snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Big uptick from the 0.5" of QPF it had at 12z. Now all 3 major models(GFS/EC/UKM) have 20-30cm for the GTA. Still concerned about a north shift given some movement in that direction from the OPs/ENS members though synoptically it would make sense that it would trend S if anything. Synoptically this setup reminds me of some of the late winter/early spring snow/ice storms we've had in the past. I'm thinking April 2003, March 2007, and April 2013. Models in the day 2-4 range generally kept the stationary front too deep into the arctic air. With GFS progging sub -30c 850 temps over QC, this is surely an arctic high that has the potential to push the boundary further south. Furthermore, we don't have a strong upper level disturbance which would induce a strong WAA response and force the front back to the north. I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 What office is apx? Alpena? Basically. Gaylord, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 What office is apx? Alpena? It's Gaylord MI, but I believe some time ago it used to be Alpena but Gaylord took over for them and kept the apx code lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Synoptically this setup reminds me of some of the late winter/early spring snow/ice storms we've had in the past. I'm thinking April 2003, March 2007, and April 2013. Models in the day 2-4 range generally kept the stationary front too deep into the arctic air. With GFS progging sub -30c temps over QC, this is surely an arctic high that has the potential to push the boundary further south. Furthermore, we don't have a strong upper level disturbance which would induce a strong WAA response and force the front back to the north. I'm cautiously optimistic. If you go back and look at the last 8 runs or so of the GFS, it's been very consistent with the placement of the snow band. Besides the mets on the NE forum say that the n trend has most likely ceased. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Synoptically this setup reminds me of some of the late winter/early spring snow/ice storms we've had in the past. I'm thinking April 2003, March 2007, and April 2013. Models in the day 2-4 range generally kept the stationary front too deep into the arctic air. With GFS progging sub -30c 850 temps over QC, this is surely an arctic high that has the potential to push the boundary further south. Furthermore, we don't have a strong upper level disturbance which would induce a strong WAA response and force the front back to the north. I'm cautiously optimistic. Great points. Hopefully the synoptic pattern rules the day over volatile ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you go back and look at the last 8 runs or so of the GFS, it's been very consistent with the placement of the snow band. Besides the mets on the NE forum say that the n trend has most likely ceased. Here's hoping! Cool. I don't frequent that subforum anymore. Thanks for the info. Once we get the placement down pat we can start to focus on amounts. It's a long-fused event, but I believe 72 hr amounts of 12-16" are possible wherever the best f-gen banding/elevated instability sets up and overlaps over the course of the three events. Problem is that's going to be such a narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Something else to consider will be the LE potential along the W end of Lk On. The 18z GFS has flow just over 90 degrees from 0z Sun-0z Mon with good enough parameters(∆t's,saturation,strength of LL flow and inversion heights) to get a band developing from the Lk shore through the West end and perhaps towards midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Something else to consider will be the LE potential along the W end of Lk On. The 18z GFS has flow just over 90 degrees from 0z Sun-0z Mon with good enough parameters(∆t's,saturation,strength of LL flow and inversion heights) to get a band developing from the Lk shore through the West end and perhaps towards midtown. Inversion heights improved from 950mb? That's quite low although I've seen some minor stuff with that kind of cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Fwiw euro has similar amounts for Toronto like what the 18z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Inversion heights improved from 950mb? That's quite low although I've seen some minor stuff with that kind of cap. No improvements from this morning on either the GFS or NAM. It may not be enough to produce a single death band, but it should be enough to at least add some Lehs to the city via shallow banding. We saw how this ramped up totals significantly in and around YHM with the previous storm despite less than ideal inversion heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is shaping up to be a solid hit for the GTA and 401 corridor up through the Kitchener/Waterloo area as well, and into NY. Looks like 2 huge storms within one week here! I'll soon have some footage to share of the Hamilton blizzard on Sunday night! In my top 3 snowstorms easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS ensembles still north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS ensembles still north. Every member has at least 0.25" of QPF, 8/12 have 0.5"+ for YYZ and 4/12 have 0.75"+. Most members north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Every member has at least 0.25" of QPF, 8/12 have 0.5"+ for YYZ and 4/12 have 0.75"+. Most members north of the OP. Blizz, what are your initial thoughts for totals? Do you think we could see 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Big uptick from the 0.5" of QPF it had at 12z. Now all 3 major models(GFS/EC/UKM) have 20-30cm for the GTA. Still concerned about a north shift given some movement in that direction from the OPs/ENS members though synoptically it would make sense that it would trend S if anything. ok, how can I make the snow Gods to move the track south about 150 miles? LOL Good luck to all in the bullseye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Every member has at least 0.25" of QPF, 8/12 have 0.5"+ for YYZ and 4/12 have 0.75"+. Most members north of the OP. Do wish they'd at least creep south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Do wish they'd at least creep south a bit. Big spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM not buying the wildly north solution on the NAM/SREF suite. Dumps 2-3" on the GTA after wave 1 with wave 2 right on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM not buying the wildly north solution on the NAM/SREF suite. Dumps 2-3" on the GTA after wave 1 with wave 2 right on the doorstep. 18z or 0z? Regardless, the 0z NAM's not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z or 0z? Regardless, the 0z NAM's not budging. 18z. Looks like the 0z NAM is essentially holding serve with its north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think the SREF is tainted because of the ARW model which is extremely far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z. Looks like the 0z NAM is essentially holding serve with its north solution. Gotta admit, it's starting to scare me a bit. 0z run might actually go further north with the main baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gotta admit, it's starting to scare me a bit. 0z run might actually go further north with the main baroclinic zone. If other 00z models trend this way, then be worried but for now just think it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol at the nam. Rain for yyz. Temps are forecasted to be like -4 Saturday and -7 Sunday. Oh nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 If other 00z models trend this way, then be worried but for now just think it's the NAM. The NAM did pretty well with that last storm along with the UKMET. The ensembles for most of the models were hinting at a more northern track than the OP as well. ATM, I don't think any model is the NAM camp right? We'll see what the other 0z models say. The strong PV to the north will prevent this storm from going to far north. Its a tight gradient. YYZ riding the line again, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol at the nam. Rain for yyz. Temps are forecasted to be like -4 Saturday and -7 Sunday. Oh nam. By 66 it's so aberrant compared to the other models it's tough not to just throw it out. It does have some support from the GEFs though. It'll be interesting to see what the RGEM does in the next half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gotta admit, it's starting to scare me a bit. 0z run might actually go further north with the main baroclinic zone. Check and mate for me ... oh well ... hope you can cash in. Guess I'll be in the banter thread this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z NAM 18z GFS at the same time Way more amplification with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Lol at the nam. Rain for yyz. Temps are forecasted to be like -4 Saturday and -7 Sunday. Oh nam. I don't want rain but holy this snow cover would not budge at all if it rains and then freezes. We would lose a bit but then have a 5-6 inch glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Check and mate for me ... oh well ... hope you can cash in. Guess I'll be in the banter thread this weekend. Small but increasing chance I may be joining you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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