Jonger Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's gonna be a nail biter this weekend around my part of the subforum, looks like it will only take a day or two before a new hit of snow will fill back in whatever small amount of snow we could lose. It's still possible depth could be higher Monday morning, when compared to Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 They look very nice around here overall despite quite a bit of spread among members. The mean has ~0.7" of QPF with over 25 members going 6"+ for YYZ. EDIT: UKIE is all in as well. Decent pattern setting up for the next 1-2 weeks. The strong polar jetstream thanks to the weakly -NAO and +PNA, will allow for a more dominant northern stream pattern through mid month. The strong Pacific jetstream (evident on the wind maps), is going to enhance storm activity in the Pacific and this will aide in the development of clippers as they come onshore across the West Coast. I think this could be a nice 4"+ for some people in this sub-forum. Should be watched more closely. Still 70+ hours out, but exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not only are we in for snow, but it looks like we could also be in for some pretty intense cold around the 14th-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Would rather this thing whiffed me to the south than bring slush to the north. At least the more southern parts of the subforum could get something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Would rather this thing whiffed me to the south than bring slush to the north. At least the more southern parts of the subforum could get something too. Yea, I have no use for rain/sleet/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Anyone know if the 12z euro also had the northward trend? 24hr maps FTL. Chitown Storm, you can check http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/and go to model data, select ECMWF, select continent view. You can see MSLP and 3-hr precipitation. Use the slider to control the forecast hour. The slider is the hard part. Yeah, it had snow near Duluth at 75-93 hours. Not sure you wanted to hear that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z GFS Ensemble Members QPF totals fwiw, looks like half are north and half are south, p007 would be juicy and fun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Would rather this thing whiffed me to the south than bring slush to the north. At least the more southern parts of the subforum could get something too. Biggest snowfall deficits in the subforum are Alpena, Duluth, Green Bay, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Per Ryan maue from twitter, he mentions that the system this weekend will have a lot of moisture with it thanks to the California storm. Something to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Main baroclinic snows will likely stay to our north but the 18z GFS once again shows how areas farther south could cash in a bit. Just way too many subtle features to play with right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Chitown Storm, you can check http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/and go to model data, select ECMWF, select continent view. You can see MSLP and 3-hr precipitation. Use the slider to control the forecast hour. The slider is the hard part. Yeah, it had snow near Duluth at 75-93 hours. Not sure you wanted to hear that though. Never knew this was there on wunderground. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Per Ryan maue from twitter, he mentions that the system this weekend will have a lot of moisture with it thanks to the California storm. Something to note. OT: Wow I just looked at the HPC 5 day QPF map and it showed 16" rain in North CA, Wow. Usually a big rain in CA means a good storm is coming here to MI, but that's just kind of anecdotally speaking not real science or stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Biggest snowfall deficits in the subforum are Alpena, Duluth, Green Bay, etc. Well, they look to be in good shape for this then...unless the northward trend continues, then congrats northwestern Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well, they look to be in good shape for this then...unless the northward trend continues, then congrats northwestern Ontario? There doesn't really seem to be any trend north or south yet overall, I can't wait until tomorrows 00z models come out, I am going to ride the new king the UKie when it is in range, it pulled 3 coups this season over the other models, and a did a great job on last nights clipper and todays snows south of here. I wonder if they did an upgrade to the UKie this season or something? it is completely on fire nailing storms right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 0z GFS says 'no go' for most of the subforum this weekend. Way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO QPF for the three waves looks like 0.7-0.8" for YYZ. Plus, there's potential for lake enhancement. And we've got some strong consensus amongst the models, save for the NAM which is way north. Main concern is that it's such a narrow swath of snow. Even slight adjustments N or S could mean major reductions in snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO QPF for the three waves looks like 0.7-0.8" for YYZ. Plus, there's potential for lake enhancement. And we've got some strong consensus amongst the models, save for the NAM which is way north. Main concern is that it's such a narrow swath of snow. Even slight adjustments N or S could mean major reductions in snowfall amounts. Looking good for you. Very questionable IMBY right now. As long as I can stay below freezing (which on the EURO and 6Z GFS is looking good) I will be a happy camper. I wouldn't be surprised to occasionally get a bout or 2 of snow/pl/zr. Main action north/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looking good for you. Very questionable IMBY right now. As long as I can stay below freezing (which on the EURO and 6Z GFS is looking good) I will be a happy camper. I wouldn't be surprised to occasionally get a bout or 2 of snow/pl/zr. Main action north/east. This reminds me of something you would see in April. Stalled front in extreme southern Michigan/northern Indiana/Ohio with a cool easterly surface wind up here while they're basking in warmth and southwest winds in South Bend. We probably wouldn't have the frozen precip in this situation in April but you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This reminds me of something you would see in April. Stalled front in extreme southern Michigan/northern Indiana/Ohio with a cool easterly surface wind up here while they're basking in warmth and southwest winds in South Bend. We probably wouldn't have the frozen precip in this situation in April but you get the point. Absolutely! I think I mentioned that else where that this was more like a spring (or March) type pattern coming up. This is how we typically get those March/April ice storms. Being February thankfully it will mostly be snow as I already had enough ZR this winter. With this type of pattern I would not be surprised to see things end a bit further south as in spring they typically never come as far north as modeled (though these new model formulas maybe different so I can't count on the old model bias). You look to be in a fairly good position to get some snow out it. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO QPF for the three waves looks like 0.7-0.8" for YYZ. Plus, there's potential for lake enhancement. And we've got some strong consensus amongst the models, save for the NAM which is way north. Main concern is that it's such a narrow swath of snow. Even slight adjustments N or S could mean major reductions in snowfall amounts. The UKIE is even more aggressive with 0.8-0.9" of QPF for Toronto but your right... its a very volatile setup given the narrowness of the snow swath. RE the LE potential, looks like the best threat so far this season for the GTA if track holds. Oakville/Hamilton/Etobicoke is probably sitting in the best spot but even a 100 degree flow can put the GTA well into the game. My biggest concern is inversion heights hovering around 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The 0z EPS/GEFS actually look a bit worse/further NE despite the growing OP consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 With this type of pattern I would not be surprised to see things end a bit further south as in spring they typically never come as far north as modeled (though these new model formulas maybe different so I can't count on the old model bias). You look to be in a fairly good position to get some snow out it. Good luck! Yeah, these type of events always seem to tread south in the days leading to the event. Many times I look forward to a nice warm april day only to have it stolen at the last minute by a south jog and I get 38 and cloudy instead. I'm livin on the edge, unless your look at the nam than I'm way to far south, of anything sig. as far as snow goes for this weekend. It would be nice to see a south jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yeah, these type of events always seem to tread south in the days leading to the event. Many times I look forward to a nice warm april day only to have it stolen at the last minute by a south jog and I get 38 and cloudy instead. I'm livin on the edge, unless your look at the nam than I'm way to far south, of anything sig. as far as snow goes for this weekend. It would be nice to see a south jog. Good thing is even if this weekend doesn't work out for you & I the models are showing this to be a pretty persistent pattern. The coming weeks look to be active in the GLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ended up with about 1.5" here. Top 5 event this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ended up with about 1.5" here. Top 5 event this winter! Wow you already know how much you ended up with on an event that starts tomorrow North/East of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Forecast 38 for Saturday, and 33 for Sunday. Skilling said a "possibility of ran showers, mixed with snow" for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The 0z EPS/GEFS actually look a bit worse/further NE despite the growing OP consensus. Yeah, the GEFS have really concerned me. That's a solid consensus of members to our NE for the main axis. Good news on another front....the 12z NAM looks like it's beginning to nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 not exactly a spread the wealth type pattern (basically, me and Josh_4184 cashing in), especially heading into mid feb but gfs says around 2' here in the next week in my little corner of the world... I'll take it. would like to see a 5' snowpack by mid/late March (currently 38-40")... not unheard of either. 7 day snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 not exactly a spread the wealth type pattern (basically, me and Josh_4184 cashing in), especially heading into mid feb but gfs says around 2' here in the next week in my little corner of the world... I'll take it. would like to see a 5' snowpack by mid/late March (currently 38-40")... not unheard of either. 7 day snowfall Wish we could slightly shift that south (not much) as there is too much Lake Superior fish food. I would like to see that map where MN, WI and all of MI were covered in pinks, reds, yellow and oranges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 All 12z guidance (except the NAM) shifted slightly north with the axis of snowfall. Now Toronto's on the southern fringe of the jackpot zone. Pattern still favours a slight southward correction so I'm not too concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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