dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 All 12z guidance (except the NAM) shifted slightly north with the axis of snowfall. Now Toronto's on the southern fringe of the jackpot zone. Pattern still favours a slight southward correction so I'm not too concerned. I'm not sure about this anymore. Almost ready to punt this for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm not sure about this anymore. Almost ready to punt this for our area. Go see a psychiatrist. Get yourself a schizophrenia diagnosis. You rocket back and forth violently between derisive chastising of members who throw in the towel too early, and doing so yourself with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 All 12z guidance (except the NAM) shifted slightly north with the axis of snowfall. Now Toronto's on the southern fringe of the jackpot zone. Pattern still favours a slight southward correction so I'm not too concerned. The problem is the Friday night/Sat wave coming in weaker to the point where it doesn't push the boundary back to the SW. This allows the 0C 850s to move well into southern MI which is just NFG. The stronger wave later Sunday looks OK but still this is all depending on how things go the through Saturday. I want to keep that 0C 850 to my SW and I will take my chances from there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The problem is the Friday night/Sat wave coming in weaker to the point where it doesn't push the boundary back to the SW. This allows the 0C 850s to move well into southern MI which is just NFG. The stronger wave later Sunday looks OK but still this is all depending on how things go the through Saturday. I want to keep that 0C 850 to my SW and I will take my chances from there! Waiting for the EURO freebies to come out but it looks like it may have trended wetter with the final wave (Sunday aft-Sunday night). Going to be hard to get bullseyed on all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's a complex situation with three different waves. The new 12z Euro puts more emphasis on the 3rd wave late Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's a complex situation with three different waves. The new 12z Euro puts more emphasis on the 3rd wave late Sunday into Monday. Yes and it's that third wave that really does the damage. Total snowfall from all 3 waves: 7-10'' from wxbell maps. Oh and BTW Mike, yes I overreacted. I will try to be a better poster I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes and it's that third wave that really does the damage. Total snowfall from all 3 waves: 7-10'' from wxbell maps. Oh and BTW Mike, yes I overreacted. I will try to be a better poster I promise. Good. Because you realize you were considering punting when three posts about you Bo posted an up-to-date map which showed a foot of snow right over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes and it's that third wave that really does the damage. Total snowfall from all 3 waves: 7-10'' from wxbell maps. Oh and BTW Mike, yes I overreacted. I will try to be a better poster I promise. Only thing most want ... take the cancel storm and I hate this crap posts to the Banter thread. Great place to overreact all you want!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Waiting for the EURO freebies to come out but it looks like it may have trended wetter with the final wave (Sunday aft-Sunday night). Going to be hard to get bullseyed on all three. Actually I am/was not expecting to get bullseyed at all. Just want to keep that 0C line to my south and add some snow on top of my snow cover. Yesterday here was great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The problem is the Friday night/Sat wave coming in weaker to the point where it doesn't push the boundary back to the SW. This allows the 0C 850s to move well into southern MI which is just NFG. The stronger wave later Sunday looks OK but still this is all depending on how things go the through Saturday. I want to keep that 0C 850 to my SW and I will take my chances from there! It looks like a mixed bag here... ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sources I have deep in EURO headquarters say 1" QPF on the nose for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I had been thinking the models were too dry with almost no precip north of the main low pressure sunday into monday, it's nice to see the 12z Euro and GFS starting to put some precip there where you would think it should be. It's too bad the first couple waves are going way north as it looks like now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Go see a psychiatrist. Get yourself a schizophrenia diagnosis. You rocket back and forth violently between derisive chastising of members who throw in the towel too early, and doing so yourself with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Waiting for the EURO freebies to come out but it looks like it may have trended wetter with the final wave (Sunday aft-Sunday night). Going to be hard to get bullseyed on all three. Should be interesting to see how the lake responds to a slightly further north jog. OT a bit but I'm not sure whats happened to the Southern Ontario posters this winter. Its been an average winter and I would swear from reading comments that we are in a historically bad winter. Sorry about the rant but we live in Southern Ontario and people here should be accustomed to winters that fluctuate. Edit. Maybe I'm just getting too old to get upset if I get 6 inches instead of 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sources I have deep in EURO headquarters say 1" QPF on the nose for Toronto. Who are those sources? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Please forgive me but what is the consensus on the track of this one. Any southern nudge and there will be no where to put any more snow. I plan on trucking some out but time is of the essence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro looks fantastic from hours 90-110 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro looks fantastic from hours 90-110 here. If you don't mind can you post the eurowx snowmap. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you don't mind can you post the eurowx snowmap. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sources I have deep in EURO headquarters say 1" QPF on the nose for Toronto. Around 0.95-1.00 qpf for Toronto on the 12z Euro. I need to double check but i remember it was around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 As you would expect at this range euro ensemble means slightly drier for yyz. About 0.7 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 UKIE holding serve with 0.8"+ for TO with ~1" for YHM/Niagara by late Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 UKIE holding serve with 0.8"+ for TO with ~1" for YHM/Niagara by late Monday. Are there any free sites with UKIE precip data past 72hrs? I have never found one anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Are there any free sites with UKIE precip data past 72hrs? I have never found one anyways... Not that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not that I am aware of.Blizz do you buy this north trend on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 APX not buying the insanely far north SREFs, but does mention that southern gradient of snow could be tighter than currently progged: RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO WHATCONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RESPECTABLE SNOW EVENT LATER SATURDAYTHROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER JET FORCING/MID LEVEL SUPPORTCOLLOCATING WITH GOOD/EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL FGEN...ALL WORKING INCONCERT WITH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS UP AND OVER HALF ANINCH...WELL ABOVE CLIMATE NORMS) SHOULD DO THE TRICK. KINDA ENVISIONAN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED FGEN RESPONSE ANDHINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIVING A HEAVIER SNOW PRODUCINGBAND(S). ABOVE SURE OFFERS PLENTY OF INSIGHT WITH REGARDS TO SNOWPOTENTIAL...AND ONE SIMPLY GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITHGIVEN HIGHLY BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL. COULD EASILY SEE "HEADLINEWORTHY" SNOW AMOUNTS...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF A HALF FOOT IF BANDSREMAINS STEADY-STATE AND NON-TRANSIENT. NOW...SIMPLY CANNOT ANSWERPRECISELY WHERE THIS HEAVIER SNOW AXIS WILL SET-UP. DPROG/DTS OF ALLAVAILABLE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH A MAJORITY OFLOWER RES ENSEMBLES...CONTINUES TO TARGET AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OFTHE M-32 CORRIDOR. MOST DISCONCERTING...AT LEAST FROM A FORECASTERSPERSPECTIVE...IS STEADFAST SREF PROGS SHOWING A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVEWARM SURGE AND...AS SUCH...ALL DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS/FGEN SETTING UPWELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO! REALLY NOT BUYING THISIDEA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER PROGS. TOFURTHER COMPLICATE PLACEMENT MATTERS...HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW COULD BEVERY NARROW...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BETTER BANDINGREALLY LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE EVENT IS ACTUALLYUNFOLDING...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH HIGHER POPS AND SNOWACCUMULATIONS (A SIMPLE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL DO FOR NOW). NO DOUBTTHIS EVENT WILL REMAIN FODDER FOR OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHERPRODUCTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 18z GFS Big uptick from the 0.5" of QPF it had at 12z. Now all 3 major models(GFS/EC/UKM) have 20-30cm for the GTA. Still concerned about a north shift given some movement in that direction from the OPs/ENS members though synoptically it would make sense that it would trend S if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NWS KBUF has a very interesting forecast discussion on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 APX not buying the insanely far north SREFs, but does mention that southern gradient of snow could be tighter than currently progged: RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RESPECTABLE SNOW EVENT LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER JET FORCING/MID LEVEL SUPPORT COLLOCATING WITH GOOD/EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL FGEN...ALL WORKING IN CONCERT WITH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS UP AND OVER HALF AN INCH...WELL ABOVE CLIMATE NORMS) SHOULD DO THE TRICK. KINDA ENVISION AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED FGEN RESPONSE AND HINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIVING A HEAVIER SNOW PRODUCING BAND(S). ABOVE SURE OFFERS PLENTY OF INSIGHT WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL...AND ONE SIMPLY GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH GIVEN HIGHLY BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL. COULD EASILY SEE "HEADLINE WORTHY" SNOW AMOUNTS...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF A HALF FOOT IF BANDS REMAINS STEADY-STATE AND NON-TRANSIENT. NOW...SIMPLY CANNOT ANSWER PRECISELY WHERE THIS HEAVIER SNOW AXIS WILL SET-UP. DPROG/DTS OF ALL AVAILABLE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH A MAJORITY OF LOWER RES ENSEMBLES...CONTINUES TO TARGET AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. MOST DISCONCERTING...AT LEAST FROM A FORECASTERS PERSPECTIVE...IS STEADFAST SREF PROGS SHOWING A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WARM SURGE AND...AS SUCH...ALL DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS/FGEN SETTING UP WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO! REALLY NOT BUYING THIS IDEA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER PROGS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE PLACEMENT MATTERS...HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW COULD BE VERY NARROW...WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF BETTER BANDING REALLY LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES... WHICH UNFORTUNATELY MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE EVENT IS ACTUALLY UNFOLDING...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH HIGHER POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (A SIMPLE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL DO FOR NOW). NO DOUBT THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN FODDER FOR OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. What office is apx? Alpena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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