has 0.7-0.8" of QPF with ~0.2" from wave 1, 0.1" from wave 2 and 0.5" from wave 3. The GFS has ~0.9". Numbers are a bit higher east of the 403. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 6z GEFS have a much better look. The GEPS look solid as well with the heaviest snows across the NE GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 At least with wave 1 we may be coming into better agreement. Even the NAM shifted that wave south a touch at 6z. Looks good for a solid 2-4". Wave 2 might end up being a whiff here. Gotta give the SREFS/NAM/GEFs massive props if that ends up being the case. Not often you see those short-bus models school the EURO and GFS. Wave 3 looks good for a solid moderate snowfall here. I'm thinking 4-6" as a preliminary number. So the massive numbers look to stay NE, from Georgian Bay to around Kingston, but should still be a profitable weekend down here. Good news is that I think we've maxed out this north trend. Maybe we'll start to see a slight shift back to the south to fit climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Even the very far north, and likely wrong, NAM gets the 6" line down to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 6Z GFS gave me a bit more hope with the 3rd wave. 6Z NAM was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 6Z GFS gave me a bit more hope with the 3rd wave. 6Z NAM was a disaster Hang in there Roy. Fast moving, low amplitude waves (more like ripples) in the ul flow are giving the models fits. Could still see a few more surprises. Although...that cuts both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 At least with wave 1 we may be coming into better agreement. Even the NAM shifted that wave south a touch at 6z. Looks good for a solid 2-4". Wave 2 might end up being a whiff here. Gotta give the SREFS/NAM/GEFs massive props if that ends up being the case. Not often you see those short-bus models school the EURO and GFS. Wave 3 looks good for a solid moderate snowfall here. I'm thinking 4-6" as a preliminary number. So the massive numbers look to stay NE, from Georgian Bay to around Kingston, but should still be a profitable weekend down here. Good news is that I think we've maxed out this north trend. Maybe we'll start to see a slight shift back to the south to fit climo. Can't disagree with your thoughts. I am thinking we can see a slight adjustment south with wave 2 but we will see. Snow should begin to fall in less than 24hrs so the boundary/BZ will be pretty clear by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 BUF likes the GFS/EURO camp... WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WE CAN EXPECT...THESE WILLGREATLY HINGE UPON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE MAIN SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIVIDED INTOTWO MAIN CAMPS...WITH THE NAM/GEM GLOBAL SUGGESTING A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK TO THE LOW AND CONSEQUENTLY A FURTHER NORTHERLY FRONTALPOSITION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARMINGOF THE COLUMN TO INTRODUCE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS ATLEAST PART OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. IN CONTRAST...THEGFS/ECMWF ARE NOTABLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH BOTH THE LOW TRACK AND THEMAIN SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNREMAINING SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE BULKOF OUR REGION...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THESOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ASTRONG ARCTIC HIGH PARKED TO THE NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THIS LATTER SCENARIO /WHICH ALSO HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM WPC AND OURPREVIOUS CONTINUITY/ APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE AT THEPRESENT TIME...AND HAVE THUS LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THIS INPUTTING TOGETHER THE CURRENT FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Can't disagree with your thoughts. I am thinking we can see a slight adjustment south with wave 2 but we will see. Snow should begin to fall in less than 24hrs so the boundary/BZ will be pretty clear by that time. Yup, I'm open to that possibility as well regarding wave 2. And wave three has the potential to be 6"+...I'm just hedging my bets until the NAM capitulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hang in there Roy. Fast moving, low amplitude waves (more like ripples) in the ul flow are giving the models fits. Could still see a few more surprises. Although...that cuts both ways It is hard when the models are updated to know exactly what the biases are anymore. It has been odd see this trend further NE. As outflow and I were saying yesterday normally the models hit (with these situations) at the warmth overspreading southern MI but typically the boundary doesn't make it this far north. One thing is typically the models would play catch-up and I am used to the NAM typically being the worse at overdoing the warmth. 6Z GFS was at least encouraging for MBY. That 3rd wave is one that if I do well you should do excellent! It would take an incredible shift south totally screw you (north ugg I can't see it going more north). The 1st and 2nd waves I am not in the right ball park right now Also keep in mind that with the major storm we just got even the NAM went a bit too far north (a couple run had the 22" bulleyes on MBY & even one up to Flint). Hopefully the 12Z package will give us some better results!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro/GFS still very decent around here. Still liking the LE potential with this one blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro/GFS still very decent around here. Still liking the LE potential with this one blizz? Models want to back winds a little more now and inversion heights look a little worse as well. Theres a window for LEhs between 0z sunday and 0z monday, but it won't be a pronounced band of LES IMO. EDIT: Also a Lehs risk with wave 3 from the hammer to Niagara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 EC calling for 17-28 cm as per Spotwx's data output of their forecast. Hey, I'll take a 40-50 cm snow pack any day given what it's been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We have a chance with wave 3 here SEMI especially north of the area. Sunday-> Monday could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We have a chance with wave 3 here SEMI especially north of the area. Sunday-> Monday could get interesting. The s/w's had trended to dig a bit deeper this season. In this setup that would make wave 3 pretty interesting for us. Right now I have very low expectations (DAB-1") but it sure would not take much of a change with that wave 3 to be a bit more formidable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Based on the black and white charts the 12z RGEM looks great for the region with Wave 1 and 2. Looks like a widespread 5-10cm (2-3") with the initial wave. I'm surprised EC hasn't even issued a special weather statement yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Nice south trend on the 12z RGEM. 12z GFS looks great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks like both wave 2 and wave 3 trended a touch south on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Weather Network has a snow map out pic.twitter.com/To95k9lp5p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Weather Network has a snow map out pic.twitter.com/To95k9lp5p Looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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